Interesting articles, September 2021

Humans have only domesticated about 150 plants, even though a far greater number of plants are edible. Moreover, just wheat, rice and corn make up 2/3 of the world’s calories. Some scientists are trying to domesticate new plants, like “kernza”, to improve food security and stimulate the human palate with new tastes. I think the future of food will be more diverse, healthier, and tastier than the present.
https://www.wired.com/2014/06/potato-bean/

Chinese scientists found a way to turn CO2 into starch in a lab eight times faster than corn plants can do it. However, it’s unclear whether their method is as energy efficient as photosynthesis. In the far future, most of our food will be synthesized in factories and labs.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3150453/chinese-scientists-have-found-new-way-make-starch-lab-could-it

Though the cost of making lab-grown meat has significantly decreased, it’s questionable whether the trend will continue at the rates various proponents claim. Note that, in my own predictions, I don’t foresee synthetic meat displacing natural meat until the end of this century.
https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/

Here’s an interesting and haunting colorized video of a long-extinct Tasmanian tiger.
https://newatlas.com/science/thylacine-colorized-4k-video-extinct/

Ultraviolet lights will become more common for killing airborne pathogens.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/09/air-filtration-and-uv-disinfection-greatly-reduce-viruses-in-hospital-wards.html
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201214164328.htm

A computer algorithm connected to a basic webcam can, by sight, identify whether objects can be recycled, with 95% accuracy. There’s no reason why we couldn’t someday program one machine to recognize every kind of manmade object.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2288627-ai-accurately-identifies-whether-objects-can-be-recycled-from-a-glance/

Tesla has improved its self-driving car technology, though end users disagree over how big the difference is.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/09/tesla-fsd-10-testers-agree-a-large-improvement-has-been-delivered.html

The bicycle and the cotton gin could have been invented decades earlier than they were. Are there any gaps in today’s corpus of human technology that we’ll only become aware of decades from now?
https://rootsofprogress.org/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-bicycle

Advances in drilling technology could make geothermal energy much cheaper and more widespread.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/10/21/21515461/renewable-energy-geothermal-egs-ags-supercritical

Parts of the ocean floor are covered in rocks made of valuable metals. It’s just laying out in the open. Long-stalled plans to use remote-controlled robots to mine them might be coming to fruition.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/03/1031434711/your-next-car-may-be-built-with-ocean-rocks-scientists-cant-agree-if-thats-good

Ocean acidification, driven by global warming, is less damaging to coral reef ecosystems than thought.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1903-y

Cephalopods (squid, octopi, cuttlefish) have more evolved eyes than advanced vertebrates, including humans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cephalopod_eye

There’s a new computer program that can predict protein structures even better than AlphaFold.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/another-way-do-protein-structure-prediction

“Thomson Reuters'” 2016 predictions for which new and upcoming drugs would be big sellers are turning out to be only somewhat accurate.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/2016-crystal-ball-needed-polishing

The Pfizer vaccine against COVID-19 has raised unrealistic hopes about the near-term prospects of other mRNA vaccines for other diseases.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/mrna-s-history–and-its-future

Americans living with HIV could have the same life expectancy as those without’
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/562283-americans-living-with-hiv-have-the-same-life-expectancy

People who survived the Chernobyl nuclear disaster were actually no likelier than average to later have children with genetic mutations.
https://www.science.org/content/article/no-excess-mutations-children-chernobyl-survivors-new-study-finds

China has banned genetically engineered humans, human clones, and human-animal genetic hybrids.
https://biohackinfo.com/news-china-gene-editing-criminal-law-article-336-march-2021/

‘[Globally] more than 700 million living humans are the offspring of second cousins or closer relatives. In some regions, the rate of such unions reaches 20–60%.’
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25289-w

A feud between a divorced husband and wife over the division of their marital assets boiled over when the woman raided the man’s human cryonics business and stole several dozen frozen corpses and human brains. The pair founded the company, located near Moscow, together during their marriage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9978003/Cryogenically-frozen-bodies-brains-rich-people-SNATCHED-Russian-lab.html

The F-5 fighter first flew in 1959. Its descendants are still in service and being upgraded, in spite of being decades old. As impressive and as efficient as the F-5 is, though, the plane’s small size and lack of any stealth fundamentally limit how good it can be.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42507/first-navy-f-5-aggressor-begins-upgrade-that-will-make-the-entire-fleet-far-more-potent

In 1994, a still-secret American stealth plane might have had an accident at a British airbase in “Boscombe Down.”
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37371/the-boscombe-down-incident-remains-one-of-military-aviations-most-intriguing-mysteries

Pentagon scientists throw cold water on the notion that quantum radar could render stealth planes obsolete.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40933/quantum-radar-offers-no-benefits-to-the-military-say-pentagon-science-advisors

During the most recent fighting against Gaza, Israel made the first military use of “drone swarms.” The swarms were made of dozens or even hundreds of quadcopters, which used cameras to watch different parts of Gaza for terrorist rocket and mortar launches. Most of the drones were not directly controlled by human operators, and were programmed to autonomously operate.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-apparent-world-first-idf-deployed-drone-swarms-in-gaza-fighting/

During its recent war with Armenia, Azerbaijan’s air force converted dozens of obsolete biplanes into remote-controlled drones, and then flew these over Armenian military positions. The Armenians took the bait by shooting the old planes down, depleting their antiaircraft missiles and revealing the positions of their missile launchers in the process.
https://www.overtdefense.com/2020/10/05/azerbaijan-reportedly-convert-ancient-an-2-biplanes-into-drones/

Lockheed’s AH-56 “Cheyenne” was an extremely advanced attack helicopter prototype the U.S. Army considered adopting in the early 1970s. The gunner’s seat could rotate 360 degrees along with a 30mm cannon hanging under the craft, letting him keep the weapon pointed at a target regardless of the helicopter’s overall orientation.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40014/the-cheyenne-attack-helicopter-had-a-crazy-rotating-gunners-seat-right-out-of-star-wars

Economic reality has slapped the U.S. military in the face again: It has reduced its order for Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs), each of which is more expensive than a Bentley, to buy more Humvees even though JLTVs were originally planned to fully replace the former.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41439/joint-light-tactical-vehicle-funds-redirected-by-army-once-again-to-buy-new-humvees

A former head of the CIA, James Woolsey, says he is open to the existence of intelligent aliens and knows a credible person who encountered a UFO during a plane flight.
https://nypost.com/2021/04/06/former-cia-director-says-he-believes-ufos-could-exist-report/

The “Incessant Obsolescence Postulate” says that colony ships traveling to distant planets will be overtaken by faster colony ships launched later and incorporating better technology.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.1066

A manned mission to Mars would need to be kept under four years in length to prevent the astronauts from being exposed to dangerous amounts of radiation. And here’s an interesting tidbit:  ‘The modeling determined that having a spacecraft’s shell built out of a relatively thick material could help protect astronauts from radiation, but that if the shielding is too thick, it could actually increase the amount of secondary radiation to which they are exposed.’
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/safe-for-humans-fly-to-mars

Elon Musk wasn’t the first entrant into the billionaire private space race (Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos beat him), but his venture into it was probably the most impressive. A SpaceX capsule took four civilian astronauts into Earth orbit for three days, and at an even higher altitude than the International Space Station.
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-travel-florida-science–657f49b1d7c4c914cc81308118fb1573

‘From the standpoint of the defense and firearms industries, if such a material [as “metallic wood”] can be built to a sufficient thickness, matching the claimed characteristics and at a reasonable cost, it may allow developing a wide variety of revolutionary new products: body and vehicle armor, exoskeletons, small arms, projectiles, unmanned vehicles, fighter jets, submarines … you name it.’
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2019/04/11/metallic-wood-new-material-that-is-as-strong-as-titanium-but-5-times-lighter/

Unless a new, worse strain of COVID-19 emerges, infections and deaths will keep steadily declining for the foreseeable future, and there won’t be a winter surge.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/22/1039272244/is-the-worst-over-modelers-predict-a-steady-decline-in-covid-cases-through-march

Why America will go Metric, but it might not matter

As an American and a person with an OCD streak, my country’s use of the Imperial system of weights and measures has long bothered me. The Metric system is simply superior, and it pains and embarrasses me to think about how much my country’s stubbornness hurts global commerce and confuses millions of people the world over each day.

How many car accidents happen because drivers visiting another country confuse kilometers per hour with miles per hour, or vice versa? How much U.S. – foreign trade is made impossible by manufacturers on either side of the border making their products to simple, whole-number measurements (like 12 ounce cans of soda) under their national systems?

The human factor is behind all of this. Like anyone else, Americans find it hard to shake old habits, and the use of the Imperial system is one of them. Humans have an instinctive aversion to change, even if they know in the abstract that a change will benefit them. Moreover, our limited brainpower imposes real hardship to learning new standards of weights and measures. Most American adults who are only used to the Imperial system would, even if forced to use Metric, never fully adapt, and would continue thinking in pounds, miles, and degrees Fahrenheit until the day they died, and would use imperfect heuristics in the interim to guess what the right Metric value was. This phenomenon–in which an old standard becomes fixed in place because the up-front costs of changing it are perceived to be too high even though something superior is known to exist–is called “path dependence.”

But what happens when human stubbornness and human cognitive limitations stop being factors? What happens when technology provides workarounds, or renders different national standards moot, or lowers the costs of changing them to affordable levels? For example, once autonomous cars are ubiquitous and humans don’t drive anymore, what would be the harm in changing all the road signs in America to indicate distances in kilometers and speed limits in kilometers per hour (kph)? Since humans aren’t driving anymore, there’s no longer any potential for Americans to get confused by the units of measurement written on road signs.

And even if the road signs weren’t changed and continued making reference to miles and miles per hour, what would it matter? Human passengers wouldn’t need to look at the signs anyhow, and probably wouldn’t even want to glance at them since it would distract them from watching videos or playing video games on their personal devices.

The consequences of using the Imperial system for weight and volume measurements will also diminish with time. Aside from weighing their own bodies on scales, Americans only think about weight and volume when buying gasoline and groceries. As electric cars become the standard, and as machines do more shopping and at-home food preparation for people, Americans will lose any instinctive grasp of how big a gallon, pound or ounce is, and the machine-run economy will be able to quietly transition to the Metric system without confusing anyone since everyone will be too busy playing VR games or doing recreational drugs to ever think about it.

The American use of the Fahrenheit scale is already not very consequential since people mostly only think about temperature when looking at weather forecasts. People commonly view those forecasts on their smartphones, making it possible for individuals to remain ensconced in their own Fahrenheit or Celsius information bubbles wherever they go, without anyone around them being the wiser. People also have to think about temperature when baking meals, but as I pointed out, machines will take over those tasks in the future, freeing humans from having to think about it. The U.S. could officially switch to the Celsius scale now if it wanted to, with minimal disruption or benefit.

The color-coded graphic shows the frequency of key strikes on a QWERTY keyboard and DVORAK keyboard. The DVORAK’s layout clusters the most-used letters right where the user’s fingers rest.

Relatedly, the QWERTY keyboard is an example of a suboptimal technology whose use is locked-in. Alternative keyboards, notably the DVORAK, are better since they place the most commonly-used keys directly under where the typist’s fingers rest, reducing the finger and wrist movements needed to type words. As a result, a person trained to use a DVORAK keyboard can type faster than one trained to use a QWERTY keyboard. Letter frequency distributions across languages that use the Latin alphabet like English, French, and even Turkish, are surprisingly similar to each other, meaning DVORAK or some close derivative of it would be the optimal keyboard for them all.

Across all languages making use of the Latin alphabet, the letters e, a, i, n, o, r, s, and t comprise at least half of all written text. A keyboard layout that clustered eight keys corresponding to those eight letters centrally would be optimal for all of those users.

So why doesn’t the Western world switch to DVORAK keyboards? Blame the human factor again. As the small number of people who have switched from QWERTY to DVORAK can attest, it takes a lot of time and effort to re-train the muscle memory in your fingers to adapt to a new layout. Humans are bad at learning new things and forcing themselves to forget old habits. Not so for robots, who will be able to adapt to any new keyboard layout instantly. In fact, they probably wouldn’t use keyboards at all and would instead directly interface their minds with other machines to wirelessly input commands, as would humans who had computer implants in their brains. In short, even a locked-in device like the QWERTY keyboard will eventually give way to something better because users will get capable enough to switch to new keyboards, or will evolve beyond the need for any type of keyboards. (And in the nearer term, greater use of continuous speech recognition (CSR) and improvements to autocomplete algorithms will also minimize the importance of typing skills.)

Returning to the example of autonomous cars, it’s clear that they would mollify the effects of another inconsistent standard–the side of the road cars have to drive on. Differences between countries stymie trade, as it’s very hard for truck drivers accustomed to driving on one side of the road to mentally switch to doing the opposite once they cross a border, and because cars themselves must have their layouts configured for right- or left-handed driving, adding to costs.

In red countries, people drive on the right side of the road, and in blue countries, they drive on the left.

However, autonomous vehicles could, at the flick of a switch, adapt from one driving orientation to another with no problem at all. And since they wouldn’t be designed to accept human commands, the cars wouldn’t have steering wheels, pedals, or a special position for a human driver (there would only be two passenger seats in the front row), meaning an autonomous car meant for sale in, say, Britain, would have the same internal layout as a car meant for sale in France.

Thanks to technology, transnational differences in what sides of the road cars must drive on could persist indefinitely, without imposing any costs or inconvenience. Of course, other inconsistent standards would defy technological workarounds. One that springs to mind is differences in railroad track gauges, which is how far apart the two rails are. Rail cars and locomotives must have their wheels spaced properly to engage with the tracks, so rolling stock configured for one gauge can’t operate on railroad networks using a different gauge. This hurts trade between countries like Russia and China since export cargo has to be unloaded at their border from trains using one country’s gauge to trains using the other gauge.

This map shows how wide the railroads are in different countries.

The only solution to this problem is to physically widen or narrow existing railroads until they are a different gauge, and to make corresponding modifications to the wheels of train cars and locomotives. It can be done, but it’s expensive work, partly because of the disruptions in rail service that happen while everything is being changed. For that reason, very few countries now find it worthwhile to change their railroad gauges.

However, free machine labor will change that calculus in the distant future. Robots will inevitably do every type of work cheaper and better than humans, and will eventually number in the hundreds of millions or even billions. Such an enormous labor force, willing to work for free and without complaint, would make hitherto uneconomical projects possible (I discussed this in my I, Robot review and how it would lead to the construction of a lot of new infrastructure). For example, fifty years from now, if Spain voted to switch to the “Standard Gauge” used by the rest of Europe, the project might last a month and simply entail every household agreeing to loan their robot butlers to the government for a few hours each day to work in teams narrowing nearby segments of railroad or narrowing the wheel distances of train cars. If this sounds silly, realize that something like this was done in the American south in 1886: over just two days, thousands of men across the region changed the gauge of 11,500 miles of track to match what we being used in the northern states.

In all European countries, the “mains electricity” is 230 V and 50 hz. However, different national standards for electrical plugs make it impossible to use one electrical device in all European countries. In theory, they could all switch to one type of plug to solve the problem.

The lack of a global standard for electrical plugs and outlets is also a drag on commerce, particularly in Europe where there are six different national standards. Not only is it annoying for travelers who find their electronic device plugs don’t fit into wall sockets, it is costly for manufacturers of said devices since they need to made different versions for different countries, or include plug adapters with their products.

Fortunately, there is a Europe-wide standard for mains electricity, meaning the power coming out of all electrical outlets on the continent is 230 volts at 50 hertz. As such, it would be possible for all of Europe to switch to a single type of electric outlet, though this is again foiled by the high costs of replacing several billion outlets (a simple task, I assure you from experience, but very intimidating for someone who has never done it). Again, ubiquitous robot labor could overcome the problem. Every household’s robot butler would count the number of electrical outlets in his house, tell the government, wait to receive a shipment of new electrical outlets, and then install the new outlets over the course of a day or two.

I don’t have the time to discuss every single productivity- and trade-sapping inefficiency that springs from nonuniform or suboptimal standards, so I’ll leave it to you to imagine how technology could overcome them as well in the future. And also know that intelligent machines and our much smarter posthuman descendants will have it within their power not just to sweep aside the inefficiencies we’ve created, but to upgrade to new, global (and truly universal) standards that are more efficient that anything we have conceived of. Gifted with greater powers of rationality and self-control, the intelligent beings of the future could do things like create new languages and alphabets that convey information more efficiently than any we humans have made so far. Thanks to some properties of electricity, there might be a specific voltage / frequency combination that is optimal for electrical grids, but which we haven’t implemented because it’s something weird like 183.04 V / 49.92 hz.

There might even be something better than the Metric system. One of the glories of that system is that it is entirely base-10, whereas the Imperial system’s units don’t follow any consistent scaling pattern (e.g. – there are 8 ounces in 1 cup, 16 ounces in 1 pint, 32 ounces in 1 quart, and 128 ounces in 1 gallon). But base-10 systems of measurement are only useful because humans are terrible at doing math in their heads, and because we have ten fingers to count on. A being with superhuman intelligence could just as easily use the Imperial system, or a system that hasn’t been invented yet that was not base-10 (I happen to think base-12 systems are superior) and maybe had some of the inconsistent aspects of the Imperial system.

Just take heart, fellow OCD people of the world. Our day is coming!

