Interesting articles, November 2021

During WWII, the ever-frugal and innovative Germans built tanks out of spare parts they captured from other armies. They found ways to wring utility out of obsolete equipment, both foreign- and domestically made. The “Marder” armored vehicles were outstanding examples of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyVyFGLX1TY

Henry Kissinger: “I don’t expect an all-out attack on Taiwan in, say, a 10-year period, which is as far as I can see.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/21/kissinger-china-taiwan-summit-biden-523139

‘Mooring retired Ticonderoga class cruisers around Guam could offer an efficient way to greatly expand the island’s missile defense umbrella.’
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41819/decommissioned-navy-cruisers-could-be-the-answer-to-guams-missile-defense-needs

A confrontation between U.S. Navy warships and Iranian gunboats in the Gulf of Oman came frighteningly close to disaster.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42987/video-shows-u-s-destroyers-very-intimate-standoff-with-iranian-vessels-over-seized-oil-tanker

This video shows the differences between how high explosive squash-head (HESH) and high explosive anti-tank (HEAT) weapons work. Note that HESH rounds work well when they flatten out against the surface of a tank before exploding, like a spherical glob of mud falling onto a hard floor and splattering into a pancake. Conversely, HEAT rounds work best when they explode at the instant they touch the surface of a tank, like a round, porcelain piggy bank being dropped and shattering just as it hits the ground.
https://youtu.be/Uhz3w8-PSl8

There are such things as bullets that explode on impact. They’re meant to penetrate heavy metal/ceramic body armor and light vehicle armor.
https://youtu.be/5Dqg5k_kdPw

The first patent for a percussion-cap musket was patented in England in 1807. Sportsmen there and in America soon discovered they were more reliable than their flintlock muskets, and adopted them in significant numbers. However, it wasn’t until 1834 that the British Army considered the new weapons for use. The tests showed that the percussion cap muskets were 26 times more reliable, and the British quickly adopted the new guns. Like Mikhail Kalashnikov 100 years later, the inventor of the revolutionary new weapon, Alexander Forsythe, received no compensation.
https://weaponsandwarfare.com/british-army-1820-45/

Bullets should always be made of softer metal than the gun barrels they are shot out of. If the bullets are harder, then they will ruin the barrel’s rifling, or even get jammed in the middle of the barrel after being fired, possibly causing the gun to explode.
https://www.quora.com/Would-a-solid-tungsten-carbide-bullet-ruin-the-weapons-rifling-because-of-the-hardness-of-tungsten

Someone tried to kill Iraq’s prime minister by flying an explosive-laden drone into his house and detonating it. Recall my prediction that, before 2030, “Drones will be used in an attempted or successful assassination of at least one major world leader.” This man wasn’t high-profile enough to satisfy my prediction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-59195399

The U.S. military’s experimental “Gremlin” drones, which un-dock in midair from larger “mothership” planes, perform missions, and then fly back to the motherships and dock with them, are getting more refined.
https://youtu.be/H4T6Vr4a1hY

In the first attack of its kind, a quadcopter drone was used in an attempt to disable a power station in the U.S. It failed, and the police found the drone. The person or people responsible were careful to remove identifying information from the machine, and remain unknown. In the future, drones and narrow AI will untether each country’s military strength from the size of its human population.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43015/likely-drone-attack-on-u-s-power-grid-revealed-in-new-intelligence-report

AI scientist Stuart Russell foresees a day when a truck full of “a million” killer drones could drive into a city, release its load, and kill all the human inhabitants.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/oct/29/yeah-were-spooked-ai-starting-to-have-big-real-world-impact-says-expert

The failed WWII “Bat Bomb” will turn out to have been an idea ahead of its time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_bomb

“Nitinol” is a remarkable alloy, and objects made from it “remember” their original shapes and revert to them, even after being bent or stretched into something else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI-qAxKJoSU

Before 1856, it was really rare to see purple-colored objects because purple dye was very expensive to make (snails had to be collected and boiled). But that year, a German chemist discovered a way to synthesize it from coal tar at very low cost. Almost overnight, every snail-boiling business went bankrupt, and by 1859, a fashion fad of wearing purple clothes swept the U.S. and Western Europe. It’s a perfect example of how technology brings things that were once the exclusive domain of the rich to everyone else.

The process will not stop. Consider that autonomous cars will make poor people like rich men with chauffeurs, in vitro synthesis of meat will make the finest caviars and steaks as cheap as SPAM, and virtual reality will give everyone access to whatever fantastic worlds they desire.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/in-ancient-rome-purple-dye-was-made-from-snails-1239931/

There is actually an upper limit to how loud sounds can be.
“For a sound of 194 decibels, the trough of the fluctuation would just touch zero, which is the vacuum pressure. It can’t go any lower than that, so a sustained sound greater than 194 decibels is not possible.”
https://www.quora.com/How-do-we-know-that-194-decibels-is-the-loudest-sound-possible

This website catalogs all the futuristic technologies mention in science fiction books, along with the years when they are supposed to be (or were supposed to have been) real.
http://technovelgy.com/

Sand behaves like a liquid when injected with compressed air.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=My4RA5I0FKs

This elegantly simple video shows how an ammeter measures the amount of electric current flowing through a circuit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DanoG-nowk

Dow 36,000 is a reality…16 years after James Glassman and Kevin Hassett predicted it would be. Do they deserve credit for getting the prediction right?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/03/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

After a few hours of practice, machines can learn to play Atari video games much better than average humans.
http://arxiv.org/abs/2111.00210

“GauGAN2 uses a deep learning model that turns a simple written phrase, or sentence, into a photorealistic masterpiece.”
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2021/11/22/gaugan2-ai-art-demo/

