A prediction that failed to come true was that Putin would officially declare war on Ukraine during Russia’s May 9 military celebrations.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/europe/russia-ukraine-declaration-of-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
This prediction that Putin would declare “victory” over Ukraine on May 9 also failed.
https://www.newsweek.com/exiled-russian-official-certain-putin-will-claim-victory-may-9th-1698023
A car bomb meant to kill a famous Russian ultra-nationalist author and political scientist instead killed his adult daughter, who was following in her father’s career footsteps. The Russian government blames Ukrainian agents, but there is no real proof yet.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/20/europe/darya-dugina-killed-car-explosion-alexander-dugin-russia-intl-hnk/index.html
Last month, an explosion at a POW camp housing Ukrainian soldiers killed over 50 of them. Their Russian jailers blamed a Ukrainian missile strike, but photographic analysis indicates this is false.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/08/europe/olenivka-donetsk-prison-attack/index.html
Ukraine has become a carnival of disparate types of military vehicles and weapons donated by many other countries.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/antique-ferret-armored-car-shows-up-in-ukraine
Ukraine’s recent attack on a Russian airbase in Crimea caused less damage than originally claimed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/no-major-damage-seen-at-russian-airbase-in-crimea-after-reported-attack
Belgium’s paltry aid to Ukraine shows the poor state of its own military.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/08/a-show-of-shame-belgian-weapons.html
Russia’s military losses in the Ukraine War are about $34 billion so far. If the War ended today, Russia could replace its losses over the next five years if it raised its defense budget by 12%, which would be a tolerable strain on its economy and taxpayers. It could replace its armored vehicle losses by upgrading old tanks that have been in storage for decades, and by increasing production rates of new vehicles at existing factories. However, the War isn’t going to end today, and it and the associated sanctions could instead turn into a massive resource drain that depletes even Russia’s famously large stockpiles of old weapons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SJHZAG4c2w
Putin has ordered the Russian army to expand by 13%, or 137,000 men, by the end of this year. This is certainly meant to make up for the country’s losses sustained so far in Ukraine (at least 15,000 dead and some multiple of that permanently put out of action by injury), plus those expected to be lost during the next four months.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-and-politics-d0f341d2f5c295c0f7be4ee1ba8b60fe
Ukrainian military forces have made a habit of positioning themselves needlessly close to civilians, either hoping that the proximity would dissuade the Russians from firing on them, or that Russian attacks would accidentally kill civilians, eliciting sympathy from the West.
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/05/1115767497/amnesty-international-ukraine-military-civilians-war-crimes
China was infuriated when Nancy Pelosi, the third-highest-ranking politician in the U.S., visited Taiwan. China’s military staged massive military exercises in response to intimidate the island and America.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/asia/china-taiwan-military-exercises-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
Taiwan’s tanks are old, but still adequate for their intended defensive role. This is because if China invaded, it would only be able to send its light amphibious tanks to the island, and they have weak armor and only average guns. Taiwan’s tanks are a match for them. That said, Taiwan could substantially improve its loss/kill ratios in such a conflict by buying newer, better thanks now. The video makes it clear that a mixed force of modern, heavy M1 Abrams tanks and a much lighter armored vehicle would dominate the Chinese amphibious tanks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf2JYLlqoCE
A new tabletop exercise finds that American and Taiwanese forces could repel an all-out Chinese invasion of the island, but at high cost.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/chinas-drills-to-change-us-military-assumptions/
Here’s an in-depth analysis of the Russian AK-107 assault rifle, which has a complex “balanced recoil system” that its designers claim almost eliminates felt recoil. In reality, it doesn’t yield enough of a benefit to justify the extra cost, complexity, weight, and reliability penalties that it imposes on an AK rifle. Screwing a simple compensator onto the end of the barrel is a much better way to improve the weapon’s controllability. Like so many advanced Russian weapons, the AK-107’s mystique dissolves once Westerners are able to get their hands on it and do tests and analyses. This is why you should be skeptical of Russia’s claims to have things like working hypersonic missiles and nuclear torpedoes that can make tsunamis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5LTiCZwEOo
Here’s a nifty new device: rubber bands that go around the barrels of rifles and change colors as they get hotter. Gun barrels warm up as more bullets are shot through them, which temporarily warps the metal and changes the trajectories of the bullets. A shooter could adjust his aim accordingly if he could tell at a glance how hot his barrel was.
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2022/08/25/caveman-spark-ar-15-crush-washers/
The USSR’s legendary T-34 tank was overrated in many ways. These men go inside one and show how fundamentally unsafe and uncomfortable it was for its crewmen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBqCLHfcHGY
The U.S. has an enormous economy of scale advantage when it comes to the defense sector, that in turn guarantees the global primacy of American weapons. It makes no economic sense for countries will smaller economies to even try developing their own high-end weapons like fighter planes.
https://youtu.be/7Z_gTGJc7nQ
I agree with all of Henry Kissinger’s opinions about U.S. foreign policy, China and Russia.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/henry-kissinger-is-worried-about-disequilibrium-11660325251
Quantum supremacy has been lost…for now.
https://www.science.org/content/article/ordinary-computers-can-beat-google-s-quantum-computer-after-all
Recent advances in computer-generated art, writing, and other types of content creation suggest a deluge of high-quality, customized digital content is coming in the near future. Maybe humans will end up living in billions of Matrix simulations, with each one optimized for the needs and tastes of each human.