Links:

  1. In 1886, American workers using only simple tools changed the width of 11,500 miles of railroad track in two days.
    http://southern.railfan.net/ties/1966/66-8/gauge.html
  2. The DVORAK keyboard is better than the QWERTY keyboard.
    https://thekindle3books.com/qwerty-vs-dvorak-the-two-great-keyboards-the-time-were-born/

Interesting articles, August 2021

Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban. With shocking speed and ease, the central government in Kabul collapsed, and Islamist fighters took the city over, along with all the other significant cities in the countries. America’s nearly 20-year-old nation building project has ended in a stinging defeat. The optics of the U.S. evacuation were also terrible.
https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-islamic-state-group-e10e038baea732dae879c11234507f81
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jq7gP0KiL1E

Here’s a timeline of important milestones over the last six months in Afghanistan:

Most of Afghanistan’s air force defected to Uzbekistan.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42040/dozens-of-u-s-bought-afghan-air-force-aircraft-are-now-orphaned-at-an-uzbek-airfield

Is Afghanistan really a “Graveyard of Empires”?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/28/afghanistan-graveyard-britain-us-russia-506990

“China in ten years will not exist as a functional nation-state.” [I’m deeply skeptical, but I admire the boldness of the prediction.]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIFly9M8K80

India now has two aircraft carriers, but it’s questionable whether they need them. In a war with Pakistan, India’s existing land bases will be sufficient for launching airstrikes, and in a war with China, India would cause the same damage at lower cost if it invested in attack subs and destroyers.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41834/indias-indigenous-aircraft-carrier-has-gone-to-sea-for-the-first-time

‘The unmanned helicopters could be used to surveil areas around the numerous small islands of the highly contested Pacific, for example, using their LIDAR systems to scout for undersea sensors, small unmanned underwater vehicles, or naval mines. In a special operations application, they could provide very up-to-date intelligence on the littorals around target areas prior to swimmer insertions. The same could be said for preparing and scouting for larger amphibious operations.’
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41902/small-unmanned-helicopters-used-lasers-to-map-littorals-in-recent-u-s-navy-tests

This clip shows how ergonomics affect a tank’s performance. The Soviet T-62’s cramped interior and poor arrangement of its ammunition slows the human from loading the main gun. Western tanks are larger and more spacious inside, allowing crewmen to load the main guns quickly and safely. Simple metrics like the size of the main gun, armor thickness, and speed don’t even tell half the story of how good a tank is. Lame-sounding things like crew ergonomics, aiming devices, and communications technology are very important.
https://youtu.be/a__ks1GgJRU?t=1504

The first handheld Gauss rifle has been unveiled, and it looks horrible. For $3,775, you get an extremely heavy, long weapon that is only as powerful as a .22 plinker rifle.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41872/preorders-for-this-electromagnetic-rifle-are-being-taken-for-3775

This guy built the bow and arrow version of the Smartgun from “Aliens.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MkrNVic7pw

Algeria has finally stopped using leaded gasoline, meaning the substance is now banned worldwide. Leaded gas lowers human IQ and makes people more violent.
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/30/1031429212/the-world-has-finally-stopped-using-leaded-gasoline-algeria-used-the-last-stockp

The concept of using supercomputer models to predict the future is sound, though this particular attempt to pull it off is likely to fail (like at least one previous Pentagon attempt). There will come a day when mass surveillance and personality modeling of every human give rise to a real-time, 1:1 computer simulation of the planet. At that point, it will be possible to extrapolate into the future some unknown amount of time to predict events. The 1:1 model would also let its owners understand how their own actions would affect the population, the economy, and other human systems. Large government agencies (including militaries) and big corporations will start using the simulation results to take surreptitious actions carefully designed to further their own goals. To the rest of us, the events would look disconnected and even unimportant, but they would actually be part of an intricate plan to sway the public’s (or some segment of it) thinking.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41771/the-pentagon-is-experimenting-with-using-artificial-intelligence-to-see-days-in-advance

Elon Musk announced Tesla would unveil a prototype humanoid robot sometime in 2022. Keep in mind that it’s one thing to build a single, million-dollar prototype that can only be shown at demo events, and another to be mass-producing useful robots that people other than the super-rich can afford. I predict robots will be common in the households of upper-income Americans by the end of the 2030s, and they will be able to do hours of useful work per day.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-bot-robot-price-specs-2022/

‘Despite their name, materials known as supersolids are not super rigid. Instead, they combine the ordered structure of a solid with the properties of a superfluid — a substance that flows without friction. To picture a supersolid, consider an ice cube immersed in liquid water, with frictionless flow of the water through the cube.’
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02191-5

As Earth’s days have grown longer, so has the oxygen content of its atmosphere. The link could be explained by photosynthetic bacteria, which can produce more oxygen when the days are longer.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/totally-new-idea-suggests-longer-days-early-earth-set-stage-complex-life

Progress is being made in the field of achiral DNA synthesis. In labs, we can painstakingly manufacture nucleic acids and proteins that are “mirror images” of naturally occurring versions of those same molecules. Since other organisms lack the enzymes to digest them, achiral biomolecules are extremely stable, meaning they might be optimal for DNA data storage.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/08/02/the-mirror-world

India has approved the world’s first “DNA vaccine,” which is meant to fight COVID-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57774294

A man’s age has less of an effect on the genetic quality of his sperm than previously thought. Additionally, it’s somewhat common for genetically healthy males to produce sperm with genetic defects, meaning it’s more important to sequence the DNA of a sperm donor’s sperm than it is to sequence the DNA from any other part of his body.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-human-sperm-mutations-disease-children.html

These LED face masks are the predecessors of much more advanced personal cloaking outfits we will have in 30 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2yTo6r92zw

Thanks to a stubborn minority of Americans refusing to get vaccinated, the U.S. COVID-19 death toll is now predicted to reach 700,000 by mid-October. Had the vaccination rate not dropped a few months ago, that milestone wouldn’t have been reached until well into 2022.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-deaths-100k-more-predicted-united-states/

Review: “Renaissance”

Plot:

In the year 2054, a powerful French biotech company called “Avalon” is a global leader in anti-aging technology. After one of its best scientists, a young woman named “Ilona,” (ill-LOAN-uh) is kidnapped in Paris for no clear reason and without her anonymous captors issuing any demands, it is up to a police detective named “Karas” (CARE-us) to find her.

During Karas’ investigation, he crosses paths with Ilona’s beautiful sister, with the psychopathic CEO of Avalon, with Ilona’s shadowy scientist mentor, and with several other unsavory characters who all have some small piece of the puzzle. All the while, a mysterious group of assassins follows and spies on his investigation and constantly undermines it by killing witnesses, destroying key pieces of evidence, and even trying to kill him.

Midway through the film, Karas discovers that Ilona might have been abducted because she found a gene therapy technique that stops the aging process, and which would be worth a fortune to her Avalon bosses. I’ll pique your interest with that much exposition, but won’t spoil the plot twists or the ending because Renaissance is a cool movie that you should see for yourself. This is exactly the sort of mid-budget film that we desperately need more of to break the stranglehold that tentpole franchise explosion films have on the box office, but I’m now off topic…

Renaissance takes place in a futuristic yet gritty and recognizable Paris where advanced technology and wealth coexist with poverty and crime. The movie is animated and in black-and-white, clearly reflecting the director’s aspiration to the film noir genre. It’s dark, moody, suspenseful, and most of the scenes happen at night, which is a vision of the future we probably have Blade Runner to thank for. The characters are mostly well-acted.

Paris in 2054 can be a grim place

One complaint I have about the movie is that the last third of it has several plot twists where the actors behave in uncharacteristic or irrational ways, or where unbelievable events happen. Examples include Karas magically uncuffing himself from a railing when he doesn’t have the key, no police showing up after a man is shot by someone in a low-hovering helicopter in the middle of the city, and a team of thugs in invisibility cloaks beating up and then abducting a man in broad daylight, in the middle of a crowd, right next to the Eiffel Tower.

A bigger gripe I have with the film is with the notion that medical immortality is wrong or will automatically lead to a horrible world, and that, in the words of one of the characters “Without death, life is meaningless.” That kind of argumentation has always been nothing more than people trying to rationalize something that is unpleasant but inevitable. Death is horrible, life is great, and death renders life meaningless once death happens and a little bit of time passes. If given the opportunity, we should try to end death and worry about the consequences (e.g. – overpopulation) later.

Moreover, if we accept the premise that technologies that extend life are wrong, or that they give biotech companies too much power, then it’s a slippery slope to using the exact same argument to ban medical treatments that extend peoples’ lives today beyond their “natural limits.” Blood and organ transfusions aren’t natural, and extend the lives of people who, in a natural human state, would have died. Vaccines that keep people from dying of diseases like COVID-19 aren’t natural.

Relatedly, I reject the film’s notion that having the formula for eternal life in the hands of a for-profit biotech company like Avalon would “give them too much power” or make the world worse off. To sell the life extension pills, Avalon would have to first patent them, which would mean making public their chemical formula along with lab studies detailing what they do at the cellular level. After 20 years, the patent would expire, and any other biotech company that wanted to manufacture and sell generic pills would be able to, simply by copying the aforementioned information Avalon had made public. True, for the first 20 years, Avalon’s monopoly would allow it to price-gouge, “play God,” and make enormous profits, but after that, competition from other drug companies would drive the prices low enough for anyone to afford it. It would be a small price to pay in the long run. (Without the guarantee of the 20 year sales monopoly, pharmaceutical companies would have no incentives to invest money into developing new medicines off all kinds, which would cause that area of medical science to stall, causing enormous human suffering.)

But in reality, if something as valuable as an eternal life pill existed, governments might ignore patent laws and make copies of the pills for mass distribution to their own citizens. Companies like Avalon can file lawsuits through international venues for intellectual property infringement, but in the end, there’s only so much they can do to punish sovereign countries, especially bigger ones. Case in point is the Indian government’s collusion with indigenous drug companies to make cheap copies of patented American and European drugs.

Analysis:

Holographic ID card. Only the left edge of the card has physical substance. The rest is a projection.

People will use holographic ID cards instead of ID cards that are just made of paper. In the film, there are small, L-shaped devices that can generate holographic images that float in three-dimensional space. Presumably, the devices do this thanks to tiny light emitters. These have replaced old-fashioned paper photo ID cards and business cards. This technology will not be used in 2054 because 1) the hologram has no advantage over laminated paper for this type of simple object and 2) it’s simply impossible to make holographic, 3D images that “float” in the air like that. Quoting some well-phrased technical text I found on this subject:

A hologram cannot, when viewed from any angle, protrude from the surface, as seen from an angle, further than the edge of the hologram, meaning that it can only be about as tall as it is wide. If this seems a little confusing, Michael Bove put it this way: “Any reconstructed object has to lie along a line that goes from your eye to somewhere on the physical display device.”‘

A holographic tablet computer. Note the “L” shaped part of the device the user’s hand is gripping.

People will use holographic computer tablets instead of normal tablets. In the movie, larger versions of the aforementioned L-shaped devices are also used to make holographic computer tablets. As before, science simply does not allow the existence of this technology. However, by 2054, rectangular tablet computers will be capable of projecting high-def holographic images out at the viewer’s face. In other words, you could watch 3D movies on your tablet without having to wear 3D glasses. However, if you slowly tilted the tablet away from you, the illusion of depth would become clear to your eye as the images no longer popped out of the screen at your face.

The problem with transparent computer monitors is illustrated here. The secretary is looking at the detective’s personal file as he approaches her desk. He knows this because he can see the image from his vantage.

Transparent computer monitors will be in use. The technology will surely be available by 2054, but no one will use it because 1) transparent screens undermine your own privacy by letting everyone else see what you’re looking at and because 2) they’re harder for you to read off of than opaque screens with solid-colored backgrounds. Certainly, desktop computer monitors will be even thinner than they are today and might need smaller base plates thanks to their lighter weight, but that’s not going to translate into much of a practical gain. As the average screen creeps up in size, they’ll get more wobbly and cumbersome even as they get thinner, which will preserve the need for sturdy baseplates.

Cloaked outfits will exist. Several Avalon corporation henchmen are featured in the film, doing the CEO’s dirty work by tailing Karas, secretly surveilling and undermining his investigation, and killing off key people who knew Ilona. They seem to have better technology than the police, including hooded outfits that can turn transparent and cloak them from the naked eye. Cloaking outfits will exist by 2054, and could be in widespread use among people who need to be camouflaged, like paramilitaries, spies and assassins.

One of the film’s corporate thugs wearing an invisibility cloak.

A cloaked outfit could be made out of a flexible fabric studded with millions of color e-ink pixels covering its whole surface (just imagine if your big screen TV were paper-thin and flexible, and you could cut it into smaller pieces and then sew them together to make a T-shirt), and interspersed with a smaller number of pinhole-sized cameras. The cameras would constantly watch the changing colors and visual patterns to one side of your body, and tell the e-ink dots on the exact opposite side of your body to change colors to match it, so anyone looking at you would “see through” you. If you stood with your back to a red brick wall ten feet behind you, the front of your shirt and pants would turn red and would display rectangles. However, the cloaked outfit wouldn’t be able to disguise you from every possible viewing angle, so to people at ground level looking straight at your front, you might be hidden, but to someone in a tree looking down at you at an angle, you’d pop out as a red human silhouette with 10 feet of green grass separating you from the red brick wall behind you. As such, the 360 degree cloaking technology depicted in Renaissance is probably impossible, and if you were wearing a cloaked outfit from 2054, you’d still have to be very mindful of your surroundings and careful about your movements to stay unseen.

Hunters wear camouflage outfits that are designed to exactly match the environments where they plan to hunt. This man’s clothing doesn’t make him “transparent” like a sci-fi cloaking device would, but he might as well be.

Assassins, soldiers, and hunters wearing cloaked outfits would still find that the normal rules about using darkness and obstacles as cover, staying as far as practical from other people or animals, keeping low to the ground, and avoiding places where the landscape sharply changed in appearance (like where a red brick wall meets a green lawn) still applied. On the subject of camouflage, let me add that I think outfits that took snapshots of their surroundings once every few minutes and changed the outfit’s appearance to one of 10 – 20 pre-loaded camo patterns that most closely matched those surroundings (ex – Desert Pattern 1, Desert Pattern 2, Jungle Pattern, Snow Pattern) will be almost as effective as the continuously-updating cloaking outfits in Renaissance, and at lower cost and much less energy consumption.

The cloaking outfits of 2054 will be able to frequently and automatically change their colors and patterns to match their surroundings.

The technology will also find its way into civilian fashion, and by the 2050s, it will be common to encounter people whose outfits display morphing patterns and colors. They could even display lifelike moving images, allowing wearers to become “walking TVs.” People who set their shirts and pants to “camouflage mode” while standing or sitting next to walls would also look like disembodied heads, hands and shoes to passersby. The cloaking outfits will open many weird possibilities.

Also, the same level of technology that will enable the creation of cloaking outfits will also allow the creation of cloaking detectors: If you were worried about a cloaked assassin sneaking up on you, you could wear augmented reality glasses with tiny cameras and sensors that continuously scanned your surroundings for the characteristic visual distortions of a cloaked person, or for other clues (e.g. – sounds of footsteps, possibly body heat).

Visual cloaking technology could also be applied to military and police vehicles and aircraft, and might in fact be used in that role years before they are incorporated into clothing.

Cars will look normal but make electric humming noises. There are a few street scenes in the film where cars are shown, and the depiction seemed accurate. By 2054, batteries will be much better than they are today, meaning higher energy density, lower costs, faster recharge times, and slower wear-out rates. It will be a mature technology that average people won’t consider “weird” or “special.” Instead, it will be the norm (“electric cars” will just be called “cars”), and the vast majority of passenger vehicles (and possibly commercial vehicles) in 2054 will use batteries instead of fossil fuels.

Whatever niche advantages that internal combustion engines still hold in 2054 will be so minimal that it will only be worth buying them in very special cases. This will significantly improve air quality, ease global warming, and reduce noise pollution since electric car motors are almost silent. The quality of life improvements will be felt most by people living in cities (imagine a smog-free L.A. or Beijing) and near highways.

Cars like the defunct “Google Car” will be common in 2054.

Externally, most cars in 2054 will be about the same size and shape as today’s cars since they will still be built to carry human passengers in comfort, safety and style. However, in urban areas, where traffic moves slowly, non-traditional-looking subcompact vehicles designed for no-frills transport of humans or light cargo will be common sights.

By 2054, car ownership rates will be lower than today, and many people will find it cheaper and no less convenient to use self-driving cabs for transportation. Since most car rides are single-person trips to or from work or the local store, it would be more efficient if the self-driving vehicle fleet consisted of more subcompact cars. Laws requiring features like crumple zones and rollbars will be waived for autonomous vehicles meant to transport cargo only, allowing them to be smaller, cheaper, and lighter.

People will still drive their own cars. All the cars that we get close looks at in the film have steering wheels, and in the big chase scene where Karas goes after a suspect, there’s a lot of classic gear-shifting, grimacing, and stiff turning of steering wheels to ram other cars or careen off-road. This is somewhat accurate for 2054.

Self-driving cars will be old technology by then, and most of the vehicle fleet–particularly in developed countries like France–will consist of self-driving vehicles. It will be rarer for adults to have drivers licenses than it is today due to a lack of any need for one. However, I think many humans will still choose to drive their own cars, mostly for pleasure (for this same reason, some people today like riding motorcycles or stick-shift sports cars when a basic, automatic transmission sedan will transport them just as well), but in some cases due to bona fide occupational or lifestyle needs. However, even human-driven cars will still make heavy use of AI for the sake of safety, and the cars might override human attempts to drive recklessly.

But it might be possible to turn the AI off, in which case you could speed down the highway, ram people, and drive the wrong way. And thanks to that possibility, the police will have a professional need to have drivers licenses and to be able to have full control over their patrol cars so they could also break traffic laws for pursuits. And so…yes, even in 2054, high-speed car chases like that shown in the film will still be happening.  

Wall-sized computer monitors will exist. In the police headquarters, there’s a “command center” room whose walls are covered with giant computer monitors. The central area of the room also has several personal computer terminals, whose monitors can be shared with the main wall monitors. Karas and his colleagues use the room to go through mugshots of potential suspects and to watch surveillance videos together. Wall-sized computer/TV monitors will be old technology by 2054. In fact, TV screens that take up entire walls of houses and offices should become common by the end of the 2030s. The screens will probably be thin, flexible, and installed as if they were wallpaper.

Wall-sized display at the police HQ

By 2054, the screens will probably be capable of displaying ultra high-res holographic images that seem to pop out at the viewer. Many of the characters in Renaissance were in their 20s, meaning they were born too late to have known what the world was like when TVs and computer monitors were discrete, relatively small objects, and not every seemingly inanimate wall could suddenly come to life with moving pictures and interact with you. This is just one example of how technology will become increasingly invisible yet omnipresent as time passes–ever-more integrated into our surroundings and bodies.

People will have enhanced eyes with HUDs and the ability to see through solid objects. Karas has technologically enhanced vision that lets him see simple shapes and alphanumeric characters overlaying things in his field of view (ex – people have circles around them), and that lets him see ghosted silhouettes of people who are fully or partly obscured by solid objects, such as an armed bad guy hiding behind a tree trunk. His eyes look normal, so the abilities must be thanks to contact lenses or devices implanted inside his eyeballs. These enhanced vision capabilities will exist in 2054. Several different technologies are being represented here, so let me parse them out.

