Putting aside all the jokes about Russia’s underperformance and the grim videos of its men dying on the battlefield, they have massively built up their forces to 300,000. Even if their training is mediocre and half of their equipment is obsolescent, they’re still a formidable force. Ukraine’s generals predict a major Russian attack by the first anniversary of the invasion, February 24.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/
A large Russian attack against the town of “Vuhledar” failed, with heavy losses. Some think that battle, which started in late January, was the actual start of the feared Russian offensive.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-battle-vuhledar/32276547.html
What began a year ago as a “special military operation” that would take over Ukraine in a few weeks and then come home has turned into a full-fledged war involving 80 – 97% of the Russian Army’s ground forces.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nearly-russias-entire-army-ukraine-080854614.html
Russia’s planned increase in the size of its military to 1.5 million people by 2027 will fail because the country lacks enough young men for it. The country’s population has been shrinking and graying for decades now, and the problem accelerated thanks to COVID-19 and to the Ukraine War causing large numbers of its younger people to die or flee.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/demographic-challenges-weigh-russia-military-200000752.html
At a commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, Putin said “We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64502504
Apparently having run out of more advanced equipment, Russia is installing 1980s-era thermal sights in its T-62 and T-72 tanks.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-tanks-reverting-to-cold-war-thermal-sights
The U.S. government has formally accused Russia of committing multiple crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
https://apnews.com/article/us-russia-ukraine-crimes-against-humanity-harris-cee87f06cbf3fcdf37e0bb398360c8ee
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is deeply unpopular among the global community: In a recent U.N. vote, only six countries (almost all dictatorships) voted against a motion calling for Russia to stop fighting and withdraw its army from its neighbor.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/six-countries-join-russia-opposing-uns-resolution-peace-ukraine
Small bomber drones seem more effective than they really are due to survivorship bias: we don’t get to see the videos where the attack fails or the enemy shoots down the drone.
https://youtu.be/AlpZf1hpQYM
Former U.S. general Petraeus predicts the Ukraine War will end with a negotiated settlement once both sides become exhausted and realize neither is strong enough to totally defeat the other. I agree that’s the likeliest outcome.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
Inside the massive armored vehicle factory in Lima, Ohio that makes and refurbishes most of America’s tanks.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-technology-business-55e3f4ef1696ca381e069883d5836399
Here’s an overview of “oscillating” tank turrets, their pros and their cons.
https://youtu.be/46k7uhPHpLY
Military bandage technology has actually improved.
https://youtu.be/VpJCejdeyls
Rather than pay for its dismantlement, the Brazilian Navy sunk its old and only aircraft carrier over an Atlantic abyss.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-sinks-rusting-old-aircraft-carrier-atlantic-2023-02-04/
It’s amazing how hamstrung the U.S. submarines were by their defective torpedoes and bureaucratic stubbornness in fixing them for the first half of WWII.
https://youtu.be/KSDtGXW7J7I
Russia’s fearsome Typhoon class submarines are now extinct.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-last-giant-typhoon-class-submarines-fate-may-finally-be-sealed
Fighter plane dogfights are incredibly rare in real life, and when they do happen, the opposing planes only get close to each other for brief instants. Prolonged, tight-turning engagements only happen in movies.
https://youtu.be/cbEBr0DDKWQ
As I’ve said before, we can breathe new life into old or obsolete weapons like the F-16 by jerry-rigging them with robot operators. Even if the weapon is destroyed, it will be of little consequence since no one cares about machines. If used right, such weapons could still make a difference on the battlefield against more advanced opponents.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11758189/Self-flying-fighter-jet-takes-fights-against-aircraft-lands-without-human-help.html
The concept behind CAMELEON active camouflage is simple, and though it was never used, I believe it will return once the technology is better and cheaper.
https://youtu.be/zLdNeatXCvE
‘A pure fusion weapon is a hypothetical hydrogen bomb design that does not need a fission “primary” explosive to ignite the fusion of deuterium and tritium, two heavy isotopes of hydrogen used in fission-fusion thermonuclear weapons. Such a weapon would require no fissile material and would therefore be much easier to develop in secret than existing weapons.’
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon
The U.S. was gripped by news of a Chinese spy balloon overflight, followed by its shootdown by a U.S. fighter plane. This was quickly followed by three more similar incidents, and speculation that some of the other objects were actually UFOs.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-yet-at-the-chinese-spy-balloons-massive-payload
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/joe-biden-addresses-nation-ufos-chinese-spy-balloon-watch-live-stream-today-2023-02-16/
Two Air Force veterans who claim they saw a UFO disable several nuclear weapons at their base in 1967 have testified about their accounts to the Pentagon’s new UFO task force. They actually went public with their stories decades ago, but never attracted interest from the government until now.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11776279/Vanderbilt-apologizes-using-ChatGPT-write-email-students-MSU-mass-shooting.html
Here’s a highly credible pilot who discusses the UFOs he’s seen on the job.
https://youtu.be/yVrn9-nRcno
Twenty years ago, the Shuttle Columbia burned up in orbit, killing seven astronauts. Had the hole in the wing been found while the craft was in orbit, NASA may have been able to rescue the crew.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/the-audacious-rescue-plan-that-might-have-saved-space-shuttle-columbia-2/
Virgin Galactic is being sued by a group of investors who claim Richard Branson has covered up how unsafe its its spaceships are.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jan/14/richard-branson-virgin-galactic-passengers-space
Newly developed “toroidal” propellers are much quieter and more efficient than traditional propellers.
https://youtu.be/MGy8jvf-DZ0
‘By replacing around 60 welded components with a single module, gigantic aluminium die casting machines made by the likes of Tesla supplier IDRA Group are helping carmakers to simplify manufacturing and cut costs by up to 40% in some areas.’