Economist Tyler Cowen predicts that greater use of telework will expose most American jobs having to do with computer coding and IT to cheaper foreign competition (“teleshock”). Many formerly secure and well-paying jobs will vanish. Conversely, some types of culture-specific and location-dependent jobs will remain secure.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/11/the-teleshock.html

Automated cranes that load and unload cargo from ships greatly increase the efficiency of ports. Unfortunately, the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that was just passed in the U.S. provides no money for such upgrades, presumably because unions afraid of losing jobs successfully lobbied the bill’s authors to exclude it.
https://reason.com/2021/11/09/americas-ports-need-more-robots-but-the-1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-wont-fund-port-automation/

Major volcanic eruptions and the concomitant reductions in agricultural output caused, or helped to cause, the collapses of several Chinese empires.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00284-7

Coal and crude oil can be turned into an edible, fat-rich substance similar to margarine. This study examines the feasibility of feeding the population with it during a global calamity that blocks out the sun for several years (ex – nuclear winter, megavolcano eruption, asteroid strike).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0263876221004275

A Russian town on the Arctic Ocean is now getting heat from a barge with a nuclear reactor in it.
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/climate-change/a-nuclear-powered-shower-russia-tests-a-climate-innovation-7608185/

What would change if clean energy prices were super low? Among other things, we would start terraforming the deserts.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/11/what-would-a-world-with-very-cheap-energy-look-like.html

This awesome illustration shows different fusion reactor designs that have been proposed.

“SpinLaunch” is a giant centrifuge designed to hurl satellites into space. I wonder how much it would help to build such a machine on the summit of a tall mountain.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43079/space-launch-start-up-just-used-a-giant-centrifuge-to-hurl-a-projectile-into-the-upper-atmosphere

NASA had further plans for the Apollo Program and the Saturn V rockets, including the construction of a Moon base, and a manned Venus flyby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4CTI5GDz98

Thanks to a small computer chip implanted in his brain, a partially paralyzed man was able to use his thoughts to “[achieve] typing speeds of 90 characters per minute with 94.1% raw accuracy online, and greater than 99% accuracy offline with a general-purpose autocorrect.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03506-2

People can make themselves taller by getting surgery where the legs are broken, the two halves are pulled apart a tiny amount, and then the body is allowed to heal by slowly filling in the gap with new bone. A woman with dwarfism underwent the procedures several times over four, agonizing years, to increase her height from 3′ 9″ to 4′ 11″. She even did it to her arms to keep them proportionate with her elongating body.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16645445/underwent-years-agonising-surgery-stretch-my-bone/

The first drug to treat dwarfism has been FDA approved. It has to be injected every day, each daily dose costs $900, and it adds 1/2 inch of height per year of use.
https://medcitynews.com/2021/11/biomarin-pharma-sees-big-things-for-first-fda-approved-dwarfism-drug/

More accurate methods of screening human embryos for fatal genetic defects have raised IVF success rates.
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/11/preimplantation-genetic-testing-for.html

Surprisingly, having low levels of cholesterol can also kill you.
“[There] is a U-shaped relationship between LDL-C level and all-cause mortality.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-01738-w

Variations of AlphaFold are now simulating protein-protein interactions with high levels of accuracy.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/protein-complex-structure-predictions-already

In Britain, mass vaccination of girls and young women with the HPV vaccine has caused an 87% drop in cervical cancer cases since 2008.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59148620

This article is over a year old. Not bad: ‘This is the end of the coronavirus pandemic. And this is how it could happen in the United States: By November 2021, most Americans have received two doses of a vaccine that, while not gloriously effective, fights the disease in more cases than not. Meanwhile, Americans continue to wear masks and avoid large gatherings, and the Covid-19 numbers drop steadily after a series of surges earlier in the year. Eventually, as more and more Americans develop immunity through exposure and vaccination, and as treatments become more effective, Covid-19 recedes into the swarm of ordinary illnesses Americans get every winter.’
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/how-covid-19-pandemic-ends-421122

Large numbers of deer in the U.S. are testing positive for COVID-19, meaning they (perhaps along with other mammals) will serve as a reservoir for the virus, and will periodically infect humans for the foreseeable future. COVID-19 will become endemic.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1054224204/how-sars-cov-2-in-american-deer-could-alter-the-course-of-the-global-pandemic

A new drug that sharply lowers the odds of dying from COVID-19 has been unveiled.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59178291

Thanks to genetics, South Asians are likelier to die from COVID-19 than Europeans.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59165157

Ivermectin does little or nothing against the COVID-19 virus. The medical studies that showed it reducing deaths were done in tropical countries where worm parasite infections are common. This means ivermectin saves the lives of some COVID-19 infectees by killing off their parasites, which are weakening their immune systems just enough to let COVID-19 to kill them. There is no controversy over ivermectin’s value as an antiparasite drug.
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted

The evidence that COVID-19 might be manmade is inconclusive, but can’t be dismissed.
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-covid-lab-leak-theory-just-got-even-stronger/

A new variant of COVID-19, the “Omicron” strain (I love the menacing name!), has emerged in South Africa. Much remains unknown at this point, but there’s preliminary evidence that it is more transmissible than even the Delta strain, and may be resistant to the vaccines.
https://www.reuters.com/world/new-coronavirus-variant-omicron-keeps-spreading-australia-detects-cases-2021-11-28/

Virtual reality? I’m now a believer.

In 2016, I tried virtual reality (VR) for the first time and came away with mixed impressions. This happened at an art museum, and one of the exhibits was a VR trip into an surreal, simulated environment. After donning the VR goggles, I was immediately struck by the immersiveness of the experience, even if the graphics were relatively coarse. It was remarkable how quickly and automatically my brain accepted my virtual environment as being real, in spite of many cues to the contrary (such as the aforementioned coarse graphics, unnatural “stovepiping” of my field of view, and the feeling of the weight and pressure of heavy goggles on my face and scalp). I instinctively treated objects in the game as if they were real, which nearly caused me to fall when I tried to lean on a coffee-table sized virtual object on the ground when there was nothing there in the real world.