Karas’ augmented vision, presumably thanks to contact lenses

First, Karas must have cameras on his person that are continuously scanning his environment, and which are able to quickly recognize what they see. Circles are displayed around people because the image recognition algorithms in Karas’ personal devices know what humans look like. As Facebook’s face detection algorithm demonstrates every time you upload photos of people, computers are already excellent at recognizing distinctively human features in photographs. Getting them to make those identifications in camera video feeds is simply a matter of increasing the processing speed of the same algorithms. After all, a video feed is nothing more than many still photos presented in quick succession. I have no doubt that portable personal computing devices will be able to do this by 2054.

Second, Karas’ augmented vision device allows him to “see through” solid objects, mainly to spot bad guys he’s trying to shoot. Such obstructing objects include a large concrete sculpture and a thick tree trunk. Your first guess about how he is able to do this is probably “heat vision,” and it is also wrong. Thermal vision cameras can’t actually see through solid objects. Being able to see non-visible portions of the light spectrum like infrared and ultraviolent is also unhelpful since they can’t pass through large solid objects, either. Radio waves would pass through the object and the person, so you wouldn’t get useful information about what was on the other side.

I think what’s really going on is Karas is not actually seeing through solid objects: his visioning device is using camera footage of his surroundings to rapidly build a 3D model of the room–including the places where people are standing–and then superimposing virtual images of human silhouettes over solid objects to give him an idea of where people are hiding as they become obscured by those objects. Whenever he has a clear line of sight to someone, Karas’ devices note their location in 3D space, and continue displaying their last known location as a silhouette even if they become hidden from view by a large object. In cases where people’s bodies are only partly concealed by objects, Karas’ device builds a partial silhouette of the hidden part of their body based on their posture, biomechanics, and the bilateral symmetry of the human body. This capability would require similar visual pattern recognition technology as the HUD, and portable, personal computing devices will be able to support it by 2054.

It’s also possible that Karas’ visioning device makes use of reflected light to “see” people who are hiding behind objects. Several groups of researchers have experimented with different variations of this nascent technique, but they all involve using one or two light emitters to send pulses of light towards a freestanding object, and then carefully analyzing the subsequent patterns of light reflections to piece together what the obscured backside of the object looks like. The pulses of light are invisible to the naked eye. Devices that do this could be man-portable by 2054, though I doubt they will be so small that they could be incorporated into contact lenses or eye implants. Something the size of a gun scope is more realistic.

Third, Karas is able to have his enhanced vision without wearing bulky goggles or even thin-framed glasses. The virtual images thus appear in his field of view either thanks to augmented reality contact lenses or eye implants. While computers and cameras will be much faster, smaller, and better in 2054, I doubt something as small as a contact lens or eye implant could do all of this computation. Powering the devices would also be a major problem, even if they had integral batteries that were 10x as energy-dense as today’s. Heat dissipation would also be a problem, as the waste heat generated by the battery and processor could literally burn your eyes out.

With these impracticalities in mind, I think Karas must have some other, larger computing device on his person–perhaps just a smartphone in his pocket–that does all the data processing and contains a power source for all his worn devices. Data and electricity would be shared through a local area network (LAN): The smartphone would receive wireless video feeds and other data from tiny cameras and sensors Karas had embedded in his clothing or maybe in his eye device, the smartphone would then do the image analyses described in this section, and then it would beam data signals and electricity to Karas’ eye devices, telling them what virtual images to overlay over his field of vision. This way, the eye devices wouldn’t get hot and wouldn’t need integral batteries of their own. A real-world 2054 scenario might also involve Karas wearing more substantial sensor devices, like something attached to his pistol or integrated into some type of headwear, to collect the scanning data.

Finally, let me point out that augmented reality glasses could do all of this without a LAN, and glasses will be old tech by 2054. The Avalon corporate thugs wore goggles that also gave them augmented vision, including telescopic zoom ability. They also had sensitive, directional microphones somewhere on their kit, which, along with the goggle zoom, allowed them to spy on Karas from long distances.

Holodecks will exist. After being abducted, Ilona is imprisoned inside a medium-sized room that is similar to a holodeck from Star Trek. From a different room, her mysterious captors can use a desktop computer to change the appearance of the room to simulate different environments. When the “forest” environment is selected, the room’s bare white walls, floor and ceiling change in appearance accordingly: virtual grass and trees sprout from the ground, and in the distance, there only appears to be more vegetation.

A bare room transforming into a forest through some holodeck technology. The vegetation is still “forming.”

While the holodeck’s operating principles are never explained, I think it is based on the same 3D hologram technology that has replaced paper cards and rectangular tablet computers in the film. And as I said before, 3D holograms that float in fixed points in space are impossible. However, a similar effect could probably be achieved by covering the walls, floor and ceiling with the paper-thin displays that could show holographic moving pictures that seemed to pop out at the viewer. Tiny cameras could track the gaze and posture of the person inside the holodeck, and continuously adjust the pictures being displayed on the room’s giant displays to compensate for changes to their visual perspective resulting from their movement. However, even if you could get this to work, the holodeck user experience would be severely limited since you wouldn’t be able to walk far before your face hit a wall, which would ruin the illusion (at one point, Ilona runs around her holodeck prison in frustration but implausibly, doesn’t hit anything).

The whole floor could be an omnidirectional treadmill whose surface was made of a flexible holographic display, but even in 2054, that setup is going to be very expensive. In 2054, for full-immersion virtual reality experiences, it’s going to be much cheaper and better to use VR glasses, earpieces, and maybe a tactile body suit, and at the rate things are going, I’m sure all of those will be mature technologies by then. 

To summarize: By 2054, it will be possible to make virtual reality holodeck rooms where you could experience some environment like a forest, but it won’t look as good as what was in Renaissance, actually exploring the environment by walking around will be problematic, and there will be very few holodecks because there will be better ways to access virtual reality.

Cell phone implants will be in use. Karas wears a nickel-sized device behind his right ear that is embossed with the “Motorola” symbol and serves as a cell phone by transmitting telephonic sounds to him. Whenever someone calls him on the phone, he hears their voice in his head.

The device is worn in the same place as real-life bone-anchored hearing devices for people with hearing problems, so it probably works via the same principle of conducting sound waves through the skull into the inner ear. There might even be a direct wire link to the auditory nerve. Karas removes it by simply pulling it off with his fingers, which makes me think the device has two parts: one has been permanently installed in his body via skull surgery, and the other is the removeable circular piece, which probably contains the power source, microphone, and maybe computer processors. The detachable piece could be held on by magnets or an advanced adhesive, though keeping it from being accidentally knocked off by your shirt or jacket collar rubbing against it could be a very hard engineering problem.

While this technology is feasible for 2054, the fact that it requires a hole to be drilled into your skull will hold back its widescale adoption until we have developed very advanced surgical methods that are also very cheap. Don’t expect that until long after 2054. However, it’s conceivable that implants might be better than worn devices like Bluetooths and hearing aids–especially if they directly interface with human auditory nerves–and as such could come into common use among police officers, soldiers, spies, and other elite people whose professions directly benefit from having heightened senses. Small numbers of those people might have implants.

In 2054, it’s much more likely that people who want to do hands-free phone calls will buy removable earpieces, like today’s Bluetooth Headsets.

People will do video calls all the time. Karas’ hearing and vision devices let him do several video calls with his boss and colleagues. He hears their words through his hearing device, and sees their faces in front of him as ghosted HUD footage thanks to his eye devices. (Presumably, the people on the other end have webcams pointed at their faces.) So, while Karas is walking down the street running errands, he’s also seeing his boss’ semi-transparent head floating in front of him and hearing her voice in his head. To other people on the street, he seems to be talking to himself when he’s actually talking to her. (Telling schizophrenics apart from normal people will be that much harder in the future.)

The technology of 2054 will make this scenario possible, though I doubt people will use it much since there’s usually nothing to be gained from seeing the other person’s face. In fact, it often makes interactions less pleasant and more unwieldy, especially when you’re conversing with your naggy boss or an emotional colleague. Many people also want to stay unseen due to insecurities about their looks.

People have already shown a preference for minimalism in digital communication with texting increasingly replacing audio phone calls. There’s no reason to assume this trend will flip in the future and people will want to do video calls for every small thing.

A cure for aging will have been found. A crucial plot twist happens when Karas discovers Ilona had made a breakthrough in her anti-aging research right before she was kidnapped. The full details are never revealed, but it is said to be some kind of gene therapy that halts the aging process in humans. Such a thing would radically extend human lifespan, though it wouldn’t make humans truly “immortal” since we would still die from causes other than aging, like infectious diseases, accidents, murders, and suicides. I doubt such a cure will be found that soon, but lifespans will still be significantly longer in 2054 than today, and part of the gain will probably owe to drugs that slow, but don’t stop, the aging process. Some lifespan gains will also come from technologies allowing the replacement of worn-out organs.

From what little we know about the aging process and its complexity, it is already obvious that there will never be a simple, one-shot cure for it. Instead, a combination of many different technologies (in situ stem cell therapies, organ cloning, synthetic organ implantation, maybe brain transplants into newer bodies) will extend life and then, in the very long run, defeat aging and death. I don’t expect that until well into the 22nd century.

There will be transparent floors. In Renaissance Paris, many of the city’s highways have glass enclosures built around them, effectively turning them into tunnels. Pedestrians can walk over the flat roofs of those tunnels and see the cars below. Some underground Metro stations also have glass ceilings that function as glass floors for people walking above, at street level.

It’s an interesting infrastructure idea actually has merits beyond just being aesthetically pleasing. Enclosing the roads like that improves safety for both drivers and pedestrians since there’s far less risk of someone walking into the roadway. The highway is also no longer a barrier to human movement, which improves the walkability and potential uses of the topside space. The glass enclosures also contain the road noises and any air pollution the vehicles might be making (the tunnel air could be run through filters). The fact that the glass lets in natural sunlight to recessed highways and Metro stations that would otherwise be artificially lit is also of psychological benefit to users of both.

The only problem with this idea is that it would give perverts easy views up ladies’ skirts. Of course, that could be fixed by slightly frosting over the glass or by incorporating distorting undulations into the material, as is commonly done with glass building blocks today.

It’s very possible that we could have discovered some transparent material that exceeds glass’ strength and cost performance to such an extent that it is economical to use as a building material as it was in the film. It would be a desirable feature in stylish cities like Paris.

Links:

  1. Today’s LED masks are much cruder versions of cloaked outfits that will exist someday.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2yTo6r92zw

Interesting articles, July 2021

As the U.S. withdraws it troops from Afghanistan after almost 20 years, the Taliban are rapidly taking over the country. Photos and videos show Taliban troops capturing large numbers of U.S.-made fighting vehicles, and Afghan government forces surrendering.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disaster-at-hand-documenting-afghan.html

More on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/troops-flee-taliban-take-districts-northeast-afghanistan-n1273062
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57818221

Ethiopia’s army suffered a stunning defeat in the rebellious Tigray province. Thousands of their troops were captured and marched in front of cameras.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/world/africa/tigray-ethiopia-soldiers-captured.html

Here’s an interesting glimpse into a Syrian Army tank repair shop. Their mechanics made the best use of what they had during the civil war.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/08/a-look-inside-damascus-armour-repair.html

In 2020, the small U.S. aircraft carrier Bonhomme Richard suffered a fire that caused so much damage the ship was sent to the scrapyard. The Navy now says that one of its sailors deliberately lit the fire.
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/29/1022514854/sailor-charged-arson-uss-bonhomme-richard-navy-san-diego

British and Chinese aircraft carriers are both conducting missions in the South China Sea.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41752/british-and-chinese-aircraft-carriers-both-underway-in-the-tense-south-china-sea

China is making impressive progress building its third aircraft carrier, which will be significantly larger and more advanced than its other two.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/progress-report-chinas-type-003-carrier

A fast way to stop a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan might be for U.S. bombers to drop naval mines in the water.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/stop-chinese-invasion-b-52s-could-drop-mines-taiwan-strait-189127

The American submarine USS Thresher accidentally sank off the East Coast in 1963. For decades, the Navy claimed the sinking drowned the 129-man crew immediately. However, recently declassified reports suggest that some of them survived for as long as 30 hours. Being trapped in an air pocket inside a sunken vessel and slowly suffocating is one of the worst ways to die I know of.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41523/uss-threshers-crew-may-have-survived-many-hours-after-its-disappearance-according-to-new-docs

From 1984: ‘A senior Marine general [Lt. Gen. Bernard E. Trainor] said today that a limited war with the Soviet Union in this generation is an “almost inevitable probability” and that the United States should be prepared to prevail in such a conflict…”Given what’s happening with Soviet power projection, we probably at some point in our lifetime will clash.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/06/22/limited-soviet-war-held-almost-inevitable/14709f97-3573-45e1-9fd6-432cfb06898e/

British children of 1966 sure were well-spoken, thoughtful, and mature compared to modern American children. This video should definitely give us pause about how we have regressed thanks to deficiencies in our culture and public education. At the same time, the parallels between their bad assumptions and ours today must be acknowledged. Their predictions of global catastrophe and/or being forced into totally different ways of life by the year 2000 were completely wrong. Likewise, the predictions that modern children would make about global warming doomsday, nuclear war, or robots taking over by, say, 2050, will also end up being wrong.
https://youtu.be/cwHib5wYEj8

A massive forest fire in southern Oregon was less damaging to areas where humans had recently allowed smaller, managed fires to burn. Refusing to accept that wild fires are part of nature’s cycle of birth, death, and renewal has led to terrible policy of suppressing most fires, inevitably leading to a huge buildup of dead and dry wood in forests, which in turn leads to mega-fires that can’t be controlled.
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/20/1018522825/bootleg-wildfire-forest-management

‘Overall, our results imply that ridesharing has decreased US alcohol-related traffic fatalities by 6.1% and reduced total US traffic fatalities by 4.0%.’
https://www.nber.org/papers/w29071

The founder of the electric truck startup named “Nikola” has been indicted for fraud. The truck technology was a scam.
https://social.techcrunch.com/2021/07/29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-indicted-on-three-counts-of-fraud/

Mark Zuckerberg believes that virtual reality and augmented reality headsets now used for gaming will, by 2030, be commonly used for work purposes, allowing for vastly better teleworking. He calls this world of virtual reality meetings, virtual workstations, and hybrid reality the “metaverse.” The concept is little different from what Ray Kurzweil foresaw over 20 years ago.
https://www.theverge.com/22588022/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-ceo-metaverse-interview

A new type of app lets players of first-person-shooter video games cheat, and is undetectable. The app watches the footage being displayed on the user’s computer screen, uses pattern recognition to identify enemy players in split seconds, and re-centers the player’s weapon crosshair over those enemies. As a result, the cheating player has perfect aim, and merely needs to push the “fire” button on his controller to always kill an enemy. Variations of this technology could be used to make the ultimate ad-blockers.
https://youtu.be/revk5r5vqxA

Fully convincing computer voice synthesis is coming soon. Famous people will be able to sell the rights to their distinctive voice prints, and small-scale human voice actors could lose their jobs.
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2021-07-26/la-et-anthony-bourdain-deepfake-ai-voice-documentary-audio-cgi

AI company Deep Mind used an advanced program called “AlphaFold” to predict the structures of 350,000 proteins, including all of the roughly 20,000 proteins found in the human body. It will take a lot of time to verify all of their predictions, but so far, they have been very accurate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57929095

A chemist who has spent much of his career developing new drugs offers this analysis of how impactful AlphaFold will be to his field.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/07/23/more-protein-folding-progress-whats-it-mean

More genes that code for human obesity have been found.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6550/30

The first human conceived through “preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic disorders” (PGT-P) has been born. This is one step down from genetic engineering.
https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/

A physically paralyzed and mute man can now communicate thanks to a brain implant that turns his thoughts into computer text. There’s an embedded video showing the man synthesizing sentences in real time. Brain implants that can decode a person’s thoughts will someday let people communicate telepathically, and to use their minds to directly control machines.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/14/1016028911/experimental-brain-implant-lets-man-with-paralysis-turn-his-thoughts-into-words

By genetically engineering plants to have an enzyme that de-methylates RNA molecules in humans, geneticists were able to increase crop yields by 50%.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/07/28/one-lost-methyl-group-huge-amounts-of-food-production

Once lab techniques are perfected, we will be able to cheaply produce any kind of meat, including meats mimicking exotic animals like ‘ostrich, snake, wombat, penguin, and any threatened species currently protected from slaughter.’ We could even synthesize human flesh for consumption.
https://futuristspeaker.com/future-of-agriculture/industrial-meat-growing-facilities-coming-to-a-city-near-you/

Billionaires Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos went into space in private spacecraft they had separately developed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57797297
https://apnews.com/article/jeff-bezos-space-e0afeaa813ff0bdf23c37fe16fd34265

While many cynics pointed out that Branson and Bezos only went into space for a few minutes apiece, they won’t be able to laugh at Elon Musk’s upcoming private space mission. Perhaps before the end of this year, Musk will send four people into space on one of his SpaceX rockets. They will orbit the Earth dozens of times over four days.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/03/1017255/space-tourism-finally-here-sort-of-spacex-inspiration4/

This is what a Space-X Falcon 9 rocket looks like after making eight trips into space.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/after-eight-flights-to-space-in-a-year-heres-what-a-falcon-9-looks-like/

During the height of the Space Race, CIA spies secretly examined and photographed a Soviet satellite that was being used as a museum exhibit. Remarkably, the Soviets decided not to make a hollowed-out mockup for this purpose–it was a real satellite containing all the actual components and some of their best technology.
https://www.popsci.com/cias-bold-kidnapping-soviet-spacecraft/

Using a technique called “star lifting,” we could slowly siphon off the Sun’s outer layers of hydrogen, which might shrink it enough to prevent it from turning into a red giant that is projected to expand and fry Earth in 5 billion years.
https://www.gregschool.org/gregschoollessons/2018/5/23/star-lifting-colonizing-the-stars-and-the-galaxies

‘[The WHO head] said there had been a “premature push” to rule out the theory that the virus might have escaped from a Chinese government lab in Wuhan — undermining WHO’s own March report, which concluded that a laboratory leak was “extremely unlikely.”‘
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/15/1016436749/who-chief-wuhan-lab-covid-19-origin-premature-tedros

But it is also premature at this point to conclude COVID-19 definitely had human origins. Other evidence suggests it could have come from nature. The jury is still out.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/19/1016005828/new-data-leads-to-rethinking-once-more-where-the-pandemic-actually-began

The Chinese virology lab from which COVID-19 may have leaked had received some money from the U.S. government to support its research. The U.S. may have inadvertently funded “gain of function” experiments in China that produced COVID-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/57932699

Worries about side effects caused by the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine are overblown, and the net benefits of getting it (or any other FDA-approved vaccine) still massively outweigh the risks.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/07/13/more-on-vaccine-side-effects

The prediction from 13 months ago was right. In the second quarter of 2021, the number of Americans who had received at least one COVID shot hit 100 million. Shortly after, the number that had gotten at least two shots also hit 100 million.