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gigapresses-giant-die-casts-reshaping-072019676.html
This guy proposes building geothermal power plants over the Yellowstone caldera to generate energy and to cool the caldera down enough to prevent the supervolcano from ever erupting.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122012290
There is such a thing as “diminishing returns to intelligence.” For example, a futuristic AI would have no advantage in a tic-tac-toe game against an average human.
https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/can-a-paperclip-maximizer-overthrow
“ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI, is estimated to have reached 100 million monthly active users in January, just two months after launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history”
https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/
Israel’s President gave a speech partially written by ChatGPT.
https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/tech-and-start-ups/article-730257
A man used ChatGPT to auto-generate conservative responses to liberal Twitter users in an argument about Food Stamps. The liberals were infuriated and had no clue they were dealing with a machine. It could have kept them tied up arguing forever.
https://bullfrogreview.substack.com/p/honey-i-hacked-the-empathy-machine
Two deans at Vanderbilt University were suspended after being caught using ChatGPT to write a mass email about the emotional impact of a recent mass shooting.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11776279/Vanderbilt-apologizes-using-ChatGPT-write-email-students-MSU-mass-shooting.html
ChatGPT spits out some surprisingly wise answers to a futurist’s questions.
https://futuristspeaker.com/artificial-intelligence/chatgpts-mind-boggling-responses-to-ten-unanswerable-questions/
Microsoft “lobotomized” its Bing Chat bot after users complained about its disturbing comments to them.
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/02/microsoft-lobotomized-ai-powered-bing-chat-and-its-fans-arent-happy/
Google has introduced its counter to ChatGPT, called “Bard.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-opens-testing-of-chatgpt-rival-as-artificial-intelligence-war-heats-up-11675711198
The Chinese search engine “Baidu” plans to introduce its counter to ChatGPT next month.
https://apnews.com/article/technology-science-baidu-inc-china-artificial-intelligence-427838070f962108cabed1e553fc3d12
‘Restaurant uses AI bot ChatGPT to create RECIPES for its pizzas – what it came up with is incredible’
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/21333640/restaurant-ai-chatgdp-create-recipes-pizzas/
A good example of how humans unconsciously move the goalposts for “true intelligence” higher whenever machines get smarter. ‘When I showed my friends the sonnet by ChatGPT, they called it “soulless and barren.” Despite following all the rules for sonnets, the poem is cliche and predictable. But is the average sonnet by a human any better? Turing imagined asking a computer for poetry to see if it could think like a person. If we now expect computers to write not just poems but good poems, then we have set a much higher bar.’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2023/02/13/ai-in-poetry/
Morgan Stanley thinks GPT-5 is already been created in secret.
https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1625140481016340483
‘Nvidia predicts AI models one million times more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years’
https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-predicts-ai-models-one-million-times-more-powerful-than-chatgpt-within-10-years/
The algorithms that underpin AI software have been getting more efficient.
https://openai.com/research/ai-and-efficiency
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/75dnjiD8kv2khe9eQ/measuring-hardware-overhang
Machine learning systems are getting smarter, but it’s also costing more money to create them. Once the cost rises beyond a certain level, progress will slow down.
https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-the-dollar-training-cost-of-machine-learning-systems
The failure of machine learning to significantly advance the field of chemistry suggests that much of the training data we’ve given it is flawed. A huge number of lab experiments will need to be redone more carefully to fix the mistakes.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/cleaning-basements-and-attics-organic-chemistry
The strongest military will someday be the one that totally automates itself to make the more efficient use of its resources, to design and field the best weapons, and to employ the best strategies and tactics. If the DoD still has a lumbering bureaucracy in 50 years that slows down and messes up every idea suggested by its military AIs, it will lead to disaster. Of course, turning over all military decisions except perhaps the very top ones could also lead to disaster. If we don’t do it, though, China, Russia, or some other country will. We’re locked in a race with no way out but to run faster and faster.
https://www.wired.com/story/eric-schmidt-is-building-the-perfect-ai-war-fighting-machine/
Here are some useful guidelines for making predictions about specific technologies.
https://gwern.net/forking-path
The proteins that our cells synthesize every second are probably optimal or close to optimal.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/making-proteins
‘The T2T consortium used new DNA sequencing technologies and analytical methods to generate and assemble the remaining 8-10% of the human genome sequence. However, the researchers assembled those fragments manually — a process that took this massive and highly skilled team several years to complete. Verkko can finish the same task in a couple of days.’
https://www.genome.gov/news/news-release/nih-software-assembles-complete-genome-sequences-on-demand
Chinese geneticists cloned three “Holstein Friesian” cows, which make 1.7 times more milk than the typical American cow.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/01/business/china-super-cow-cloning-intl-hnk-scn/index.html
‘The Energy Department now joins the Federal Bureau of Investigation in saying the virus likely spread via a mishap at a Chinese laboratory. Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission, and two are undecided.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a
U.S. public health authorities might have made costly, avoidable mistakes when dealing with COVID-19.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/anti-lockdown-great-barrington-declaration-vindicated-but-much-too-late