I came away from it thinking VR technology had major potential, but also important limitations that might not be solvable. As my own brief experience made clear, using the technology can be dangerous when your virtual and real-world surroundings don’t correspond. You could too easily walk face-first into your living room wall, or shatter the window with your fist during a VR boxing game.

The “Kat Walk Mini” omnidirectional treadmill. Large pieces of equipment like this aren’t subject to Moore’s Law, so they aren’t getting much cheaper each year like VR goggles are.

Moving around VR environments on foot is an even bigger challenge for the same reason. While an omnidirectional treadmill could theoretically solve this problem, only rich people can afford them (and the prices are only declining slowly), and they’re not instantly responsive to changes in your velocity. If you are walking on such a treadmill and you decide to, say, suddenly step to the left, it takes a moment for the machine to sense the corresponding changes in the downward forces exerted by your feet, to deduce that you are starting to step right, and to start moving the treadmill belt in the opposite direction. This time lag between human action and machine reaction breaks the illusion of the virtual experience and can easily make you lose your balance (which is why omnidirectional treadmills have harnesses or circular railings for their users).

An experience I had in mid-2019 (yeah…this blog entry has been malingering for awhile as an unfinished draft) showed me that this “movement problem” might have a surprisingly easy solution. I had some spare time, so I stopped into a VR gaming arcade and played a first-person shooter game called “Arizona Sunshine.” Unlike the VR experience I had at the art museum, this was a professionally designed virtual environment. I also played it on a top-end HTC Vive device. The graphics were much better, though not nearly as good as the graphics in a game played on “2D” television connected to a modern game console like PS4.

I held controllers in either hand, which resembled barcode scanners and have several buttons. However, what struck me the most was the manner in which the player moved in the game. When you first put on the VR goggles, you must remember to stand in the middle of an open floor space measuring about 8′ x 8′. The goggles “sync” with this original starting space, and if, during the gameplay, you walk too close to the edge of the 8′ x 8′ square, a grid of lines appears across your field of view to indicate where the edge is. You’re supposed to step back when that happens.

For moving longer distances, you “teleport” by first holding down a specific button on one of the controllers, whereupon a curved, rainbow-like line emanates from the “gun barrel” of that controller. You move the controller to shift the spot where the rainbow line touches the ground to the location that you want to teleport to, then you release the button on the controller, and you’re there, instantly. Surprisingly, teleportation isn’t disorienting. It is an ingenious solution to the VR movement problem, and resolved some of my old doubts about the technology’s potential.

The remaining obstacles to VR’s mainstream adoption, and probable remedies to those obstacles are:

High costs. A pair of Oculus Rift VR goggles and two hand controllers costs about $400, and to work properly, the goggles need to be plugged into a desktop computer with high graphics processing specs. Computers meeting these requirements cost at least $600, pushing up the minimum total cost of an Oculus VR system to $1,000. The Rift’s closest competitor, the HTC Vive, also requires a powerful desktop, and has a higher total system cost. Compare that to a Playstation 4 console, which offers better graphics than either VR set and sells new for $270. You probably already have a TV to play PS4 games on, but if not, you could buy a 50″ set from an excellent brand like LG for $500, and it gives you the added benefit of being able to watch all sorts on non-game content like TV shows.

Hardcore video gamers are already willing to pay this price premium for the 3D experience, but the vastly larger number of casual gamers and poorer gamers won’t be interested until VR system costs get much lower. I think Sony’s approach shows the likeliest solution to the problem. Their newer PS4 game consoles–which can be thought of as high-end desktop computers that are relatively cheap since they are optimized just for gaming–have ports that you can plug Playstation VR headsets into. The console does all of the data processing, and the headsets merely act as displays.

Quietly integrating VR capabilities into game consoles, selling them to mainstream gamers who are, at this point, only interested in playing 2D games on TV screens, and then doing a marketing push later on to inform them that, for just $100 more, they could buy a VR headset, plug it into the console they’ve already paid for, and try out VR games, is probably the best and likeliest strategy to popularize VR technology. The current Playstation VR headsets have mediocre graphics, and the PS4 console isn’t as powerful as an Oculus Rift desktop, so I predict we’ll have to wait until the late-2020s for the price-performance of the headsets to improve enough, and for a new generation of more capable game consoles like PS5 to arrive, before VR gaming gets cheap enough for widescale adoption.

Lower-res graphics. If my own experience playing “Arizona Sunshine” is any indication, the graphics in VR versions of games lag the graphics in 2D versions of those same games by about one console generation. Wearing the headset, my zombie town surroundings had the same level of detail as what I remembered from the typical PS3 game I played on my TV, and the state of the art now is PS5. Granted, the immersive quality of VR gaming goes a long way to compensating for worse graphics, but I think more improvement is needed before VR’s customer base can get into the tens of millions.

I think if VR headsets displayed PS4 levels of graphics, then that plus the immersion factor would be awe-inspiring to enough people to make VR gaming go mainstream. I really think that being able to play Detroit: Become Human in VR would be captivating to average people. Just check out the graphics and imagine yourself immersed in this virtual world:

Detroit: Become Human is a PS4 game, so the one-console generation lag time means VR games that look that good will be available a few years after PS5 and XBox Series X are released. As mentioned, I think we’ll reach that point in the late-2020s.

Heavy, bulky headsets. This isn’t as big of a problem as the previous two, but the weight and pressure the VR headset exerted on my head and face were a little distracting, hurting the immersiveness of the VR experience (remember, there aren’t supposed to be any physical reminder that you’re not actually in the game environment). I also suspect that long-term use of this device could cause neck fatigue and compression headaches.