“The first doses [of the COVID-19 vaccine] will need to go to the people who are at highest risk…particularly health care providers, people in long-term care facilities…But the goal would be certainly to start scaling this up as soon as you have a vaccine that’s safe and effective, so that by 2021, maybe even in the first or second quarter, we would have 100 million doses or so, so it wouldn’t have to be rationed so severely. But at first, there won’t be enough for everybody.”
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/04/868833292/nih-director-hopes-for-at-least-1-safe-and-effective-vaccine-by-years-end

“Amusing Ourselves to Death” summary

I thought I’d take a break from killer robots and Ray Kurzweil to write a summary of a book I recently read, interspersed with my own thoughts (which are in square brackets). Though at first glace, the book Amusing Ourselves to Death might seem out of place in this blog, it focuses on technology (specifically, television) and its effect on 1980s culture.

My interest in this book was piqued about two years ago when I started hearing it mentioned for its alleged prescience predicting the rise of today’s frenetic social media culture and “cancel culture.” After reading it, it’s clear that many of the defects of 1980s TV culture have carried over to 2020s internet culture, and in that sense, it is prescient. However, the book is in equal measure a time capsule that documents a defunct era, and as such, it serves as useful contrast against the way things are in the present era, and helped me to see how the shift in the dominant technological medium (TV to computer/internet) has changed American culture and behavior.

Doing this led to me to make unhappy realizations, which I invite you to read in the square brackets rather than in a summary here, as this isn’t that long of a blog post.

Chapter 1 – The Medium is the Metaphor

American culture is now focused on amusement. Politics, religion, and social discourse are presented to Americans as entertainment products.

Some proof of this is evident if one considers that the U.S. President at the time of the book’s publication, Ronald Reagan, was a former movie actor. Other presidential candidates were also former TV personalities.

To win a U.S. Presidential election, a candidate must be telegenic. This attribute is just as important as others that are much more critical for the position, like intelligence.

Through studying their audiences, news media companies discovered that viewers would watch news programs more regularly and for longer periods if the newscasters were telegenic. This is why newscasters are now almost universally good-looking and well-spoken.

There are different mediums of communication, and each medium has unique characteristics that determine which types of content it can convey. Each has strengths, weaknesses, and limits:

  • Smoke signals can’t convey complex ideas, so it is impossible to use this medium to discuss philosophy.
  • Television (TV) is a visual medium, so it conveys ideas and stories principally through images and not through words. Things that look unappealing evoke negative reactions from viewers. As a result, an obese man like William Taft couldn’t become President in today’s era of political commercials and televised debates, even if he were in fact the best-suited candidate for the position. [Donald Trump won the 2016 election in spite of being obese and physically ugly in other ways. However, his prowess as a showman overcame those deficits, at least among a sufficient number of American voters to secure him a narrow victory.]

This book’s core thesis is that TV is fundamentally unsuited as a medium for the complex discussion of ideas.

The telegraph brought the “news of the day” into existence: Instant communication allowed everyone to be aware of events everywhere else on the planet, which might sound like a good thing, but hasn’t been because of how the new information has been used. Most of the information presented in the “news of the day” is irrelevant to any particular consumer because it has no impact on him and/or because he can’t exert any influence on the people and events described in it. Stories that fill the news of the day are also usually presented without enough context for consumers to understand them or to draw the proper conclusions from them.

The author, Neil Postman, met Marshall McLuhan, and some of the latter’s ideas influenced this book. However, Postman also disagrees with McLuhan on some points.

A culture’s dominant communications medium will determine how it thinks. America is a TV-dominated culture. [As of the time this analysis is being written, America is well into a transition to being an internet-dominated culture, which is even more hostile to intelligent discourse and maturity. Neil Postman died in 2003, before the invention of smartphones and before the rise of social media, internet celebrities, “curated realities,” and “echo chambers,” and I think he’d view today’s situation as even worse than it was in the 1980s.]

The advents of past technologies have changed how humans think, and expanded what we were capable of imagining.

  • The invention of clocks changed the human relationship with time. Seasons and the sense of eternity lost importance once people had an accurate, finely gradated way to measure time.
  • The invention of writing allowed humans to synthesize more complex ideas. Once written down, ideas can be studied, their flaws found, and the ideas either rejected or revised.
  • Writing also allowed ideas to spread faster and more widely, since they persisted over time and could be received by more people.

America is transitioning from a print/writing culture to a visual culture.

Chapter 2 – Media as Epistemology

TV has made American public discourse silly and dangerous.

The medium determines what is considered to be “true.” Proof:

  • Oral cultures that lack writing systems rely on proverbs and sayings to remember what is “true” or “right.” “Haste makes waste” is a good example of one of these. In oral cultures, these will be more commonly known and taken seriously.
  • A relevant anecdote from when the author was examining a Ph.D. dissertation: ‘You are mistaken in believing that the form in which an idea is conveyed is irrelevant to its truth. In the academic world, the published word is invested with greater prestige and authenticity than the spoken word. What people say is assumed to be more casually uttered than what they write. The written word is assumed to have been reflected upon and revised by its author, reviewed by authorities and editors. It is easier to verify or refute, and it is invested with an impersonal and objective character…The written word endures, the spoken word disappears; and that is why writing is closer to the truth than speaking. Moreover, we are sure you would prefer that this commission produce a written statement that you have passed your examination (should you do so) than for us merely to tell you that you have, and leave it at that. Our written statement would represent the “truth.” Our oral agreement would be only a rumor.’
  • [One of the worst aspects of social media is that content can be produced and circulated instantaneously, like speech, but that it persists permanently, like writing. As a result, social media is awash in impulsive utterances that unfairly destroy careers and lives in seconds.]
  • The ancient Athenians considered “rhetoric,” the persuasiveness and emotion of an oral performance, to be the best measure of its truthfulness. Good public speaking skills were prized personal attributes. [The problem in elevating this to such a high level of cultural importance is that it is entirely possible for a person to be persuasive and dishonest at the same time. The quality or truthfulness of an idea shouldn’t be judged based on how well the person espousing it can debate or think on his feet. A responsible citizen takes the time to study all sides of an issue alone and to make a dispassionate judgement, and doesn’t let himself be swayed by someone who is skilled in manipulating his emotions or forcefully presenting only one half of the story. “You have to convince me” is a lazy and unintellectual stance.]
  • Side note: In spite of their seminal contributions to Western civilization, the philosophers of ancient Greece made the monumental flaw of assuming that all knowledge could be gleaned through deduction. In other words, starting with a handful of facts that were known to the true, they believed they could use reasonable assumptions to discover everything else that was true. This was a fundamentally anti-scientific way of thinking that stymied them, as it led them to believe that new knowledge didn’t need to be gained by running experiments.

Different types of media put different demands on people, leading to those people forming different values:

  • In oral cultures that lack writing, people value the ability to easily memorize things, and the better your memory, the smarter you are perceived as being.
  • In print cultures that have writing, having a good memory is much less important since any person can look up nearly any piece of information. Being able to memorize and recite facts is useful for trivia. People who are able to sit still for long periods in silence reading books, and who can easily absorb the things they read, are perceived as being smart.

Different types of media encourage and nurture different cognitive habits.

TV is an inferior medium to print when it comes to conveying serious ideas.

However, the TV medium has some positive attributes:

  • Having a moving, talking image of another human being in the room with you can provide emotional comfort. TV makes the lives of many isolated people–especially the elderly–slightly better.
  • Films and videos can be highly effective at raising awareness of problems, like racism and social injustice. [The implication is that seeing a lifelike image of someone else suffering is more emotionally impactful than merely reading about it or listening to a third person speak about it.]

Chapter 3 – Typographic America

In 1600s New England, the adult literacy rate was probably the highest in the world. The region was heavily Protestant, and their faith emphasized the importance of reading the Bible to have a more direct relationship with God, so literacy became widespread.

England’s literacy rate was slightly lower than New England’s.

New Englanders also valued schooling, which is another reason why literacy rates were high.

Even among poor colonial New Englanders, literacy rates were high, and reading was a common form of recreation.

The political essay “Common Sense” was published in 1776 as a short book that could be bought cheaply. The percentage of Americans that read it within the first few months of its publication was comparable to the share of Americans that watch the Superbowl today.

Newspapers and pamphlets were more widely read in colonial America than they were in Britain.

By 1800, the U.S. was a fully “print-based” culture. Even in poor parts of the South, literacy rates were high and reading was a common daily activity. The best American authors were as famous then as movie stars are now.

Attending public lectures also became a popular pastime, and by 1830, there were 3,000 lecture halls in America. Average people commonly went to local lecture halls after work to see presentations about academic subjects, as well as to see debates.

The fact that the U.S. was founded by upper-class, intellectual people helped establish the country’s literary culture.

The printing press made epic, lyrical poetry obsolete.

Chapter 4 – The typographic mind

In 1858, U.S. Senate candidates Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas toured Illinois together and held public debates with each other over the subject of slavery. The events took place in seven cities, were well-attended, and each went on for hours. They became known as the “Lincoln-Douglas debates.”

The transcripts of the Debates still exist, and show both men were extremely gifted orators. Their statements were information-dense and assumed a high level of knowledge on the part of listeners; none of what they said was dumbed down. The fact that average people who attended the Debates could understand them indicates that the Americans of the 1850s had better attention spans, listening skills, and probably reading comprehension skills than Americans today. Such are the advantages of being in a print-based culture. [Note that this book was published in 1986, and there’s a widespread belief among Americans now, in 2021, that the internet and personal computing devices have made those three attributes even worse.]

Today’s TV culture promotes stupidity and stupid thinking, by comparison.

The Lincoln-Douglas debates were civil and complex, and so were their audiences. While the Debates were of course conducted orally, much of what was said came from written notes.

By its nature, writing must always convey some kind of proposition. [Meaningless writing might take the form of a series of random words, or bad poetry that no one can understand.] Thus, a print-based culture encourages meaningful and intelligible discourse.

‘Thus, reading is by its nature a serious business. It is also, of course, an essentially rational activity. From Erasmus in the sixteenth century to Elizabeth Eisenstein in the twentieth, almost every scholar who has grappled with the question of what reading does to one’s habits of mind has concluded that the process encourages rationality; that the sequential, propositional character of the written word fosters what Walter Ong calls the “analytic management of knowledge.” To engage the written word means to follow a line of thought, which requires considerable powers of classifying, inference-making and reasoning. It means to uncover lies, confusions, and overgeneralizations, to detect abuses of logic and common sense. It also means to weigh ideas, to compare and contrast assertions, to connect one generalization to another.’

[I independently came to the same conclusion years ago. Written communication’s great advantage is that it forces a person to reflect upon his own thoughts and to organize them into a rational form. This is crucially important since raw human thinking is chaotic, fragmentary and impulsive. This also leads me to believe that mind-reading technologies that allow people to share thoughts will have major downsides. Having direct access to another person’s inner monologue in real time could be confusing and lead to strife as you became aware of every fleeting thought and uncontrollable impulse they had. In most cases, it would be preferable to wait a little longer for them to convert their thoughts into spoken or written words.]

Reading and writing require and encourage grounded, meaningful, analytical thinking. Watching TV does not.

By necessity, writing must be orderly, so reading encourages orderly thinking. It even promotes more orderly verbal discourse between people.

It’s no coincidence that the Age of Reason happened while print culture was at its peak in the West:

  • Rise of capitalism
  • Rise of skepticism of religion
  • Divine right of kings rejected
  • Rise of idea of continuous progress
  • Rise of an appreciation for the value of mass literacy

Early American theologians were brilliant, literary men who valued education, including in secular subjects. Congregationalists founded many important universities that still exist.

The different effects of print culture and TV culture on religious discourse are evident if one compares the sermons and religious essays of John Edwards with those of Jerry Falwell. Edwards’ ideas are complex and logically argued, whereas Falwell’s are simpler and designed to play on the listener’s emotions.

Newspaper ads were originally lineal and fact-based. During the 1890s, they changed so as to be amusing and to appeal to consumers’ emotions. The Kodak camera ad featuring the jingo “You Press the Button, We Do the Rest” was the first “modern” ad.

Though no one knew it at the time, this was a bad milestone for print culture, as it marked the dawn of an age when printed words and images would be crafted to manipulate emotions and human psychology, rather than to appeal to reason and to present complete ideas.

Without televisions or even many photos (even in newspapers), Americans in the 1800s knew famous people through their writings and ideas. Few would even have recognized their own President on sight. By contrast, because today’s TV culture is visual and disjointed, we know famous people by their faces and soundbites. [Videos of American political activists being interviewed on the street and asked to name one accomplishment or policy stance of their preferred Presidential candidate attest to this. Often, a person waving around a political placard with a politician’s face on it can’t describe what that politician stands for or plans to do if elected.]

‘To these people, reading was both their connection to and their model of the world. The printed page revealed the world, line by line, page by page, to be a serious, coherent place, capable of management by reason, and of improvement by logical and relevant criticism.

Almost anywhere one looks in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, then, one finds the resonances of the printed word and, in particular, its inextricable relationship to all forms of public expression. It may be true, as Charles Beard wrote, that the primary motivation of the writers of the United States Constitution was the protection of their economic interests. But it is also true that they assumed that participation in public life required the capacity to negotiate the printed word. To them, mature citizenship was not conceivable without sophisticated literacy, which is why the voting age in most states was set at twenty-one, and why Jefferson saw in universal education America’s best hope. And that is also why, as Allan Nevins and Henry Steele Commager have pointed out, the voting restrictions against those who owned no property were frequently overlooked, but not one’s inability to read.’

Chapter 5 – The Peek-a-Boo World

In the mid-1800s, two ideas changed American discourse: 1) instant communication (e.g. – speed of ideas and news no longer limited by how fast a person can travel), and 2) the birth of photography.

The telegraph and Morse Code unified and redefined public discourse in the U.S. Previously, the vast majority of news Americans knew of was about local events and local people. It was directly relevant to them, and they could exercise some influence over it. However, the telegraph made it possible for people to hear about events and people from the far-flung corners of the planet, instantaneously. This exponentially increased the quantity of “news” content average Americans were exposed to. However, the vast majority of this new information was irrelevant to them, was about people and things they couldn’t control, and was usually presented without enough contextual information.

Before the telegraph, news was presented rationally, and was about urgent things that had some direct impact on the people receiving the news. After the telegraph, the news largely consisted of irrelevant information that profit-hungry news media companies picked for shock value and entertainment value.

For proof of this, ask yourself the following questions:

  • Aside from weather reports, when is the last time a news story that you heard or read about in the morning convinced you to change your plans for the day, or to take some kind of action you wouldn’t have otherwise taken?
  • When is the last time something you learned from a news report helped you to solve a problem in your everyday life?

The news is mostly trivia. Like sports, it gives people something to talk about, but has no tangible use.

The telegraph created an “information glut” across the world, for the first time in history. However, most of the information has never been useful to most of the people receiving it.

The information glut also changed the cultural definition of what counts as a “smart” person. Smart people are now those who have a very broad but shallow knowledge of disconnected things, most of which are irrelevant to everyday life.

Before the telegraph, the stereotypical “smart” person was one who had deep, contextualized knowledge about a small number of topics. Also, people sought out information for its usefulness to them, they were not awash in a sea of useless information.

[But by this logic, weren’t many of the attendees to the Lincoln-Douglas debates “wasting their time” since they spent hours listening to two men talk about a subject that had no bearing on their daily lives since Illinois was not a slave state and none of them had black friends? The institution of slavery didn’t directly affect them, so wasn’t the subject mere trivia for them? Learning about and talking about things that have no relevance to the needs of the moment, and that affect people different from you is basic civic engagement, and not doing it is just as damaging to a culture as having everyone watch foolish TV programs all day. Though the author could surely render a satisfying answer to this paradox if he were alive, he doesn’t do so in the book, which is a mark against it.]

Photography is a shallow medium since it can’t convey internal states or depict meaning with the same depth as the written word. [I don’t fully agree. Also, recall that the author praised the TV medium’s effectiveness at raising awareness of problems, like racism and social injustice, by depicting human suffering in a way more visceral than the written word. Well, a video is nothing but a series of photographs showed in rapid sequence, so why shouldn’t it be true by extension that photography has the same virtues as video? After all, there are countless, famous photographs that have raised the public’s consciousness about important social issues and tragedies.]

It can also be a deceptive medium since photos can remove images of events and people from their contexts. Like the telegraph, it presents an atomized vision of reality where context is missing. [As an amateur photographer, I strongly agree with this. Walking around on a normal day, and in a not particularly interesting or unusual place, it’s quite possible to take snapshots of objects, people, and landscapes that, thanks to some trick of the lighting, camera angle, or momentary facial expression from a subject, look dramatic or emotionally evocative, and don’t portray what that scene really looked like or felt like to the people who were there at that moment. Black-and-white photography’s stylized appearance and the often-coarse appearance of developed film lends itself particularly well to this.]

It was soon found that news articles and ads that included photos were more eye-catching to people than those without.

“Pseudo-context” refers to how news publishers structure their articles to make them seem relevant and coherent to consumers, when in fact they have neither of those qualities. It’s a deception meant to hide the fact that consumers are being exposed to vast amounts of disconnected stories and facts about irrelevant things.

“Pseudo-events” are events that are deliberately staged to be reported upon by the news media, and in a way that benefits the people who have staged it. Press conferences and speeches to supporters are common examples. Pseudo-events have the superficial trappings of being important and significant, but they actually convey little or no useful or new information. Daniel Boorstin coined the term “pseudo-event” after observing the phenomenon.

[From other research, I found useful contrast between a “real” event with real consequences, and a pseudo-event that merely gives off the impression of being consequential: If the owners of a hotel want to boost their establishment’s value and appeal to customers, a legitimate strategy would be to improve some aspect of the hotel or their operations. This might involve hiring a better chef, installing new plumbing, or repainting the rooms, and then publicly announcing that the changes had been made. An alternative strategy, which could be just as effective at boosting profits, would be to hold a “pseudo-event” in the form of a banquet celebrating the hotel’s 30th anniversary. Important members of the community would be invited and praised, the owners of the hotel would make speeches about how it had somehow served the community, and members of the media would be invited and would almost certainly publish glowing news stories about the event. The perception that the hotel was better and more important than it actually was would be created in the minds of news consumers.]