https://socialwarming.substack.com/p/the-approaching-tsunami-of-addictive
Google has unveiled experimental house robots that can obey human voice commands to do simple tasks like handing people cans of soda. I’m surprised that machines haven’t mastered such skills, yet can now create artwork as well as the best humans. Expect more counterintuitive improvements to machine capabilities as time passes. It won’t be like in the movies.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/ok-google-get-me-coke-ai-giant-demos-soda-fetching-robots-2022-08-16/
These plumbing leak sensors are all impractical due to cost and/or limited leak detection ability. A much better alternative to hooking up an electronic water flow meter to each water fixture in your house would be to have a robot walk around and check them once a week. You could probably get away with doing it much less often than that. You’d get the most bang for your buck by having a robot monitor your house’s water meter during periods of time when no water was being used in your house, like multi-hour stretches when you were away at work. If the meter showed water consumption was happening during those times, the robot would know a pipe was leaking somewhere in your house, and it would look for it.
https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/smart-gadgets-save-homes-from-water-leaks/
Here’s a fascinating interview with world-renowned cosmologist and thinker Martin Rees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50r-5ULcWgY
We still have no good explanations for the recent, high-profile UFO sightings by U.S. military people.
https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/mystery-of-the-damn-things/
NASA has chosen landing sites near the Moon’s south pole that its astronauts will visit during this decade’s missions there.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-08-19/nasa-reveals-where-next-americans-land-moon-7040435.html
‘The Moon is an ideal location to launch intercepting missions to life-threatening and catastrophic asteroids. The effectiveness of the interception greatly depends on the weight of the spacecraft. Unfortunately, interceptors launched from the Earth lose more than 98% of their weight by burning the majority of their onboard fuel and by jettisoning their lower stage structures before entering a heliocentric orbit. However, if interceptors are launched from the Moon by a lunar surface accelerator, they can enter a heliocentric orbit without consuming any onboard fuel or jettisoning any part of the spacecraft. A 5-ton construction package, which consists of robots and industrial production equipment, would enable mining on the moon and construction of a 3.5 km-long, 5,000-ton accelerator.’
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468896717300617
Here’s a Twitter thread about advances in hydrogen energy technology.
https://twitter.com/gnievchenko/status/1545409816130207744
Batteries only need to get a little bit better for it to make financial sense to convert smaller cargo ships to use electric engines. Today, those ships use diesel engines that burn very dirty fuel and are very polluting.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01065-y
Solar panels will be installed over canals in California, reducing evaporation and unwanted plant growth.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-solar-panels-canals-drought/
For the first time, Americans spent more time watching internet-streaming video than cable TV.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-spent-more-time-streaming-than-watching-cable-tv-in-julya-first-11660827184
Like wildfires, floods are natural events that are part of nature’s cycle of renewal. Floods only became “problems” once humans started building structures too close to rivers and lakes.
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/many-effects-flooding
Large volcanic eruptions are a greater threat to Earth and humans than asteroid impacts, yet the latter gets more attention and more preventative funding. We should spend more money to monitor volcanoes and investigate the feasibility of defusing volcanoes before they erupt by drilling ventilation holes into their magma chambers.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02177-x
This year’s massive volcanic eruption in Tonga put so much water vapor into the stratosphere that it will temporarily worsen global warming by a tiny amount.
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming
An unmanned boat, remotely piloted by people on the other side of the world, has been using sonar to map the underwater volcano in Tonga.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62606589
“Kale, Brussels sprouts, cauliflower, and cabbage are all varieties of a single magical plant species.” This makes me wonder what new types of plants with new flavor profiles are possible with genetic engineering and selective breeding.
https://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/8/6/5974989/kale-cauliflower-cabbage-broccoli-same-plant
The human eye and its associated nerves and muscles have many design flaws. Octopi and squid actually have better-evolved eyes than we do. Radically redesigned eyes are a good example of a improvement that our descendants will have in the future, courtesy of genetic engineering. Externally, their eyes will look like ours, but the amount of genetic reprogramming necessary to make theirs will be so great that they won’t have Homo sapiens genomes.
https://evolution-outreach.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1007/s12052-008-0092-1
Lab-made corneas composed of collagen extracted from pigs cured blindness in several people with “keratoconus.”
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/artificial-cornea-cure-blindness-12082022/
The first synthetic mouse embryos, which were made from only the mother’s DNA, have been created. This or another technique will eventually be used on humans, and will allow single people to conceive children regardless of their own natural fertility status, and without need of a partner’s DNA. It will also inaugurate an era of unauthorized human cloning, where DNA samples of unwitting third parties will be surreptitiously collected and then traded on black markets.
https://apnews.com/article/synthetic-mouse-embryos-created-7f75da0c53f9d22c4e4dbf8a847d75bf
In the long run, the slowdown in the human population growth rate and possible decline is nothing to worry about. Technology will provide solutions to it.
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/slightly-against-underpopulation
The leading theory about what causes Alzheimer’s disease–agglomerations of protein plaques in the spaces between brain cells–might be wrong. In fact, a seminal scientific paper supporting the theory might be full of fraudulent data. Billions of dollars have been spent developing Alzheimer’s drugs that target the protein plaques in the brain, and all have failed to help patients. If a scientist’s deliberate fraud caused this, then I think it should be considered a crime against humanity.
https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabrication-research-images-threatens-key-theory-alzheimers-disease
Minoxidil was approved as a hair loss treatment in 1988, and came as a liquid that men sprayed on their scalps. Recently, doctors have discovered that putting the medicine into swallowable pills is more effective. It’s remarkable that no one thought of this sooner.
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/an-old-medicine-grows-new-hair-for-pennies-a-day-doctors-say/