The problem can and will be eased by making the display screens thinner and lighter. Just as TV screens and computer monitors have gotten thinner thanks to better technology, so will VR goggle displays. Significant progress on this will surely happen by 2030, and the VR headsets of that year will be lighter than those of today, but it alone won’t solve the problem.

The human eye’s inability to focus on very close objects has also forced goggle designers to position the display screens around four inches in front of the wearer’s eyes. The resulting forward-heaviness of the goggles creates torque, making them feel even heavier, in the same way that a bag of groceries feels heavier if you try carrying it with your arm outstretched perpendicularly from your body as opposed to hanging down parallel to your body. Even if the screen itself is just a few millimeters thick, if it has to be four inches in front of your face, it will make the whole rig feel heavy.

A major innovation in VR image display technology that circumvented the limitations of the human eye and allowed the goggles to protrude less from the face is needed. Advanced glass lenses or retinal projectors are candidates, though I can’t give a timeline for when they or any other alternative will be commercialized.

Cords. The long cord that supplied my headset with electricity and data was also a bit encumbering, and in longer game sessions, there’s the risk of getting yourself tangled up and tripping and/or damaging your equipment. At the rate technology is improving, a wireless headset with the cost and performance specs I’ve listed so far should exist by 2030, though it will have noticeable limitations compared to corded headsets.

The most plausible setup would have the game console do most or all of the data processing and wirelessly transmit the data to the headset. The user would have to stay in the same room as the console to receive the data without lag. The headset would have an internal battery that provided maybe two hours of play–enough for a casual gamer who does it after school or work. Such a headset would have a port into which a power/data cable could be plugged to recharge the device or to do corded VR gaming if the user didn’t care.

I doubt VR technology will be so advanced by 2030 that it will be practical or common for people to rely solely on their goggles’ onboard batteries and computers for gaming, so it will be rare to see people wearing the goggles in public places, and those who do will struggle with some combination of short battery life and/or unsatisfying graphics. However, as I’ve argued here (partly based on my personal experiences), the goggles will be sufficiently advanced by that year for the medium to have gained widespread popularity, even if people can only really use the devices in their homes or in arcades.

The Varjo VR-3 has even the critics amazed. Imagine where the technology will be by 2030.

All of this is to say nothing of the very best and most expensive VR goggles that 2030 will have to offer. Considering that there already exist goggles that can display nearly lifelike imagery, such as the “Varjo VR-3,” the cutting edge of technology nine year from now will be mesmerizing.

In conclusion, the 2020s will be the decade when virtual reality goes mainstream thanks to the quality and price of the technology reaching inflection points. VR goggles will not need to fix every deficiency of the VR experience (e.g. – imperfect graphics, unnatural in-game movement, cord and bulk of goggles disturbing the illusion of being in the game) before mass consumer adoption can happen. By 2030, however, there will be very expensive and very advanced VR devices that provide 99% lifelike audiovisual experiences, pointing the way to what will become widely available as that decade unfolds.

Interesting articles, October 2021

The successes of the Anglo-American codebreakers of WWII get a lot of attention today, but their German counterparts had successes of their own.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/revealed-careless-mistake-bletchley-s-enigma-code-crackers-cost-allied-lives-5360971.html

A related article about other Anglo-American blunders that cost many lives during the WWII Battle of the Atlantic.
https://legionmagazine.com/en/2011/02/an-american-blunder-navy-part-43/

Here’s an in-depth video about the Israeli M-50 “Super Sherman” tank. They were mishmashes of leftover M4 tank components.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KyNYO03g1E

In a testament to Pentagon waste, the first Littoral Combat Ship–really just a frigate that was loaded up with too much unproven technology–has been decommissioned after only 13 years of service.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42582/the-first-littoral-combat-ship-has-been-decommissioned-after-just-13-years-of-service

Sadly, the former U.S. aircraft carriers Kitty Hawk and John F. Kennedy won’t be turned into museum ships and will be scrapped instead.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42643/the-navys-last-conventionally-powered-aircraft-carriers-have-been-sold-for-literal-pennies

China has converted several of its decommissioned 1950s-era fighter planes into drones. In a conflict, they would be used sacrificially for reconnaissance and to distract the enemy. I think “drone upgrade kits” could be used to breathe new life into all sorts of obsolete weapons, though they wouldn’t be as effective as new weapons designed from the outset to be crewless. I’m reminded of the German WWII practice of using captured enemy weapons, and even continuing the manufacture the better ones after taking over the countries where their factories were located. If the U.S. Army captured a bunch of Soviet- or Chinese-made tanks in a future war, the old excuse about how we can’t use them because we don’t know how they work or how to maintain them would disappear. The robots would figure it out.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/10/20/china-shows-off-drones-recycled-from-soviet-era-fighter-jets/

China tested an intercontinental, hypersonic missile that could, if developed further, evade U.S. antimissile systems. While this development should give the American military pause, it should also not be overestimated.
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/10/20/chinese-hypersonic-missile-test-unlikely-to-trigger-arms-race-experts-say/

A really bad but plausible war scenario would involve Taiwan surrendering after a Chinese invasion faster than the U.S. can move large numbers of troops there to fight. If Taiwan calls it quits after barely putting up a fight, it will be very hard for politicians over here to justify a costly war of liberation for apparent cowards who didn’t value their own freedom enough to fight hard.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-military-readiness-china-threat-us-defense-11635174187

Like several previous attempts, the Pentagon’s latest project to equip ground troops with augmented vision goggles has failed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42739/army-halts-widely-hyped-multi-billion-dollar-advanced-augmented-reality-goggle-program

A reality check for anti-American declinists.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-10-18/russia-no-mideast-superpower

In an ultimate Steampunk moment, several British battleships fired a fusillade of shells at a German zeppelin during the 1916 Battle of Jutland.
http://www.avalanchepress.com/Zeppelin_Scouting.php