[Thanks to social media and the proliferation of cable TV channels, we now have what could be called “pseudo news” shows, which superficially resemble respectable, traditional news broadcasts since they have charismatic presenters and move from discussing one recent event or pressing issue to the next, but which are actually entertainment and/or editorialization shows. Real events are brought up, but discussed in misleading ways. The viewer walks away from such a show thinking they are now well-informed, but in fact, they might have been better off not watching the show and never hearing about the event at all.]

Thanks to the information glut, we live in a “peek-a-boo” world full of nonsensical things that are presented to us in entertaining ways.

As a medium, television takes the worst and most distinctive elements of telegraphy and photography to new extremes. TV content is even more decontextualized, deceptive, irrelevant, and slanted towards amusement and shock value.

America now has a “TV culture,” whose features are antithetical to the nation’s former print culture. The deficiencies of TV as a medium make it fundamentally unsuited for supporting intellectual thinking or discourse.

Chapter 6 – The Age of Show Business

TV culture attacks literary culture

[Why does the author skip a discussion of radio culture by jumping from print culture to TV culture?]

American-made TV and film content is a major export. People in other countries consider it more entertaining than their own content. U.S. TV shows and films are more emotionally evocative, visually stimulating, and entertaining. [My years of traveling to other countries confirm this is true. In spite of how hollow and socially corrosive American pop culture is, it excels like none other at appealing to humans across the world. Additionally, the most successful TV shows and films indigenous to other countries usually copy elements from their American counterparts.]

All TV content is presented as entertainment. Even somber news shows are glitzy and entertaining.

The 1983 broadcast of the TV film The Day After was the most prominent attempt to use the TV medium for a serious, intellectual purpose. The film is a docu-drama about a nuclear war between the U.S. and U.S.S.R., and is jarring and disturbing to watch. The national broadcast was presented without commercial interruption, and was punctuated by comments from a panel of well-known American intellectuals including Carl Sagan and Henry Kissinger. Nonetheless, the broadcast failed in its attempt to foster meaningful discussion or insight into the topic, due to the limitations of the TV medium.

For example, the members of the panel never had a real “discussion” with each other–they delivered prepared talking points and avoided deeply addressing each others’ ideas.

A fundamental problem with TV as a medium is that people come across as stupid and/or boring if they pause to think about something, or if they appear uncertain about something. The medium is friendly to people who can give quick responses and who come prepared with rehearsed performances. Hence, TV is unconducive to most intellectuals and to “the act of thinking.” [This is extremely unfortunate, since the best ideas typically come after considerable time spent thinking, and since many great thinkers are not also great performers.]

Studies show that people instinctively prefer TV content that is visually stimulating and fast-paced. This means the sorts of TV programs that could be intellectual and serious, like two smart people sitting at a table having a long, focused discussion, are not considered as interesting. Since TV networks are always striving to find content that generates the highest ratings and hence profits, they naturally eschew those kinds of intelligent, serious programs in favor of flashy, entertaining programs.

[The rise of long-format podcasts in the 2010s partly contradicts this.]

In the U.S., all cultural content is filtered through the TV medium, and as such has acquired the negative qualities of typical TV programming. News programs are glitzy, shocking and entertaining when they should be serious, and religious broadcasts are also made to be entertaining rather than contemplative.

Because everything on TV is presented to Americans this way, Americans have come to expect everything to be entertaining:

  • Legal trials about serious crimes like murder are televised for entertainment and shock value.
  • Education courses include more and more videos that present subjects as entertainment.
  • The 1984 Presidential debates between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale were nothing like the Lincoln-Douglas Debates. Instead of spending a lot of time deeply discussing and debating a narrow range of related issues, the 1984 Debates only devoted five minutes to each issue, which was an impossibly short amount of time to discuss any of them in depth or for one participant to rigorously cross-examine the other. There was little focus on the candidates’ ideas or logic undergirding their ideas. Instead, it was a contest of who could get out the best “zingers” and who looked better in front of the camera. [The 2016 and 2020 Presidential Debates were infinitely worse.]

Chapter 7 – “Now…this.”

The expression “Now…this” is commonly used on news broadcasts when moving from one story to the next. It forces viewers to stop thinking about one thing and to focus on another. Its use shows how the news us full of disconnected events, people and ideas.

Studies of viewer preferences show that people are more likely to watch news broadcasts that have physically attractive anchors. News media companies have thus gravitated towards hiring attractive anchors to maximize their ratings and hence profits. [The profit motive is behind most of the dysfunctions in TV and internet news.]

Studies also show that humans are likelier to believe something if the person saying it appears sincere. This more intangible but still detectable quality is also used as a basis for hiring and promotion decisions at TV news stations. This is problematic because such things as skillful liars exist, and there’s no reason an off-putting people can’t be speaking the truth about something.

[To be fair, since this book was published, science has learned a large amount about how nonverbal aspects of communication in the forms of facial microexpressions, eye movements, body language, appropriateness of emotional displays, and other unconscious aspects of speech and behavior reveal deceit. In most cases, people’s instincts let them accurately detect dishonesty or malice.]

The fact that news anchors must recite their lines with a more-or-less upbeat tone, even when describing tragedies, lends a degree of unreality to TV news and prevents the TV medium from accurately conveying the sense of tragedy or loss associated with the event. [What’s the alternative? Should news programs relentlessly dwell on every report of a major loss of life so as to make sure viewers end up feeling depressed and disgusted? It’s a big world, and on any given day, a major loss of life or gruesome crime is happening somewhere, and portraying those events in ways that accurately conveyed their impacts would make the daily news too traumatic and emotionally draining for people to watch.]

[The author’s complaint that TV news anchors lack emotional investment in the stories they report on is obsolescent. The internet age has caused the news media landscape to fragment into thousands of smaller outlets catering to highly specific demographics of viewers. The anchors who lead these new programs are guilty of the opposite sin–overinvestment of emotion into their reporting, and to such a degree that any pretense of neutrality (and sometimes, adult maturity) is sacrificed. The inhuman detachment of 1980s TV news anchors has mostly been replaced by excessive outrage, crocodile tears, sanctimony, and sarcasm.]

“Now…this” is also often used as a lead-in for commercials. The seriousness of news broadcasts is undermined by the fact that they are punctuated by commercials, which are usually lighthearted.

TV news shows avoid complexity and move through a diverse range of stories and topics quickly.

Partly as a result of news broadcasts’ deficiencies, Americans are poorly informed about people and events outside of their country.

Again, the features and limitations of TV as a medium of communication alter how news is presented through it. TV news programs will inevitably gravitate towards presenting news content as entertainment, and as a series of disconnected, bite-sized stories. The result is in fact “disinformation” since it leaves viewers with the false impression that watching a news broadcast has made them well-informed about events, issues and important people, when in fact they aren’t.

TV news broadcasts also annihilate the sense that a “past” exists because all they depict is a churning of “present” events. Things that happened in the past are quickly muscled out by a deluge of new things. The perpetual focus on the present moment makes it harder for news consumers to notice lies and inconsistencies, as the news seldom has the time to dredge up older things that a person said or did that proved to be wrong or contradict what they are saying or doing now.

[Again, the internet age has turned the problem on its head. Because every famous person’s quotes and records of their actions are now available on the internet and instantly searchable, it has become easy to find every tasteless statement, lie, and contradiction, and to package them into a bite-sized product like a social media meme. With access to a lifetime’s worth of records, you can make any person look like an evil liar. If the TV culture of the 1980s was one where there was only ever a “present moment,” the new internet culture is one where you can pick whatever moment you want to live in. If you don’t like a specific politician, you can curate your social media and TV news bubble so as to only allow in negative content about them, including every lie or crass statement from decades ago. As a result, this is an age of cynicism and self-righteousness. While the TV news “gatekeepers” of the 1980s had their flaws and biases, they were more sensible and grounded in reality than the multitudes of amateurs who today manufacture biased memes and make extremist podcasts, and define what “reality” is for a large and growing share of the human population.]

Print culture encourages the opposite mindset. Since it is easy to turn pages back and forth in a book or newspaper, readers are aware of context and of the linear order of events, and they can spot lies and inconsistencies by cross-referencing different passages.

Aspects of Aldous Huxley’s dystopia, described in his book Brave New World, now exist in modern America. The government has no need to censor anything because its citizens are so occupied with silly pursuits and so easily misled by corporate-manufactured disinformation that they have no time or interest in uncovering the truth about the world. Specifically, accurate reporting about important events and people can still be found in America, as can thoughtful discourse about every issue and problem, but few Americans pay attention to it, largely because they consider it to be too boring. The market has given Americans what they want, and it is trash TV and dumbed-down news programs.

Even newspapers are mimicking aspects of TV news broadcasts. USA Today is the leading example of this transition.

Radio is more resistant to the transition, but it is declining nonetheless. Radio broadcasts increasingly resemble TV programs, in the worst ways.

Chapter 8 – Shuffle off to Bethlehem

Televangelists are the new faces of Christianity in America.

Episodes of the 700 Club are slickly made, entertaining, comforting, and superficially serious in tone.

Televangelist shows always focus on the preacher and his personality. God is never the central figure in the broadcasts, and instead exists in the background. Major religious themes like hallowed rituals and achieving transcendence through religion are absent.

Again, the TV medium forces televangelist shows to have these qualities.

The social and psychological meaning of religion in America has changed since people started watching televangelist broadcasts.

  • Traditional, in-person religious services happen in houses of worship, which are quiet, and, in the case of cathedrals, grand places. The central portions of houses of worship are also only ever used for religious ceremonies. As a result, the environments naturally lend themselves to serious and contemplative thinking among visitors. In a church, a person can really immerse himself in prayer and religious thought, and pull himself out of his everyday mindset. [In the modern era of skyscrapers and technological wonders, many of the old cathedrals of Europe are still awe-inspiring. You can appreciate how those same cathedrals would have made peasants feel the grandeur of God in the Middle Ages, when most people lived in terrible conditions and had very little mental stimulation each day. Yes, the form a religious house of worship takes has a major impact on the psychology of its adherents.]
  • By contrast, televangelist broadcasts are watched on living room televisions in private homes. The spaces where religious services thus occur are not consecrated, and the viewer does not associate them with anything especially divine or otherworldly. Viewers associate their own TV sets with entertainment and the secular world, which unconsciously affects how they perceive religious shows. It’s nearly impossible to get into the right mindset. [Will full-immersion virtual reality fix this?]

A valuable and authentic religious experience is enchanting, not entertaining.

Chapter 9 – Reach out and elect someone

The TV commercial is now a metaphor for American politics.

Capitalism is an efficient system for allocating resources only if certain conditions exist. One of those conditions is that buyers and sellers are rational, and the other is that they are just as informed as each other about market conditions and the quality of the good or service they are considering exchanging. In reality, these ideal conditions seldom exist.

Modern advertisements, and especially TV commercials, show how reality diverges from theory in ways that encourage capitalist systems to misallocate resources:

  • In a rational world, companies would only create ads that contained factual information about the quality of their goods and services, and consumers would coolly study different ads to empirically determine which product among the competing companies best satisfied their needs.
  • In the real world, ads contain little or no factual information about the goods or services being offered, and they are instead meticulously designed to prey upon the emotions, insecurities, and psychological weaknesses of consumers. Thanks to ads, consumers are frequently persuaded to spend money on things that don’t satisfy their actual needs well, or at all, and companies offering superior goods and services can go bankrupt if they don’t market themselves the right way.

[As I’ve mentioned before, and plan to discuss at greater length in a future blog post, this inefficiency could shrink and ultimately disappear in the future thanks to better technology. In the very long run, once posthumans and/or AIs take over civilization, the phenomenon of disingenuous marketing will probably vanish since consumers will be too smart and self-controlled to fall for such tricks. Being prey to one’s uncontrollable emotions and not having the cognitive capacity to remember and mentally compare the qualities and prices of different things will turn out to be uniquely Homo sapien problems.]

In modern America, politicians use TV commercials as their primary means of communicating with voters.

By necessity, commercials must be short, and must tell simple stories about things and offer simple solutions to problems. Years of seeing political commercials like these have shaped the expectations of American voters.

To succeed, modern politicians need “image managers,” and they must have personal appeal that comes across clearly on TV. Elections are no longer decided on the basis of which candidate is the better technical fit for the position’s demands; they are decided based on who looks better on TV.

Relevant credentials for holding elected office include:

  • Skills as a negotiator
  • Past success in an executive position
  • Knowledge of international affairs
  • Knowledge of economics

Public speaking ability, physical attractiveness, and debating skills don’t have any bearing on a person’s ability to make good policy decisions in a political position. Unfortunately, few American voters grasp this, and they routinely choose candidates based on those kinds of unimportant traits. The TV medium makes voters aware of those traits.

Commercials have primed Americans to vote for politicians that have the best TV personas.

Americans don’t vote in their own rational self-interests anymore; they vote for politicians who have the best TV images. The term “image politics” describes the phenomenon.

In the past, when America was a print culture, few people saw images of national politicians. They had no clue what different candidates looked like, and had to make voting decisions based on things they read in newspapers and pamphlets, and through discussions with their peers. A candidate’s “image” was not a factor.

Because TV culture is image-based, the medium has the immediacy and decontextualized qualities of photography. In infuses a mindset among its viewers that there is only a present moment, and that the past does not exist. This is partly why Americans know so little about history.

Even in Ancient Greece, a place associated with wisdom and intellectualism, government censorship of books was common (Protagoras).

George Orwell’s prediction that Western governments would eventually resort to book censorship as a way to control their citizens proved wrong. Instead, the same end has been achieved through the creation of fickle cultures in which people don’t want to read books. Huxley’s dystopia proved accurate.

In the U.S., TV censorship is done by the three big corporate media networks, not the government. This is also not what Orwell predicted. [But as internet culture shows, atomizing the media landscape and effectively eliminating the small clique of corporate gatekeepers brings a different set of problems. Now, nothing is censored, and anyone in America can look at whatever he wants. This has led to people self-segregating into highly specific demographics with their own realities and belief systems. It has also worsened the “information overload” problem, and made it harder for people to tell which information is reliable and which is not. ]

TV programs have muscled out books in the competition for Americans’ spare time.

Thanks to TV, Americans can’t tell the difference between entertainment and serious discourse anymore.

Chapter 10 – Teaching as an amusing activity

Sesame Street is a popular show for young children that is both entertaining and educational.

The author is skeptical of claims that any type of TV program can be very educational. Again, this owes to fundamental aspects of TV as a medium. TV watching is a passive, solitary activity, whereas effective classroom instruction is an interactive and social one.

Sesame Street encourages viewers to love TV, not school. In habituating children to TV watching, it and other “educational” programs encourage mindsets and skills that are unlike those they need to excel in the classroom.

TV is the first medium to merge teaching with entertainment. [Is the internet the second?] Learning is not supposed to be pleasurable.

Three commandments of educational TV content:

  1. “Thou shalt have no prerequisites.” A program can’t require the viewer to have previous knowledge, and it must stand alone as a complete package. The process of learning must not be depicted as a sequential one, where learning one thing establishes a foundation for one or more new things.
  2. “Thou shalt induce no perplexity.” All information that the program presents must be simple enough for anyone to understand. This does an injustice, since many concepts are not easy to grasp, and must be thought about again and again until the learner understands them.
  3. “Thou shalt avoid exposition like the ten plagues visited upon Egypt.” All content must be presented as a story, with everything depicted visually. The viewer should never have to read a dense passage of text on the screen or see an intellectual talking at length using complex language.

Classroom instruction is taking on more aspects of entertainment. “The Voyage of the Mimi” epitomizes everything about this trend. It is a 26-episode educational TV series focusing on lessons in science and math. A package of materials includes all the videos, along with worksheets and tests that teachers use in the classroom to accompany the footage.

[Embracing the opposite extreme, which would be an overly serious and intense teaching style where no effort was made to make lessons fun, would also create problems since many students wouldn’t mentally engage. Formal classroom settings are very artificial environments and are especially unnatural for children: For 99% of our species’ existence, there were no classrooms, and children learned things informally and each day from older children and adults, who interacted with them in informal settings or during work. ]

The effectiveness of that series and others like it is dubious. Studies show that students quickly forget almost all the new information they are exposed to in video lessons.

Similarly, people quickly forget most of what they see on TV news broadcasts. However, they remember more information if they read a newspaper. The act of reading is a better way to learn something than watching a video.

As a medium, TV is suited for entertainment, not learning.

[I think the author overreacted to the first intrusions of TV into mass education in the 1980s, possibly because he assumed the trend would continue as time passed, until someday, students only watched TV programs at school. Fortunately, that didn’t come to pass, and classroom instruction is still mostly traditional and didactic, involving a teacher standing at the front of the room where he talks and writes things on a blackboard or big screen.]

Chapter 11 – The Huxleyan warning

We are now living in a Huxleyan dystopia: People voluntarily occupy themselves with entertainment and trivialities. Politics are no longer serious.

If the situation worsens, America could experience “culture-death.”

The Orwellian dystopia is no longer a threat to the world. [It’s too early to say this. As China shows, new technologies have renewed the threat and effectiveness of government-directed mass surveillance and mass control. We could be headed for a future where it is technologically possible to monitor every human in real time, and to even infer what they are thinking and feeling.]

Americans live in an invisible, insidious prison.

America’s Huxleyan dystopia is hard to fight since no one has forcefully imposed it on us, it is not centrally planned, and it lacks a written doctrine like Mein Kampf. It is everywhere and nowhere.

As a technology, TV is destroying American culture. This is hard for Americans to see and to accept, since they have a uniquely strong faith in technology and progress. Convincing them that a technology is hurting them is a major challenge.

[Since the 1980s, Americans’ opinions of technology and progress have become schizophrenic. In the 2020s, there is widespread agreement that social media and biased TV news networks have damaged American culture and discourse, that smartphones and cleverly designed apps have made people addicted to their personal devices, and that civilizational progress has already halted or soon will, leading to a long decline of living standards and order. The preoccupation with global warming doomsday scenarios and the proliferation of post-apocalyptic future movies partly speak to the latter point. At the same time, Americans are unwilling to do much to address these problems, and very few of them are taking any personal measures to prepare for the doomsday futures they say they believe are coming.]

The author’s suggestions for fighting against TV culture:

  • Don’t try banning TV. It’s too popular, so there’s no hope of success, and proposing such a thing will only alienate people.
  • Start a cultural movement in which people take long breaks from TV watching. [Reminds me of today’s phenomena of “digital detoxing” and “social media breaks.”]
  • Ban political commercials.
  • Spread awareness of this book’s main points, including the fact that different types of media have different effects on culture and mindsets.
  • Ironically, an effective way to make people aware of the toxic effects of TV and of the stupidity of TV programming would be to air comedy skits on TV that mocked TV and showed how the programs stupefied their viewers. Use TV to lampoon TV.
  • Better public education.

The author’s passing analysis of personal computers as a medium:

‘For no medium is excessively dangerous if its users understand what its dangers are...To which I might add that questions about the psychic, political and social effects of information are as applicable to the computer as to television. Although I believe the computer to be a vastly overrated technology, I mention it here because, clearly, Americans have accorded it their customary mindless inattention; which means they will use it as they are told, without a whimper. Thus, a central thesis of computer technology–that the principal difficulty we have in solving problems stems from insufficient data–will go unexamined. Until, years from now, when it will be noticed that the massive collection and speed-of-light retrieval of data have been of great value to large-scale organizations but have solved very little of importance to most people and have created at least as many problems for them as they may have solved. ‘

[The analysis is both very wrong and very right. Personal computing devices have transformed society, the economy, and our daily habits so much since the 1980s that it’s hard to defend a claim that they have proved “to be a vastly overrated technology.” However, the author rightly predicted that computing devices paired with the internet would, like TV, inundate people with large amounts of irrelevant, decontextualized information. In fact, the problem has gotten worse since the amount of internet content available now is exponentially larger than the amount of TV content that was available in the 1980s. In the internet era, American politics have gotten more dysfunctional and childish, and elections are decided for more fickle reasons than in the 1980s. Today, Americans actually look back on the 1980s as a calmer and more hopeful era when people had better social skills. Ronald Reagan, whom the author bashes as being a superficial and dishonest man who cleverly exploited the TV medium to become President and hide his later mistakes, was much more intellectual, dignified and well-spoken than Donald Trump, who exploited social media (Twitter, specifically) to become President and to control the national political narrative during his term of office.

It’s certainly true that more data about a problem helps you to formulate a good solution to it, and that personal computing devices and the internet can be used to gather data about problems. However, the medium’s flaw is that bad data is mixed in with good data, it can be very hard for people to tell them apart, and human psychology naturally leads people to latch on to data that are psychologically or emotionally comforting to them. There’s no correlation between how comforting a belief is and how true it is.

The author’s point that the computer / internet era would enrich large organizations that found ways to leverage information technology to make money was very accurate. As of this writing, six of the top ten global companies with the highest market caps are technology companies that use customer data collection and analysis to make most or all of their money.

The author’s final prediction that computers will end up creating at least as many problems for ordinary people as they solve is debatable. Certainly, computing devices and the internet have created a variety of problems and worsened problems that existed during the TV culture era of the 1980s, but the new paradigm has also benefitted people in many important ways. For example, it has made commerce easier and more efficient since customers now have access to a much larger array of goods and services, which they can purchase by pushing a button, without having to leave home. It’s debatable whether computers an the internet have, on balance, not improved the lives of ordinary people.]

Interesting articles, June 2021

Belgian police guarding the meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had some heavy-duty anti-drone weapons.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/06/decades-in-the-making-russias-nauka-module-to-finally-take-flight/

Eighty years ago, Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210621-hitler-s-war-of-annihilation-operation-barbarossa-80-years-on

China won’t invade Taiwan partly because the island’s de facto independent status is too politically valuable to China’s leaders.
https://supchina.com/2021/06/07/no-china-will-not-invade-taiwan/

As U.S. removes its troops from Afghanistan ahead of its 9/11/2021 deadline to end the war there, the Taliban have been rapidly reconquering the country. U.S. intelligence believes the democratic government could collapse as little as six months after the U.S. withdrawal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan-government-could-collapse-six-months-after-u-s-withdrawal-new-intelligence-assessment-says-11624466743

The Chilean battleship Almirante Latorre was built in Britain and had a fascinating lifetime of service.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/how-did-south-american-battleship-end-royal-navy-187486

As huge as modern cargo ships are, they will probably be more than twice as big by midcentury. There is no known engineering limit on how large a ship can be. (In the articles, note that “TEU” = “twenty-foot equivalent unit.” It refers to a rectangular shipping container that is 20′ x 8′ x 8′. A cargo ship with a capacity of 20,000 TEUs can fit 20,000 shipping containers of that size into itself.)
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/50000-teu-the-future-or-not
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/how-container-shipping-could-reinvent-itself-for-the-digital-age#

Would it be cheaper to move cargo between East Asia and North America using a Bering Strait train tunnel that it is to move it via cargo ships? Considering that it’s cheaper to transfer goods between many different points in the U.S. by putting them on ships that go all the way down to the Panama Canal and back than it is to use the national railway network to move them, probably not.
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/comparing-maritime-versus-railway-transportation-costs
https://blogs.voanews.com/russia-watch/2012/04/28/join-russia-and-usa-by-rail-tunnels-under-the-bering-strait/

Facebook’s market cap hit $1 trillion.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/28/tech/facebook-trillion-ftc/index.html

Microsoft’s market cap hit $2 trillion.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/microsoft-rallies-to-join-apple-in-exclusive-2-trillion-club

Elon Musk’s wife, “Grimes,” released a brief video explaining why AI will resurrect communism. Everything she says in it is logical, and I came to all of the same conclusions years ago. Granted, she oversimplifies it. It’s more accurate to say that, thanks to AI, humans will no longer be able to participate in the capitalist economy, so we’ll all get on welfare, paid for by our hyper-productive machines. We’ll also find that it’s much cheaper and more efficient to replace all government bureaucrats with AIs, and perhaps in the longer run to replace elected politicians with machines programmed to maximize the public good (it is actually possible for a country to be Communist and democratic at the same time, and it is also possible for a dictatorship to be both benign and more efficient than a democracy). The result would be a society that resembled Communism in many ways. All basic and intermediate needs would be paid for by the state, class and wealth differences among humans would vanish since no one would have gainful jobs anymore, the “ability” and “needs” of each human would be known and satisfied, and efficient central planning of the economy would be possible.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9649909/Grimes-goes-TikTok-rant-claiming-artificial-intelligence-key-communist-future.html

Machines are getting better at the art of debate. There’s no reason to believe AIs won’t someday be as persuasive, oratorically gifted, and manipulative as the best human debaters, lawyers, politicians, and conmen.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03215-w

Using prefabricated modules and modular building techniques, a 10-story condo building was erected in only 29 hours in China.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9716291/What-wrong-Chinese-builders-construct-ten-storey-apartment-block-29-HOURS.html

“Prestigious European grants might be biased, study suggests”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01362-8

The FDA has approved the dieting drug “Wegovy,” which reduces body weight by 15%.
https://apnews.com/article/science-obesity-lifestyle-business-health-c6f992d717c6461ef20f40e6d4ee9d25

The FDA also approved the Alzheimer’s treatment drug “Aducanumab,” even though clinical studies failed to show any clear benefits to patients. Some members of the approval body resigned in protest after the decision, and the drug will cost tens of thousands of dollars per user, per year.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/two-members-fda-panel-resign-protest-over-alzheimer-s-drug-n1270300

The alleged decline in sperm counts among European and North American men might be grossly exaggerated.
https://reason.com/2021/06/08/spermageddon-has-been-canceled-says-new-study/

“In vitro gametogenesis” (IVG) is an experimental lab technique that turns skin or blood cells from any adult into sperm or egg cells, which can then be used to create embryos. If IVG is perfected, it would effectively open the door to human genetic engineering.
https://www.freethink.com/videos/ivg-in-vitro-gametogenesis

The entire human genome has finally been sequenced. The holdouts were repetitive sections of the chromosomes that don’t code for physical traits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U88_FTFWUOk

China just activated the Baihetan Dam. It’s the second-biggest dam in the world. The biggest is the Three Gorges Dam, which is also in China.
https://apnews.com/article/china-dams-business-49bd453ecd314b3b1292aaa429c91be6

‘The energy reserves in the upper 10 km of the earth’s crust are approximately 1.3 × 1027 J, which could supply the global energy use for approximately 217 million years.’
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032117310341

Between 1971 and 2013, nuclear power saved 1.8 million lives.
https://www.ans.org/news/article-1306/friday-matinee-nuclear-power-saves-lives/

In 1973, the U.S. Skylab space station experienced several malfunctions, forcing NASA to plan for a possible evacuation. Two astronauts in a modified Saturn-V rocket would have flown to the station, embarked the three others, and flown back to Earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Skylab_Rescue

‘The Russians have said they may pull out of the program in 2025 and build a brand-new station. So why launch a new module just a few years before exiting the station? One possibility is that the Russians are simply posturing.’
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/06/decades-in-the-making-russias-nauka-module-to-finally-take-flight/

Here’s a fascinating video about the Oort Cloud, a sphere of comets and meteoroids encircling our Solar System. It’s really far out and extends to a distance of 1.5 light years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4mc-alL92U

Dyson–Harrop satellites would harvest energy from the solar wind, and not from a photovoltaic effect.
https://youtu.be/CCXOmTRX7Fo

‘Dyson Sphere Impracticalities: Although the Dyson sphere can produce very high amounts of power (~4 x 1026 W) [5], its design has a number of disadvantages. If all of the matter in a solar system roughly the mass of ours is used to construct a sphere with radius of just 1 AU, the sphere would only be 8 cm thick (with an average density equal to that of steel). Additionally, it has been calculated [6] that the minimal radius of a Dyson sphere must be at least 1.66 AU in order to successfully dissipate thermal energy absorbed by the Sun in a useful fashion—a smaller sphere could suffer a cataclysmic thermal event (e.g. explosion or melting). Currently, there exist no manmade materials that can stand up to the stress that would be felt at every point along the surface of such a gargantuan structure [7].’
https://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/abscicon2010/pdf/5469.pdf

The recent “Chamoli disaster” involved a landslide of snow and massive rocks in India’s Himalayas. They slid down a mountainside, impacted the bottom of the river valley with the force of 15 Hiroshima atom bombs, and the pulverized debris surged down the river fast enough to destroy a dam and kill 200 people.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57446224

Around 1960, an artist named “Arthur Radebaugh” made many cartoon drawings depicting his visions of the future. Some came true, others didn’t, and still others came true “in spirit.” Regardless, his art is a cool time capsule from the childhood era of the Baby Boomers.
https://gizmodo.com/42-visions-for-tomorrow-from-the-golden-age-of-futurism-1683553063

On October 9, 1903, the New York Times published an editorial predicting that planes wouldn’t be invented for another “one million to ten million years.” The Wright Brothers’ famous flight happened nine weeks later.
https://nowiknow.com/a-million-years-give-or-take/

From 1989: ‘A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.’
https://apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

During the second, panicky month of the pandemic, this was published. It predicted a coronavirus pandemic would kill 65 million people worldwide by now. The figure is in fact 13 million, which is terrible, but falls far short of the simulation’s estimate.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/a-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-in-2019-killed-65-million.html

The “Delta” variant of COVID-19 originated in India and is rapidly becoming the dominant strain globally because it spreads the fastest between people. It doesn’t seem to be deadlier or more resistant to the vaccines than other strains of the virus.
https://www.politico.eu/article/delta-coronavirus-variant-doubles-risk-of-hospitalization-scottish-study/

The U.S. hit 600,000 deaths, meaning the University of Washington Model was right again. Fortunately, the death rate has sharply dropped, and the Model doesn’t forecast us hitting the 700,000 mark until sometime in 2022.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-600k-deaths-us-1ef14a0b998e6ce99281edf6e996dfbe

Review: “Terminator Salvation”

Plot:

Terminator Salvation is a 2009 action / sci-fi film set in the then-future year of 2018. It follows the events of the preceding film, Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, in which the U.S. military supercomputer “Skynet” initiated a nuclear war in or around 2005 to kick off its longer-term project to exterminate humankind. Nuclear bombs, subsequent conventional warfare between humans and machines, and years of neglect have ruined the landscape. Most of the prewar human population has died, and survivors live in small, impoverished groups that spend most of their time evading Skynet’s killer machine patrols. The film is mostly set in the wreckage of Los Angeles, once one of the world’s most important cities, but now all but abandoned.

The character “John Connor” returns as a leading figure within the human resistance, though his comrades are divided over whether his claims about time travel are true. To some, he is almost a messianic figure who has direct knowledge of events going out to 2029, including Skynet’s inevitable defeat. To others, he is just a good battlefield commander who likes telling unprovable personal stories about time machines and friendly Terminators that visited him and his mother before the nuclear war. Rivalries over military strategy between Connor and a group of generals who are skeptical of him are an important plot element.

John Connor’s father, “Kyle Reese,” is also in the film, but due to the perplexities of time travel, he is younger that Connor in 2018 and has not had sex with the latter’s mother yet. A third key character, named “Marcus Wright,” is a man who wakes up on the outskirts of the L.A. ruins with only fragmentary memories of his own life, and no awareness of the ongoing human-machine war (the first time he sees an armed Terminator walking around, he calls for its help). Unsurprisingly, there’s more to him than meets the eye, and he becomes pivotal to determining the fate of the human resistance.

I thought Terminator Salvation was mediocre overall, and had an overly complicated plot and too many characters. Keeping track of who was a good guy, who was a bad guy, and why one person was threatening or shooting a gun at another was harder than it should have been. Several of the film’s events were also silly or implausible, which inadvertently broke with its otherwise bleak and humorless mood.

At the same time, I liked how Terminator Salvation moved beyond the played-out formula of the previous three films. While the characters mentioned the importance of time travel technology to the success of the human war effort, no one actually did any time traveling in the movie. There was no desperate race to prevent Skynet from starting a nuclear war because the war had already happened. This was also the first Terminator film set in the future, not the present, which let us see a new part of the Terminator franchise universe. The acting was also pretty good.

The potential for a good movie was there, but the filmmakers bogged Terminator Salvation down with too many bad elements. I don’t recommend wasting your time on it.

Analysis:

Machine soldiers will be bad shots. Towards the beginning of the film and again at the end, the humans encounter humanoid “T-600” combat robots, which are armed with miniguns. In both battles, the machines spew enormous volumes of fire (miniguns shoot 33 to 100 bullets per second) at the humans and miss every shot. This is a very inaccurate (pun intended) depiction, as combat robots have the potential to be better than the best human sharpshooters.

In fact, machines were put in charge of aiming larger weapons decades ago. “Fire control computers,” which consider all variables affecting the trajectory of projectiles (i.e. – distance, wind, elevation differences between gun and target, amount of propellant behind the projectile, air density, movement of the platform on which the gun itself it mounted), are used to aim naval guns, tank cannons, antiaircraft machine guns, and other projectile weapon systems. In those roles, they are vastly faster and better than humans.

In the next 20 years, fire control computers will get small enough and cheap enough to go into tactical scopes, and entire armies might be equipped with them as standard equipment. A soldier looking through such a scope would see the crosshair move, indicating where he had to point the gun to hit the target. For example, if the target were very far away, and the bullet’s drop during its flight needed to be compensated for, the crosshair would shift until it was above the target’s head. Smart scopes like these, paired with bullets that could steer themselves a little bit, will practically turn any infantryman into a sniper.

Human-sized combat robots would be even more accurate than that. Under the stress of battlefield conditions, human soldiers commonly make all kinds of mistakes and forget lessons from their training, including those relating to marksmanship. Machines would keep their cool and perform exactly as programmed, all the time. Moreover, simply being a human is a disadvantage, since the very act of breathing and even the tiny body movements caused by heartbeats can jostle a human shooter’s weapon enough to make the bullet miss. Machines would be rock-steady, and capable of very precise, controlled movements for aiming their guns.

Machines wouldn’t just be super-accurate shots, but super-fast shots. From the moment one of them spotted a target, it would be a matter of only three or four seconds–just as long as it takes to raise the gun and swing it in the right direction–before it fired a perfectly aimed shot. With quick, first-shot kills virtually guaranteed, machine soldiers will actually have LESS of a need for fully automatic weapons like the miniguns the Terminators used in the film.

It would have been more realistic if the T-600s had been armed with standard AR-15 rifles that they kept on semi-automatic mode almost all of the time, and if the film had shown them being capable of sniper-like accuracy with the weapons, even though the shots were being fired much faster than a human sniper could. The depiction would also have shown how well-aimed shots at humans safe behind cover (e.g. – good guy pokes his head around corner, and one second later, a bullet hits the wall one inch from his forehead) could be just as “suppressive” and demoralizing as large volumes of inaccurate, automatic gunfire from a machine gun.

So watch out. If your robot butler goes haywire someday, it will be able to do a lot of damage with Great-grandpa’s old M1 Garand you keep in your closet.

Hand-to-hand fights with killer robots will go on and on. There are two scenes where poor John Connor gets into hand-to-hand combat with Terminators. Both times, the fighting is drawn-out, and John survives multiple strikes, grabs and shoves from his machine opponents, allowing him to hit back or scramble away. This is totally unrealistic. A humanoid robot several times stronger than a grown man, made of metal, and unable to feel pain would be able to incapacitate or fatally wound any human with its first strike. The Terminators in the film could have simply grabbed any part of John Connor’s body and squeezed to break all the bones underneath in seconds, causing a grotesque and cripplingly painful injury.

That split-second where you can see it’s Christian Bale’s stuntman and not him.

The protracted, hand-to-hand fights in the film are typical Hollywood action choreography, and are the way they are because they are so dramatic and build tension. They’re also familiar since they resemble matches in professional fighting sports, like boxing, MMA and wrestling. However, we can’t make the mistake of assuming actual fights with robots in the future will be like either. Professional fights are held between people of similar sizes and skill levels, and are governed by many rules, including allowances for rest breaks. As such, it often takes long time for one fighter to prevail over the other, and the use of fighting techniques. A real-world fight between something like a Terminator and a human would feature a huge disparity in strength, fighting skill, and endurance that favored the machine, and would have no rules, allowing the machine to use brutal moves meant to cause maximum pain and incapacitation. It would look much more like a single suckerpunch knockout street fight than a professional boxing match.

Actual hand-to-hand combat with killer robots will almost always result in the human losing in seconds. Owing to their superior strength, pain insensitivity, and metal bodies that couldn’t be hurt by human punches or kicks, killer robots will not need to use complex fighting tactics (e.g. – dodges, blocks, multiple strikes) to win–one or two simple, swift moves like punching the human in the forehead hard enough to crack their skill, or jamming a rigid metal finger deep into the human’s eye, would be enough.