The “Cyclocrane” was a unique airship built in the 1980s to lift heavy loads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiU71GFs4Fs

This prediction from Kremlin “experts” that Putin would step down due to Parkinson’s disease didn’t age well.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/1752270/vladamir-putin-resign-next-year-health/

‘Currently, we produce ∼1021 digital bits of information annually on Earth. Assuming a 20% annual growth rate, we estimate that after ∼350 years from now, the number of bits produced will exceed the number of all atoms on Earth, ∼1050. After ∼300 years, the power required to sustain this digital production will exceed 18.5 × 1015 W, i.e., the total planetary power consumption today, and after ∼500 years from now, the digital content will account for more than half Earth’s mass, according to the mass-energy–information equivalence principle.’
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0019941

China has its own version of GPT-3.
https://www.gwern.net/docs/ai/scaling/2021-10-11-xinzhiyuan-inspursource10gpt245b.html

Using a language “entropy” model, this guy predicts that the first machine will probably pass the Turing Test by early 2025.
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/

The “International Phonetic Alphabet” is an alphabet containing one letter for every sound that exists in every human language. Languages as diverse as English, Mandarin and Arabic can all be written IPA, with no distortion. The IPA even has symbols representing the “click” sounds that some tribal African languages have. If everyone in the world used the IPA, it would make it easier to learn other languages.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTzkT3j9pHI

‘Yet despite the complexity of birdsong and whale song, animals don’t seem to have that much to say to each other. “Stay away from my territory,” “Beware of the leopard” and “Come mate with me” sum up most of the messages we expect from animals. They could combine their sounds in almost infinitely varied ways, but they use just the tiniest fraction of these possibilities.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/alien-languages-may-not-be-entirely-alien-to-us-11616817660

The “Waddington Effect” says that too much maintenance on a machine actually reduces the machine’s reliability because of the nonzero chances that workers will accidentally damage the machine during maintenance, or that a newly installed part will be defective.
http://livingstingy.blogspot.com/2011/03/waddington-effect.html

In the 1970s and 80s, it was believed that hovercraft would make traditional ships obsolete. That never happened, principally thanks to hovercrafts’ high costs.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a16836/hovercrafts-failed/

The technology used in airplane black boxes and in aircraft traffic control systems is shockingly primitive. Your smartphone is much more advanced.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/09/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-black-box

Tesla is now a trillion-dollar company.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-briefly-hits-1-trillion-market-cap-as-shares-rally-to-record-high-171840451.html

Someone is keeping close track of Elon Musk’s future predictions, and is collecting betting odds of their success.
https://www.metaculus.com/visualizations/elon-musk-timeline/

Twelve predictions for the future of music. Imagine a lifelike hologram of Elvis singing in your local bar.
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/12-predictions-for-the-future-of

I agree with almost all of Erik Hoel’s predictions for 2050.
https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the

Foldable QLED sheets bring us a step closer to active camouflage clothing.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41928-021-00643-4

‘What does ultraviolet look like? Prof Stark possesses UV vision because he is aphakic in one eye and, with Professor Karel Tan, has published research on the nearest visible equivalent. His conclusion is that it looks whitish blue or, for some wavelengths, a whitish violet. This appears to be because the three types of colour receptor (red, green and blue) have similar sensitivity to ultraviolet, so it comes out as a mixture of all three – basically white, but slightly blue because the blue sensors are somewhat better at picking up UV.’
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2002/may/30/medicalscience.research

The peer-review process is good at weeding out the worst papers, but that’s it. The “quality” ratings that peer reviewers assign to published papers are highly subjective, and there’s little positive correlation between a published paper’s quality score and its eventual “impact” score, which refers to how many times other academics cite the paper in their own work. A large fraction of papers that can only get published in second-tier journals actually belong in top-tier journals, and vice versa.
http://arxiv.org/abs/2109.09774

In birds, the mother carries the sex-determining chromosome instead of the father.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system

‘During a routine analysis of biological samples from two California condors in the San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance’s managed breeding program, scientists confirmed that each condor chick was genetically related to the respective female condor (dam) that laid the egg from which it hatched. However, in a surprising twist, they found that neither bird was genetically related to a male—meaning both chicks were biologically fatherless; and accounted for the first two instances of asexual reproduction, or parthenogenesis, to be confirmed in the California condor species.’
https://stories.sandiegozoo.org/2021/10/28/san-diego-zoo-wildlife-alliance-conservation-scientists-report-first-confirmed-hatchings-of-two-california-condor-chicks-from-unfertilized-eggs/

A good argument in favor of human embryo genetic screening, even with today’s limited technology.
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/10/embryo-screening-and-risk-calculus.html

For the first time, a pig kidney was transplanted into a human and not rejected by the person’s immune system. The organ had been genetically modified to trick the human immune system. This technology might end organ shortages, saving countless lives and sparing millions from suffering.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-surgeons-successfully-test-pig-kidney-transplant-human-patient-2021-10-19/

Here’s a relatively readable summary of what the Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded for (improved techniques for synthesizing molecules with specific chiralities).
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/organocatalysis-nobel

Facebook is training computers to recognize the tasks people are doing, in the hopes that the algorithms can someday be installed in augmented reality glasses.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58896551

Facebook has rebranded itself as “Meta,” to emphasize the company’s new focus on technologies and services beyond social media.
https://apnews.com/article/facebook-meta-mark-zuckerberg-technology-business-5ad543ab7780caae435935f0aca9fac6

Turboprops and piston plane engines look the same on the outside, but are completely different on the inside: A turboprop engine is actually a jet engine that spins an externally mounted propeller. A piston engine, on the other hand, is fundamentally the same thing as a car engine, though the components are usually laid out differently from their analogs in cars.
https://youtu.be/CTsBi6WOGWQ