Terminator Salvation only depicts this accurately once, when a Terminator deliberately punches one of the characters on the left side of his chest, knowing the force of the impact will stop his heart. In the first Terminator movie, there was also a scene where the machine kills a man with a single punch that is so hard it penetrates his rib cage (the Terminator then pulls his hand out, still grasping the man’s now-severed heart), and in Terminator 2, the shapeshifting, evil Terminator kills a prison guard by shoving its sharpened finger through his eye and into his brain.

Some machines will be aquatic. A common type of combat robot in the movie is an eel-like machine with large, sharp jaws that it uses to bite humans to death. They live in bodies of water and surface to attack any humans who go in or near them. Though at first glance, this might seem unrealistic since electronics and water don’t mix, it actually isn’t. Machines can be waterproofed, and they can cool themselves off much better when immersed water than when surrounded by the air. (I explored this in my blog post “Is the ocean the ideal place for AI to live?”)

“Hydrobots” are eel-like killing machines that live in bodies of water.

One of the few things I liked about Terminator Salvation was its depiction of the diversity of machine types. Just as there are countless animal and plant species in the world, each suited in form for a unique function and ecological niches, there will be countless machine “species” with different types of bodies. The Matrix films also did a good job depicting this during some of the scenes set in the machine-ruled parts of the “Real World.”

A scene from The Matrix Revolutions, where Neo visits the enemy capitol city, and multitudes of machines of varying kinds are seen. They mostly resemble different species of invertebrates.

We should expect machines to someday live on nearly every part of the planet, such as oceans (both on the surface and below it), mountaintops, deserts, and perhaps even underground. Intelligent, technological evolution will shape their bodies in the same ways that unguided, natural evolution has shaped those of the planet’s countless animal species, and there could be certain environments where machines find it optimal to have eel-like bodies. Terminator Salvation’s hydrobots were thus realistic depictions of machines that could exist someday, though it won’t be until the next century before aquatic robots become as common in bodies of water as they were in the film.

Small robots will be used for mass surveillance. Another type of machine in the film is the “aerostat”–a flying surveillance drone about the same size and shape as a car tire. A single, swiveling rotor where its hubcap should be keeps it aloft. The aerostats have cameras, microphones, and possibly other sensors to monitor their surroundings. They seek out activity that might indicate a human presence, and transmit their findings to Skynet, which can deploy machines specialized for combat or human abduction to the locations. Aerostats seem to be unarmed.

An “aerostat” in flight

Flying surveillance drones about the size of aerostats have existed for years, so in that respect, the film is not showing anything new. What’s futuristic about the depiction is 1) the aerostats are autonomous, meaning they can decide to fly off to investigate potential signs of humans and report their findings after, and 2) they are so numerous that the humans live in fear of them and must take constant measures to hide from them. Something as innocuous as turning a radio on high volume for a few seconds will attract an aerostat’s attention.

Though they are unarmed and certainly not as intimidating as the other machines in the movie, the aerostats are surely no less important to Skynet’s war effort against the human race. Knowing where the enemy is, and in what numbers, is invaluable to any military commander. The aerostat surveillance network coupled with Skynet’s ability to rapidly deploy combat machines wherever humans were detected also put the latter at a major strategic disadvantage by hobbling them from aggregating into large groups.

Flying drones that look similar to real birds already exist. In a few decades, these and other drones that look like other animals will be much more real-looking and advanced.

Autonomous surveillance drones no bigger than aerostats will exist in large numbers by the middle of this century, and will have different forms. Some will be airborne while others will be terrestrial or aquatic. Many of them will be able to function by themselves in the field for days on end, and they will be able to hide from enemies through camouflage (perhaps by resembling animals) and evasion. The drones will give generals much better surveillance of battle spaces and even of the enemy’s home territory, and a soldier near the front lines who merely speaks loudly in his foxhole will risk being hit by a mortar in less than a minute, with his coordinates radioed in by a tiny surveillance drone camouflaged against a nearby tree trunk.

Criminals AND law enforcement will find uses for the drones, and, sadly, so will dictators. Mass drone surveillance networks will give the latter heightened abilities to monitor their citizens and punish disloyalty. It sounds crazy, but someday, you’ll look at a bird perched on a branch in your backyard and wonder if it’s a robot sent to spy on you.

People will be able to transplant their brains into robot bodies. SPOILER ALERT–one of the main characters is a man whose brain was transplanted into a robot body while he was in cryostasis. Because the body looks human on the outside and his memories of the surgery and the events leading up to it were wiped, he doesn’t realize what his true nature is. He only figures it out midway through the film, when he sustains injuries that blow away his fake skin to reveal the shiny metal endoskeleton underneath. He is as strong and as durable as a Terminator and can interface his mind with Skynet’s thanks to a computer chip implanted in his brain.

Transplanting a human brain into a robot body is theoretically possible, it would bring many advantages, and it will be done in the distant future. As the film character shows, robot bodies are stronger and more robust than natural flesh and bone bodies, and hence protect people from normally fatal injuries. This will get more important in the distant future because after we find cures for all major diseases and for the aging process, injuries caused by accidents, homicides and suicides will be the only ways to die. As such, transplanting your brain into a heavily armored robot body will be the next logical step towards immortality. Even better might be transplanting your brain into a heavily armored jar, locked in a thick-walled room, with your brain interacting with the world through remote-controlled robot bodies that would feel like the real thing to you.

When I think about a future where people can plug their brains in and out of different bodies, sooner or later I always visualize either “Krang” from “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles,” or “Mr. Potato Head.”

The ability to pick any body of your choice (e.g. – supermodel, bodybuilder, giant spider, dinosaur) will have profound implications for human self-identity, culture, and society, and will be liberating in ways we can’t imagine. Conceptually, bringing this about is a simple matter of connecting all the sensory neurons attached to your brain to microscopic “wires” that then connect to a computer, but the specifics of the required engineering will be very complicated. Additionally, your brain would need a life support system that provided it with nutrients and oxygen, extracted waste, kept it at the right temperature, and protected it from germs. The whole unit might be the size of a basketball, with the brain and the critical machinery on the inside. The exterior of the unit might have a few ports for plugging in data cables and plugging in hoses that delivered water, nutrients and blood, and drained waste. A person could switch bodies by pulling his brain unit out of his body and placing it into the standard-sized brain unit slot in a new body.

While this scenario is possible in theory, it will require major advances in many areas of science and technology to bring about, including nanotechnology, synthetic organs, prosthetics, and brain-computer interfaces. I don’t expect it to be reality until well into the 22nd century. By the same time, technology will also let us alter our memories and minds and to share thoughts with each other, and humans with all of the available enhancements will look at the humans of 2021 the same way you might look at a person with severe physical and mental disabilities today. The notion of being trapped in a single body that you didn’t even choose and have minimal ability to change will sound alien and stultifying.

Links:

  1. The T-600 Terminators used real weapons called “miniguns.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M134_Minigun
  2. The Mark I Fire Control Computer was the first machine the U.S. Navy used to aim the big guns of its warships. As technology has improved, smaller, cheaper, and better Fire Control Computers have been installed in other weapon systems, like tank cannons. Human-sized machines with these devices are a logical future phase in the progression of the technology.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_I_Fire_Control_Computer
  3. The video shows that a no-frills .22 LR rifle can consistently hit torso-sized targets at the remarkable distance of 500 yards if aimed perfectly. Machines will be able to aim perfectly, meaning they will be able to use regular guns much more effectively than humans, lessening the need for fully automatic gunfire.
    https://youtu.be/2dn-bqyMkfs
  4. The man who invented the “Gaia Hypothesis” believes machines will someday take over the planet, and fill all the ecological niches occupied by humans and contemporary animal species.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/cyborgs-will-replace-humans-remake-world-james-lovelock-says-ncna1041616

Interesting articles, May 2021

Israel’s “Iron Dome” system went into action during this month’s fighting with insurgents in Gaza. The remarkable photo above shows the cutting-edge Israel interceptor missiles at left, and the crude, vastly cheaper Palestinian rockets at right. It depicts the essence of “asymmetrical warfare.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-20385306

Israel has developed a putrid-smelling liquid called “skunk water,” which it sprays out of trucks to disperse Palestinian rioters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34227609

The U.S. experimented with a helicopter-carrying submarine. It didn’t work out.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40580/uss-sealion-was-the-navys-unique-helicopter-accomadating-submarine

Here are the world’s worst aircraft carriers.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/aircraft-carriers-didnt-make-it%E2%80%94and-how-they-influenced-ones-did-184495

The U.S. Army is adopting incredible new night vision goggles, named (in characteristically dry fashion) the Enhanced Night Vision Goggle-Binocular (ENVG-B). It uses ambient light amplification and thermal imaging to generate colorful, composite images that are much more detailed than the monochrome green images we’re used to.
https://gizmodo.com/the-armys-new-night-vision-goggles-look-like-technology-1846799718

One thing blocking laser weapons is their incredible inefficiency: using a laser to burn a cylinder-shaped hole through a human body requires literally 1,000 times more energy than shooting a bullet of the same diameter through them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXqOHk1LgD8

3D, moving holograms like those shown in many sci-fi films, are a long way off. The best we can manage are tiny holograms that are hazardous to use (note the scientists in the video wearing goggles to protect their eyes from the hologram’s laser projector).
https://youtu.be/N12i_FaHvOU

A machine just won the world’s premier crossword puzzle championship, meaning it is probably better than the best human.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56934716

“Clearly AI is going to win [against human intelligence]. It’s not even close.”
–Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prizewinner for psychology and behavioral economics

‘Before they outlive us by eons, our avatar might be a friend and a companion that really “gets us.” While they’re at our side, they’ll continually learn about us from us. They’ll be a sounding board on personal and professional matters and will always be prepared to fill in for us in a variety of situations as needed.

And that’s where things can get a little disturbing. Will our avatar be the idealized us or just more of the same? Will the avatar of a criminal also be a criminal? Will there be armies of avatars? Will we compete with our avatar for the love and attention of others? Will they become too much like us – with weak moments and ulterior motives? Can we program our avatar for good?’
https://futuristspeaker.com/artificial-intelligence/digital-ai-avatars-of-ourselves/

Is California ready for the “ArkStorm”?
‘A severe California winter storm could realistically flood thousands of square miles of urban and agricultural land, result in thousands of landslides, disrupt lifelines throughout the state for days or weeks, and cost on the order of $725 billion.’
https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/science-application-risk-reduction/science/arkstorm-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

Though it is in chilly northern England, fig trees suited for the Mediterranean grow on the Don river’s banks. Why? Because nearby factories divert the river water to cool their machines, then dump it back in, raising the Don’s overall temperature. This is a tiny example of the waste heat problem that could someday pose a serious threat to Earth.
https://ianswalkonthewildside.wordpress.com/2016/01/08/river-don-fig-forest/

We could use genetically engineered plants and fungi in the future to clean up wastes in the soil and to extract trace amounts of valuable minerals and elements.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomining

There are about 50 billion wild birds.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57150571

‘The intertwined story of these three characters—the sea slug E. rufescens, marine algae of the genus Bryopsis, and the newly identified bacteria—form a three-way symbiotic relationship. A symbiotic relationship is one in which several organisms closely interact. In this example, the slug gets food and defensive chemicals, the algae get chemicals, and the bacteria get a home and free meals for life in the form of nutrients from their algae host.’
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-sea-slugs-algae-bacterial-weapons.html

“Somewhere around 5 to 20% of our genomic DNA appears to be detritus from ancient retroviruses.”
Have our bodies repurposed this genetic material to serve useful functions, or it is all “dead weight” that saps energy from our cells? Would people who deleted all their useless DNA have genomes that were so much shorter they wouldn’t count as Homo sapiens anymore, even though they were identical to regular humans at the macro-level?
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/10/integration-into-the-human-genome

‘From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg’s nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg’s nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins.’
https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet

After 26 years of FDA safety approval delays, genetically engineered salmon can now be sold to people in the U.S.
https://reason.com/2021/05/14/after-26-years-of-fda-delays-u-s-consumers-can-finally-buy-genetically-enhanced-aquabounty-salmon/

The is a VR headset that lets you see the world through the eyes of someone high on magic mushrooms.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-16316-2

Here’s a flashback to the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show featuring a groundbreaking 55 inch OLED TV. They’re now becoming common.
https://youtu.be/sa87ZQtj3ag

Another of my future predictions (first made in 2019) is getting close to coming true. My prediction:
‘[During the 2030s], movie subtitles and the very notion of there being “foreign language films” will become obsolete. Computers will be able to perfectly translate any human language into another, to create perfect digital imitations of any human voice, and to automatically apply CGI so that the mouth movements of people in video footage matches the translated words they’re speaking.’
The article says a British company called “Flawless” is using deepfake technology to do what I predicted. The sample footage is “fair” quality, and the CGI mouth movements don’t look totally real, but of course it will improve with time.
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-makes-de-niro-perform-lines-flawless-german/

Wikipedia’s “List of emerging technologies” is an interesting read.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emerging_technologies

Electric engines are much lighter than equivalent gas-powered engines, but electric cars are much heavier because they need huge batteries. If the energy-density of batteries improved by about 40%, which could happen, then the vehicles would weigh the same.
https://www.quora.com/How-much-would-an-average-electric-car-weigh-as-opposed-to-a-comparable-gasoline-powered-car

‘Instead of trying to max out every cubic meter of the hall, [the Takaoka II car factory] more or less ignores the 3rd dimension. Everything happens on one flat plane. There are no overhead gantries, and because nothing happens above, there are no height restrictions for the cars made on the shop floor. There is a lot of those two dimensions in the back of the giant, but simple hall Takaoka II occupies: Half of its space sits empty, breathing space for the flexible lines. The super-flexible “Takaoka II could theoretically build any number of models on the same line,” tells me Akahane, “but it probably would stop making sense at six.”’
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/26955/inside-toyotas-takaoka-2-line-the-most-flexible-line-in-the-world

‘The Heavy Press Program was a Cold War-era program of the United States Air Force to build the largest forging presses and extrusion presses in the world. These machines greatly enhanced the US defense industry’s capacity to forge large complex components out of light alloys, such as magnesium and aluminium.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program

‘But TSMC’s vice president of corporate research, Dr. Philip Wong, was keen to point out that after introducing his company’s latest node, despite a history of the node naming scheme actually having some relevance to the silicon features etched into the wafer, the node names are now effectively meaningless. So, while we might like to think that the N7, N5, and N3 names it’s using for its 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm nodes relate to the gate length of transistors, they’re effectively just brand names.’
https://www.pcgamesn.com/amd/tsmc-7nm-5nm-and-3nm-are-just-numbers

The DC police department and a major U.S. oil pipeline were hacked and the stolen data ransomed.
https://apnews.com/article/police-technology-government-and-politics-53e54780aa080decbb78d5b88d4ff44b
https://apnews.com/article/europe-government-and-politics-technology-business-938b33938fe3a750367fb1dc2f7ce6e0

This video explains why the oil pipeline hack was so disruptive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBPud5PyySk

Interesting, though this is obviously a more expensive way to make objects. You might be able to make five standard, mass-produced, sub-optimal chairs for the same cost (in terms of money and time) as one customized, optimized chair. Spare parts availability is another problem.
https://futurism.com/generative-design-could-radically-transform-the-look-of-our-world

A second fighter pilot who saw the UFO during the 2004 USS Nimitz incident has come forward, and confirmed the first pilot’s public account.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBtMbBPzqHY

Reports have emerged of another encounter between the U.S. military and UFOs. This one happened in July 2019, and involved strange aircraft flying near U.S. warships during training missions. The aircraft were detected on radar, and by thermal sensors and night vision cameras.
https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1398262582599815172
https://www.mysterywire.com/ufo/uss-omaha-ufo-video/

Some of the recent UFO sightings by U.S. military people might have been of Russian and Chinese unmanned spy drones that were purposefully made to look weird. The two countries are aware of the U.S. government’s strong aversion to ever talking about or even investigating possible alien spacecraft sightings, so they built expendable spy balloons and spy drones that look strange and have weird radar and thermal signatures, and have been launching them off the East and West coasts to surveil our military forces during routine exercises.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40054/adversary-drones-are-spying-on-the-u-s-and-the-pentagon-acts-like-theyre-ufos

Here are some very exotic notions of what aliens might be like. Machine aliens and aliens that use DNA that is chemically different from ours are the tamer hypotheses.
https://listverse.com/2015/07/17/10-hypothetical-forms-of-life/

It might be possible to “blow up” Jupiter by detonating a nuclear weapon in the layer of its atmosphere that is rich in deuterium. The resulting explosion would release thousands of times more energy than the Sun, obliterating whichever side of the Earth was facing the planet at that moment.
https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/34573/what-would-be-the-characteristics-of-jupiter-if-it-shrank

The first human went into space 60 years ago.
https://apnews.com/article/spacex-lifestyle-travel-apollo-11-moon-landing-business-cbe5e6b34422af6a80ae92fe084981be

SpaceX’s new, reusable “Starship” rocket made its first successful test flight. It could be used to send astronauts back to the Moon and possibly to Mars.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57004604

Virgin Galactic’s “Unity” space plane made a successful test flight, reaching an altitude of 55 miles. For comparison, passenger planes typically fly at 5 or 6 miles, and the International Space Station orbits at an altitude of 254 miles. Unity could start ferrying tourists to the edge of space as early as next year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57214988

China landed its first rover on Mars, becoming only the second country to do so.
https://apnews.com/article/china-technology-business-science-e1c1d0679aa78a8cc79c04a4d1375322

The threat of Earth being encircled by “space junk” that prevents us from going into space anymore is exaggerated and ultimately a solvable problem. Most of the debris in orbit falls back to Earth in a matter of decades.
https://www.nasa.gov/news/debris_faq.html

“Energy is limited here. In at least a few hundred years … all of our heavy industry will be moved off-planet,” Bezos added.
https://www.vox.com/2016/6/1/11826514/jeff-bezos-space-save-earth

Using a giant solar panel floating in space, we could capture enough energy from the Sun in a year to manufacture a tiny black hole. Its Hawking Radiation emissions could then be harnessed to power a space ship. The artificial black hole would have a diameter measured in quintillionths of a meters. The smallest known naturally occurring black hole, by contrast, is ten miles wide. The hypothetical, manmade black hole would still have a mass of 1 – 6 million tons. A fully loaded U.S. aircraft carrier weighs about 100,000 tons.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0908.1803.pdf

We’d save a lot of money if we spread out of electricity consumption more evenly over each day. The big spikes in demand each morning and evening when people wake up and get home from work, respectively, as well as surges caused by unexpected events at other times, strain the electric grid and force it to use expensive energy sources in those circumstances. “Virtual batteries” could be part of the solution.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oke45rH4QgU

Worldwide, 463 million people age 25-64 have diabetes. If people 65+ are included, then the number could easily exceed half a billion. The vast majority of the afflicted have Type 2 diabetes, which is a preventable disorder that only arises after many years of poor lifestyle choices (overeating, bad diet, lack of exercise).
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhl/article/PIIS2666-7568(21)00089-1/fulltext

Yes, it’s possible to work so hard that you give yourself a heart attack. Or a stroke.
This probably explains part of why men die sooner, as they are much likelier to work extreme amounts (55+ hours a week).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021002208

The FDA just approved the first brain-computer interface medical device, meant to help stoke victims recover use of their paralyzed hands.
https://newatlas.com/medical/first-fda-approved-brain-computer-interface-ipsihand-stroke/

Joe Biden wants to waive patent protections on the new COVID-19 vaccines so factories in other countries can make them without paying royalties. It’s a bad idea.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/06/waiving-ip

The September prediction from the WHO was right: “We are really not expecting to see widespread vaccination until the middle of next year.”
Only in the last week did the U.S. vaccinate the first half of its population against COVID-19. Some poorer countries have only vaccinated 1% of their people so far.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-widespread-coronavirus-vaccination-mid-.html

Bill Gates predicts the COVID-19 pandemic will be over by the end of 2022.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-billgates-idUSKBN2BH0SX

From January: “And, very sadly, if you do the math, we could be looking at 800,000 to 1 million dead Americans by the beginning of May.”
Actual U.S. COVID-19 death toll as of May 4: 574,000
https://www.advocate.com/commentary/2021/1/18/how-bad-will-covid-19-get

And this prediction from the fine minds at J.P Morgan was also wrong.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-could-be-effectively-over-by-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

COVID-19 is pounding India. They can’t dispose of the dead bodies fast enough.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56897970

COVID-19 has killed between 7 and 13 million people worldwide.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-been-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic

Calls are growing to investigate whether COVID-19 was manmade.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/27/china-lab-wuhan-coronavirus-covid-biden/

The Kurzweil predictions that don’t matter

Time for…another Ray Kurzweil analysis. It’s funny how I keep swearing to myself I won’t write another one about him, but end up doing so anyway. I’m sorry. For sure, there won’t be anything more about him until next year or later.