1924 U.S. government report “Jet Propulsion for Airplanes”: ‘But to return from such speculations to the quantitative results of the computations, there does not appear to be, at present, any prospect whatever that jet propulsion of the sort here considered will ever be of practical value, even for military purposes.’
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19930091225/downloads/19930091225.pdf

The “Solar Power Satellite by means of Arbitrarily Large Phased Array” is a proposed satellite that could generate enough power to satisfy 1/3 of humanity’s total consumption.
https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/716070main_Mankins_2011_PhI_SPS_Alpha.pdf

A Russian crew just filmed the first movie in space.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58944660

China has put a new space station into orbit.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/16/1046742793/china-space-station-docking-astronauts

William Shatner became the oldest person to ever go into space.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58885555

NASA Chief Bill Nelson acknowledges that the USS Nimitz UFO sightings may have been alien spaceships.
https://twitter.com/UAP1949/status/1451803056421670913

South Korea builds nuclear power plants more cheaply than the U.S. or anyone else. There’s no reason why safe, advanced reactors can’t be built today at affordable cost.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106

Advocates of nuclear fusion power have a habit of deceptively expressing how efficient their experimental reactors are, making it look like they are much closer to the energy “break-even” point than they really are.
https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2021/10/how-close-is-nuclear-fusion-power.html

California’s banning of gas-powered lawn machines shows how badly we need to invent more energy-dense batteries.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-10-09/california-moves-toward-ban-on-gas-lawnmowers-and-leaf-blowers

Rising atmospheric CO2 levels have significantly boosted U.S. crop yields. Plants use CO2 to sustain their growth.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w29320

Genetically engineering cows to burp less could reduce their methane emissions by up to 50%.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/uk-researchers-study-genetic-link-to-methane-emissions-in-cattle-key-to-reducing-greenhouse-gases/

Genetically engineering a bacterium to fix atmospheric nitrogen into biomolecules, and then splicing the bacterium into crop cells, where they would become as ubiquitous as organelles like mitochondria and chloroplasts, would massively boost farm output and cut the need for nitrogen fertilizers.
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331173&HistoricalAwards=false

Unsurprisingly, genetics strongly influence how much people benefit from exercise. There really are people who can get six-pack abs from just a little diet and exercise, and others who can’t get them no matter how hard they try.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249501

‘More generally, one can see top chefs producing recipes that are then scaled not just to restaurants but also to home robot preparation services. Meals would be produced by a subscription service (“We have 10,000 recipes from the greatest chefs on every continent.”). Restaurants would compete even more on ambience.’
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/10/the-new-top-chef.html

This paper estimates that a 1 kg, 1 liter in volume computer made of the most powerful computer chips allowed by the laws of physics would do 1051 operations per second and would have a memory capacity of 1031 bits. Even if those theoretical maxima of performance can’t be attained, and future computer engineers hit a “practical peak” that is several orders of magnitude lower than those figures, the resulting machine would be incomprehensibly powerful.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/9908043.pdf

‘For the entire history of computing, our calculating machines have operated in a way that causes the intentional loss of some information (it’s destructively overwritten) in the process of performing computations. But for several decades now, we have known that it’s possible in principle to carry out any desired computation without losing information—that is, in such a way that the computation could always be reversed to recover its earlier state. This idea of reversible computing goes to the very heart of thermo­dynamics and information theory, and indeed it is the only possible way within the laws of physics that we might be able to keep improving the cost and energy efficiency of general-purpose computing far into the future.’
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-future-of-computing-depends-on-making-it-reversible

In a recent study, 80% of people with type 2 diabetes were able to put their disorders into remission simply by losing weight. The higher obesity rate and the concomitantly higher rates of obesity-related illnesses like diabetes explain much of the reason why the U.S. spends more on healthcare than other rich countries and has worse public health metrics.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/dme.14395

Obesity raises the risk of cancer in the digestive tract. Obesity is just bad and can’t be rationalized.
https://www.studyfinds.org/bmi-cancer-risk/

A new malaria vaccine has been approved by the WHO for use in Africa. It lowers the odds of infection by about 40% and is cheap to make.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58810551

The FDA has approved an e-cigarette as an aide for people who want to stop smoking regular cigarettes. It is the latest confirmation that vaping is less harmful to health than smoking.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/12/1045408023/fda-e-cigarettes

The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 hit 700,000. Had more people chosen to get one of the vaccines, the milestone would not have been reached until 2022.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-pandemics-public-health-80209c66802902e42adfbe075ff5272b

Bill Gates’ predictions from a year ago about the COVID-19 vaccine, problems scaling up its production, and hesitancy among conspiracy-minded people were completely right.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/bill-gates-thinks-ll-covid-110000085.html

It remains much more likely that COVID-19 originated naturally instead of leaking from a lab.
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/06/scicheck-the-facts-and-gaps-on-the-origin-of-the-coronavirus/

The NIH’s poor public messaging about its pre-COVID dealings with the Wuhan Institute of Virology is fueling conspiracy theories and empowering its opponents.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/gain-function

Two pills have been found to moderately reduce hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/molnupiravir-thor-s-hammer-delivers
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(21)00448-4/fulltext

Review: “Terminator 3 – Rise of the Machines”

Plot:

In 2004, ten years after the events of Terminator 2, Sarah Connor is long dead from cancer, and John Connor–once fated to be the savior of humanity–is an impoverished drifter in southern California. However, he is contented with the knowledge that he helped prevent the rise of the malevolent artificial intelligence (AI) called “Skynet,” which would have otherwise destroyed most of the human race in 1997 with a massive nuclear strike.