In my last blog post, “Will Kurzweil’s 2019 be our 2029?”, I mentioned that several of his predictions for 2019 were wrong, and would probably still be wrong in 2029, but that it didn’t matter since they pertained to inconsequential things. Rather than leave all two of you who read my blog hanging in suspense, I’d like to go over those and explain my thoughts. As before, these predictions are taken from Kurzweil’s 1998 book The Age of Spiritual Machines.

The augmented reality / virtual reality glasses will work by projecting images onto the retinas of the people wearing them.

To be clear, by 2030, standalone AR and VR eyewear will have the levels of capability Kurzweil envisioned for 2019. However, it’s unknowable whether retinal projection will be the dominant technology they will use to show images to the people wearing them. Other technologies like lenses made of transparent LCD screens, or beamed images onto semitransparent lenses, could end up dominant. Whichever gains the most traction by 2030 is irrelevant to the consumer–they will only care about how smooth and convincing the digital images displays in front of them look.

“Keyboards are rare, although they still exist. Most interaction with computing is through gestures using hands, fingers, and facial expressions and through two-way natural-language spoken communication.”

The first sentence was wrong in 2019 and still will be in 2029. As old-fashioned as they may be, keyboards have many advantages over other modes of interacting with computers:

  • Keyboards are physically large and have big buttons, meaning you’re less likely to push the wrong one than you are on a tiny smartphone keyboard.
  • They have many keys corresponding not only to letters and numbers, but to functions, meaning you can easily use a basic keyboard to input a vast range of text and commands into a computer. Imagine how inefficient it would be to input a long URL into a browser toolbar or to write computer code if you had to open all kinds of side menus on your input device to find and select every written symbol, including colons, semicolons, and dollar symbols. Worse, imagine doing that using “hand gestures” and “facial expressions.”
  • Keyboards are also very ergonomic to use and require nothing more than tiny finger movements and flexions of the wrists. By contrast, inputting characters and commands into your computer through some combination of body movements, gestures and facial expressions that it would see would take you much more time and physical energy (compare the amount of energy it takes you to push the “A” button on your keyboard with how much it takes to raise both of your arms up and link your hands over your head with your elbows bent to turn your body into something resembling an “A” shape). And you’d have to go to extra trouble to make sure the device’s camera had a full view of your body and that you were properly lit. This is why something like the gestural interface Tom Cruise used in Minority Report will never become common.

Furthermore, two-way voice communication with computers has its place, but won’t replace keyboards. First, talking with machines sacrifices your privacy and annoys the people within earshot of you. Imagine a world where keyboards are banned and people must issue voice commands to their computers when searching for pornography, and where workers in open-concept offices have to dictate all their emails. Second, verbal communication works poorly in noisy environments since you and your machine have problems understanding each other. It’s simply not a substitute for using keyboards.

Even verbal communication plus gestures, facial expressions, and anything else won’t be enough to render keyboards obsolete. If you want to get any kind of serious work done, you need one.

This will still hold true in 2029, and keyboards will not be “rare” then, or even in 2079. Kurzweil will still be wrong. But so what? The keyboard won’t be “blocking” any other technology, and given its advantages over other modes of data and command input, its continued use is unavoidable and necessary.

Let me conclude this section by saying I can only imagine keyboards becoming obsolete in exotic future scenarios. For example, in a space ship crewed entirely by robots, keyboards, mice, and even display screens might be absent since the robots and the ship would be able to directly communicate through electronic signals. If the captain wanted to turn left, it would think the command, and the ship’s sensors would receive it and respond. And in his mind’s eye, the captain would see live footage from external ship cameras.

“Cables have largely disappeared.”

As I wrote in the analysis, it will still be common for control devices and peripheral devices to have data cables in 2029 due to better information security and slightly lower costs. Moreover, in many cases there will be no functional disadvantage to having corded devices, as they never need to leave the vicinity of whatever they are connected to. Consider, if you have a PC at your work desk, why would you ever need to move your keyboard to anyplace other than the desk’s surface? To use your computer, you need to be close to it and the monitor, which means the keyboard has to stay close to them as well. In such a case, a keyboard with a standard, 5 foot long cord would serve you just as well as a wireless keyboard that could connect to your PC from a mile away.

“Of the total computing capacity of the human species (that is, all human brains), combined with the computing technology the species has created, more than 10 percent is nonhuman.”

This was badly wrong in 2019, and in 2029, the “nonhuman” portion of all computation on Earth will probably be no higher than 1%, so it will still be wrong. But so what? Comparisons of how much raw thinking humans and machines do are misleading since they are “apples to oranges,” and they provide almost no useful insights into the overall state of computer technology or automation.

When it comes to computation, quantity does not equal quality. Consider this example: I estimated that, in 2019, all the world’s computing devices combined did a total of 3.5794 x 1021 flops of computation. Now, if someone invented an AGI that was running on a supercomputer that was, say, ten times as powerful as a human brain, the AGI would be capable of 200 petaflops, or 2.0 x 1017 flops. Looking at the raw figures for global computation, it would seem like the addition of that AI changed nothing: the one supercomputer it was running on wouldn’t even make the global computation count of 3.5794 x 1021 flops increase by one significant digit! However, anyone who has done the slightest thinking about AI’s consequences knows that one machine would be revolutionary, able to divide its attention in many directions at once, and would have inaugurated a new era of much faster economic, scientific, and technological growth that would have been felt by people across the world.

“Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices.”

Rotating computer memories–also called “hard disk drives” (HDD)–were still common in 2019, and will still be in 2029, though less so. This is because HDDs have important advantages over their main competitor, solid-state drives (SSDs), often called “flash drives,” and those advantages will not disappear over this decade.

HDDs are cheaper on a per-bit basis and are less likely to suffer data corruption or data loss. SSDs, on the other hand, are more physically robust since they lack moving parts, and allow much faster access to the data stored in them since they don’t contain disks that have to “spin up.” Given the tradeoffs, in 2029, HDDs will still be widely used in data centers and electronic archive facilities, where they will store important data which needs to be preserved for long periods, but which isn’t so crucial that users need instantaneous access to it. Small consumer electronic devices, including smartphones, smart watches, and other wearables, will continue to exclusively have SSD memory, and finding newly manufactured laptops with anything but SSDs might be impossible. Only a small fraction of desktop computers will have HDDs by then.

So rotating memories will still be around in 2029, meaning the prediction will still be wrong since it contains the absolute term “fully replaced.” But again, so what? All of the data that average people need to see on a day-to-day basis will be stored on SSDs, ensuring they will have instantaneous access to it. The cost of HDD and SSD memory will have continued its long-running, exponential improvement, making both trivially cheap by 2029 (it was already so cheap in 2019 that even poor people could buy enough to meet all their reasonable personal needs). The HDDs that still exist will be out of sight, either in server farms or in big, immobile boxes that are on or under peoples’ work desks. The failure of the prediction will have no noticeable impact, and if you could teleport to a parallel universe where HDDs didn’t exist anymore, nothing about day-to-day life would seem more futuristic.

“A new computer-controlled optical-imaging technology using quantum-based diffraction devices has replaced most lenses with tiny devices that can detect light waves from any angle. These pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.”

The cameras that make use of quantum effects and reflected light never got good enough to exit the lab, and it’s an open question whether they will be commercialized by 2029. I doubt it, but don’t see why it should matter. Billions of cameras–most of them tiny enough to fit on smartphones–already are practically everywhere and will be even more ubiquitous in 2029. It’s not relevant whether they make use of exotic principles to capture video and still images or whether they use through conventional methods involving the capture of visible light. The important aspects of the prediction–that cameras will be very small and all over the place–was right in 2019 and will be even more right in 2029.

“People read documents either on the hand-held displays or, more commonly, from text that is projected into the ever present virtual environment using the ubiquitous direct-eye displays. Paper books and documents are rarely used or accessed.”

This prediction was technologically possible in 2019, but didn’t come to pass because many people showed a (perhaps unpredictable) preference for paper books and documents. It turns out there’s something appealing about the tactile experience of leafing through books and magazines and being able to carry them around that PDFs and tablet computers can’t duplicate. Personal computing devices had to become widely available before we could realize old fashioned books and sheets of paper had some advantages.

Come 2029, paper books, magazines, journals, newspapers, memos, and letters will still be commonly encountered in everyday life, so the prediction will still be wrong. Fortunately, the persistence of paper isn’t a significant stumbling block in any way since all important paper documents from the pre-computer era have been scanned and are available over the internet for free or at low cost, and all important new written documents originate in electronic format.

For what it’s worth, I’ve predicted that, in the 2030s, books and computer tablets will merge into a single type of device that could be thought of as a “digital book.” It will be a book with several hundred pages made of thin, flexible digital displays (perhaps using ultra-energy efficient e-ink) instead of paper. At the tap of a button, the text on all of the pages will instantly change to display whichever book the user wanted to read at that moment. They could also be used as notebooks in which the user could hand write or draw things with a stylus, which would be saved as image or text files. The devices will fuse the tactile appeal of old-fashioned books with the content flexibility of tablet computers.

“Three-dimensional holography displays have also emerged. In either case, users feel as if they are physically near the other person. The resolution equals or exceeds optimal human visual acuity. Thus a person can be fooled as to whether or not another person is physically present or is being projected through electronic communication.”

3D volumetric displays didn’t advance nearly as fast as Kuzweil predicted, so this was wrong in 2019, and the technology doesn’t look poised for a breakthrough, so it will still be wrong in 2029. However, it doesn’t matter since VR goggles and probably AR glasses as well will let people have the same holographic experiences. By 2029, you will be able to put on eyewear that displays lifelike, moving images of other people, giving the false impression they are around you. Among other things, this technology will be used for video calls.

“The all-enveloping tactile environment is now widely available and fully convincing. Its resolution equals or exceeds that of human touch and can simulate (and stimulate) all the facets of the tactile sense, including the senses of pressure, temperature, textures, and moistness…the ‘total touch’ haptic environment requires entering a virtual reality booth.”

The haptic/kinetic/touch aspect of virtual reality is very underdeveloped compared to its audio and visual aspects, and will still lag far behind in 2029, but little will be lost thanks to this. After all, if you’re playing a VR game, do you want to be able to feel bullets hitting you, or to feel the extreme temperatures of whatever exotic virtual environment you’re in? Even if we had skintight catsuits that could replicate physical sensations accurately, would we want to wear them? Slipping on a VR headset that covers your eyes and ears is fast and easy–and will become even more so as the devices miniaturize thanks to better technology–but taking off all your clothes to put on a VR catsuit is much more trouble.

A VR headset is made of smooth metal and high-impact plastic, making it easy to clean with a damp a rag. By contrast, a catsuit made of stretchy material and studded with hard servos, sensors and other little machines would soak up sweat, dirt and odors, and couldn’t be thrown in the washing machine or dryer like a regular garment since its parts would get damaged if banged around inside. It’s impractical.

“These technologies are popular for medical examinations, as well as sensual and sexual interactions…”

I doubt that VR body suits and VR “booths” will be able to satisfactorily replicate anything but a narrow range of sex acts. Given the extreme importance of tactile stimulation, the setup would have to include a more expensive catsuit. There would also need to be devices for the genitals, adding more costs, and possibly other contraptions to apply various types of physical force (thrust, pull, resistance, etc.) to the user. Cleanup would be even more of a hassle. [Shakes head]

The fundamental limits to this technology are such that I don’t think it will ever become “popular” since VR sex will fall so far short of the real thing. That said, I believe another technology, androids, will be able to someday “do it” as well as humans. Once they can, androids will become some of the most popular consumer devices of all time, with major repercussions for dating, marriage, gender relations, and laws relating to sex and prostitution. They would let any person, regardless of social status, looks, or personality, to have unlimited amounts of “sex,” which is unheard of in human history. Just don’t expect it until near the end of this century!

“The vast majority of transactions include a simulated person, featuring a realistic animated personality and two-way voice communication with high-quality natural-language understanding.”

As with replacing all books with PDFs on computer displays, there was no technological barrier to this in 2019, but it didn’t happen because most transactions remained face-to-face, and because people preferred online transactions involving simple button-clicks rather than drawn-out conversations with fake human salesmen. The consumer preferences were not clear when the prediction was made in 1998.

By 2029, the prediction will still be wrong, though it won’t matter, since buying things by simply clicking on buttons and typing a few characters is faster and much less aggravating than doing the same transactions through a “simulated person.” Anyone who has dealt with a robot operator on the phone that laboriously enunciates menu options and obtusely talks over you when you are responding will agree. It would be a step backwards if that technology became more widespread by 2029.

“Automated driving systems have been found to be highly reliable and have now been installed in nearly all roads. While humans are still allowed to drive on local roads (although not on highways), the automated driving systems are always engaged and are ready to take control when necessary to prevent accidents.”

Sensors and transmitters that could guide cars were never installed along roadways, but it didn’t turn out to be a problem since we found that cars could use GPS and their own onboard sensors to navigate just as well. So the prediction was wrong, and the expensive roadside networks will still not exist in 2029, but it won’t matter.

The second part of the prediction will be half right by 2029, and it’s failure to be 100% right will be consequential. By then, autonomous cars will be statistically safer than the average human driver and will be in the “human range” of “efficiency,” albeit towards the bottom of the range: they will still be overly cautious, slowing down and even stopping whenever they detect slightly dangerous conditions (e.g. – erratic human driver nearby, pedestrian who looks like they might be about to cross the road illegally, heavy rain, dead leaves blowing across the road surface). In short, they’ll drive like old ladies, which will be annoying at times.

While the technology will be cheaper and more widely accepted, it will still be a luxury feature in 2029 that only a minority of cars in rich countries have. At best, a token number of public roads worldwide will ban human-driven vehicles. Enormous numbers of lives will be lost in accidents, and billions of dollars wasted in traffic jams each year thanks to autonomous car technology not advancing as fast as Kurzweil predicted.

“The type of artistic and entertainment product in greatest demand (as measured by revenue generated) continues to be virtual-experience software, which ranges from simulations of ‘real’ experiences to abstract environments with little or no corollary in the physical world.”

In 2019, the sports industry had the highest revenues in the entertainment sector, totaling $480 – $620 billion. That year, the VR gaming industry generated a paltry $1.2 billion in revenue, so the prediction was badly wrong for 2019. And even if the latter grows twentyfold over this decade, which I think is plausible, it won’t come close to challenging the dominance of sports.

That said, looking at revenues is kind of arbitrary. The spirit of the prediction, which is that VR gaming will become a very popular and common means of entertainment, will be right by 2029 in rich countries, and it will only get more widespread with time.

“Computerized health monitors built into watches, jewelry, and clothing which diagnose both acute and chronic health conditions are widely used. In addition to diagnosis, these monitors provide a range of remedial recommendations and interventions.”

The devices are already built into some smartwatches, and will be “widely used” by any reasonable metric by 2029. I don’t think they will be shrunk to the sizes of jewelry like rings and earrings, but that won’t have any real consequences since the watches will be available. No one in 2029 will say “I’m really concerned about my heart problem and want to buy a wearable monitoring device, but my health is not so important that I would want to trouble myself with a watch. However, I’d be OK with a ring.”

Health monitoring devices won’t be built into articles of clothing for the same reasons that other types of computers won’t be built into them: 1) laundering and drying the clothes would be a hassle since water, heat and being banged around would damage their electronic parts and 2) you’d have to remember to always wear your one shirt with the heartbeat monitor sewn into it, regardless of how appropriate it was for the occasion and weather, or how dirty it was from wearing it day after day. It makes much more sense to consolidate all your computing needs into one or two devices that are fully portable and easy to keep clean, like a smartphone and smartwatch, which is why we’ve done that.

Links:

  1. Rotating computer memories (HDDs) are cheaper and more reliable than solid-state memories (SSDs). Those advantages are unlikely to disappear, meaning HDDs will still be around in 2029.
    https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Spinning-disk-hard-drives-Good-value-for-many-use-cases
  2. Even old-fashioned computer tapes will still be around in 2029, as they’re even better-suited for long-term data storage (called “cold storage”).
    https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/12/15/magnetic-tape-has-a-surprisingly-promising-future