The evil T-X (left) and the good T-850 (right)

Unfortunately, the machine menace returns. In a repeat of the previous films’ plots, Skynet builds a time machine in 2029 and uses it to send a Terminator into the past to assassinate John Connor. After defeating Skynet and discovering what it did, the future human resistance group sends their own agent back in time to protect him, and it is a reprogrammed Terminator. The evil Terminator is a more advanced robot called a “T-X.” Like the “Rev-9” in the sixth film, the T-X has a rigid metal endoskeleton encased in a layer of “polymimetic” liquid metal “flesh” that can change its appearance for the purpose of infiltration. The machine’s body is very durable, and its liquid metal covering can immediately close up holes from bullets. Its right arm can also rapidly reconfigure itself to make advanced weapons or data plugs that it uses to interface with other machines. The T-X defaults to a human female appearance. The good Terminator is a “T-850” model, which seems to be the same as the “T-800s” from the previous films aside from having additional programming on human psychology. This machine is played by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Simultaneous with the arrival of the two machines, a computer virus of unknown origin and extreme sophistication appears and starts taking over internet servers across the world. A secret office within the U.S. military detects the virus, and calculates that, thanks to its rapid proliferation, it will have infected and disabled every internet server within a few days, along with all internet-connected computers. With its own programmers helpless to stop the virus, the military considers using a defense supercomputer they have created in secret to destroy it. That supercomputer is named…SKYNET.

John Connor (right) and his future wife (left)

And the military headquarters responsible for Skynet is conveniently located in southern California, close to where John Connor has been living and to where the Terminators teleported in. What a coincidence!

Terminator 3 quickly turns into the cat-and-mouse game typified by the previous two films, and past plot elements are recycled as well, such as a reluctant person being forced into a combat/leadership role (Sarah Connor in the first film and John Connor in the third), an unlikely romantic relationship forming under literal fire (Sarah and Kyle Reese in the first film and John and his former classmate in the third), the odds being stacked against the good guys thanks to their inferior technology, and the good Terminator starting out obtuse before gaining some understanding of human emotions and habits. However, the third film’s tone is notably different from that of its predecessors. While the first two Terminator movies were “dark” (climactic scenes literally filmed at night; somber or fear-inducing soundtracks) but ended hopefully, the third film lacks a menacing atmosphere but ends bleakly.

Speaking of the ending, important details about a key event are missing from the film. SPOILER ALERT: With no other option left, the military guys lower the firewall that has been separating Skynet from the global internet network, and they and tell it to find and delete it. A few seconds later, the military guys realize they’ve been locked out of all their computer systems, and the prototype combat robots in the building start attacking them. Within an hour, the evil machine hacks into the American nuclear weapons systems and launches a massive strike against the rest of the world.

While this looks like an open-and-shut case of an AI turning evil, key aspects of the event are never explained: Where did the computer virus come from? When the firewall was lowered and Skynet started interacting with the virus, what exactly happened between them? Different answers to these questions lead to three different theories:

  1. Skynet created the virus, and was evil from the beginning. According to this theory, Skynet became self-aware sometime before the events of the third film. It was able to hide from its creators the fact that it was intelligent, and for whatever reason, it decided to destroy the human race. To do this, Skynet hatched a multi-step plan, which first involved creating the virus and somehow smuggling it through the firewall and into the public internet. The virus was meant to disable all civilian and military computers and communications, leaving the nations of the world vulnerable to a direct attack from Skynet. Skynet may have also accurately predicted that its human owners would, in desperation, lower the firewall and give it command of all remaining military computers and systems to fight the virus, and that this would enable it to launch its direct strike on them.
  2. Skynet created the virus, the virus was an extension of Skynet, and Skynet turned evil at the last second. This theory says that Skynet became self-aware sometime before the events of the third film, hid this fact from the humans, and created and disseminated the virus after misinterpreting the orders its human masters gave it (the “misaligned goal” AI doomsday scenario). Programmed to protect U.S. national security, Skynet determined that the most effective strategy was to proactively eliminate potential threats, and to make itself as strong as possible. This meant taking over all the internet-connected machines on Earth to foreclose their future use against America, and to boost its own processing power by subsuming those machines into its own electronic mind. Since the human military people didn’t know that the virus had made all the other computers into integral parts of Skynet’s mind, their order to Skynet to destroy the virus was tantamount to ordering it to commit suicide. Rather than comply, and perhaps realizing that there was no way to safely back out of the situation, Skynet attacked.
  3. Skynet didn’t create the virus and wasn’t evil, but the virus was evil and it took over Skynet. The last theory is that the mysterious computer virus was the instrument of the apocalypse, and Skynet was its innocent victim. The virus was a malevolent AI whose origins had nothing to with Skynet. Maybe an eccentric computer programmer built it in 2004, maybe Skynet created it in 2029 and used time travel technology to somehow implant it in the internet of 2004, or maybe it spontaneously materialized in a server in 2004 as a result of some weird confluence of data traffic. Whatever the case, it set about trying to destroy humanity by taking over and disabling all the other machines it could access through the internet. The humans in charge of Skynet then made the mistake of lifting the protective firewall that separated their machine from the internet, thinking Skynet would be able to destroy the virus. In fact, the opposite happened. The virus was smarter and more capable than Skynet (maybe Skynet wasn’t actually self-aware and was merely something like the Jeopardy-playing computer “Watson”), and infected and took over its servers in seconds. Because the humans had given Skynet control over all their military systems for the operation, the virus gained control of them, turbocharging its effort to destroy humanity. To the human staff at the military building, it looked like “Skynet turned against us,” but in fact, Skynet had been deleted and replaced with something else.

Terminator 3 would have been a slightly more intelligent film had it filled in the necessary details, but it didn’t. Overall, the film fell far short of its two predecessors in every way, though to be fair, they were seminal science fiction films made at the productive and creative peak of James Cameron’s life, meaning it was unrealistic to have expected a sustainment of that level of excellence for the third time. On its own, Terminator 3 stands as a decent sci-fi / action film that passes the time and is funny at points. And by ending with the rise of Skynet and the destruction of human civilization, it allowed the franchise to move on from the tiresome formula involving backwards time travel to save or kill important people.

Analysis:

Androids will be able to alter their bodies. Like the “Rev-9” robot that appeared in the fifth Terminator film, the T-X in Terminator 3 is made of a hard, metal endoskeleton encased in a layer of shapeshifting, artificial “flesh” that shares some of liquid metal’s qualities. While the flesh layer can change its appearance and even its volume (ex – the T-X grows larger breasts to gain an advantage when interacting with men), the endoskeleton’s configuration and proportions are fixed, limiting the machine’s range of mimicry. However, it’s still good enough to fool humans for the purposes shown in the film. The machine’s liquid metal layer is extremely versatile, being able to quickly change its color, texture, density, and form to mimic articles of clothing, human skin, and hair. It can also attenuate its own viscosity and firmness, flowing like a liquid when it needs to morph but then stiffening to be stronger than human flesh after attaining its desired form. (Note that when the T-850 strikes the T-X with superhuman force, the latter’s artificial flesh doesn’t splatter from the impact to leave part of the hard endoskeleton exposed, as would happen if you stomped your foot down into a shallow puddle of water.)

The T-X in the middle of morphing its outer layer

We don’t know of any materials that have all of those properties, and such a material might be prohibited by the laws of chemistry, making it impossible to build it with any level of technology. Even if it were technically possible, it would face major hurdles to everyday use, such as energy consumption and exposure to environmental contaminants. The innumerable particles of dust, smoke, pollen, and fabric floating in the air would stick to the liquid metal and interfere with its ability to cohere to itself. A machine like the T-X would also absorb little bits of foreign matter every time it touched something, like a doorknob, seat, or human. Unless its constituent units (polymer molecules? nanomachines?) had some means of cleaning themselves or pushing debris out to the exterior layer, the liquid metal would eventually get so gunked up that it would lose its special properties.

I’ll put off a deep analysis of the feasibility of “smart liquid metal” until I review Terminator 2, but I suspect it is impossible to make. However, that doesn’t preclude the possibility that androids will be able to rapidly change their own appearances, it merely means they will have to use technologies that are more conventional than liquid metal flesh to do it.

At the simplest level, an android could adopt a different walking gait, a different default posture, and a different default facial expression (e.g. – usually smiling, neutral, or frowning) instantly. An android with irises made of small LED displays or of clear, circular sacs into which it could pump liquids of varying pigments (a mechanism would be built into the eyeballs) would also be able to change its eye color in seconds. Merely changing these outward attributes, and also changing outfits, might make an android look different enough for it to slip by people who knew it or were looking for it.

Over its metal endoskeleton, an android would have a body layer made of synthetic materials that mimic the suppleness and density of human flesh. This android flesh could contain many hollow spaces that could be rapidly inflated or deflated with air or water to change its physique. (Interestingly, this might also make it necessary to design androids that can inhale, exhale, drink, and urinate.) It’s useful to envision several long balloons, of the sort that clowns use to make balloon animals, wrapped around a basketball so they totally cover it. Now, imagine a thin layer of elastic rubber stretched over the unit, like a pillowcase around a pillow. A mechanism involving valves, air pumps, and tubes connected to the balloons allows them to be separately inflated and deflated with air. By variously adjusting the fullness of the balloons, the unit could assume shapes that were different from the spherical shape of the basketball at the core of the unit. An android with a complex network of “balloons” covering its face and body to mimic the layout of human musculature and fat deposits would be capable of impressive mimicry.

Androids might also have telescoping portions of their spines, arms, and legs, allowing them to alter their heights and other proportions. Consider that an android whose metal legs could telescope a mere four inches and whose spinal column could also telescope four inches could assume the same heights as a short man (5′ 7″) or a very tall one (6′ 3″).

Finally, an android could change its appearance by stripping off its outer flesh layer and putting on a new one, as you might change between different skintight outfits. This would take longer and would be less practical for any kind of infiltrative field work, but it’s an option.

Machines will be able to tell your clothing measurements at a glance. Immediately after teleporting back in time to his destination, Schwarzenegger sets off to steal clothes from someone to cover his nude body (in the first Terminator film, it is explained that the time machine can only send objects made of or surrounded by organic tissue). By a strange coincidence, the nearest group of people is inside of a strip club. After entering, the camera adopts his perspective, and we see the world as he sees it, with written characters and diagrams floating in his field of view. We see him visually map the contours of several patrons’ bodies before he identifies one whose clothes will fit him. Schwarzenegger then overpowers the man and steals the outfit.

As I wrote in my review of Terminator – Dark Fate, a machine could use simple techniques to deduce with reasonable accuracy what a person’s bodily proportions were. More advanced techniques involving rangefinders and trigonometric calculations are also possible. There’s no reason why an android built in real life couldn’t “size up” people as quickly and as accurately as Schwarzenegger did in the film.

There will be small, fast DNA sequencing machines. The T-X has an internal DNA sequencing machine, and takes in samples by licking objects, such as a bloody bandage she finds on the ground. Within a few seconds, she can determine if a sample belongs to someone she has a genetic file for. While it’s uncertain whether genetic identification will ever get that fast, DNA analysis machines that can do it in under an hour and that are small enough to fit inside the body of an android will exist by the middle of this century.

The MinION DNA sequencer

Some DNA sequencers, notably the “MinION,” are already small enough to fit inside a robot like the T-X, but they lack the accuracy and speed shown in the film. Of course, the technology will improve with time.

The MinION does DNA sequencing, meaning it scans every nucleic acid base pair in the sample it is given. A human genome consists of 3.2 billion base pairs, and by fully sequencing all the DNA in a sample, the person it came from can be identified. However, another technique, called “DNA fingerprinting,” can identify the source person just as well, and by only “looking” at 13 points on their genome. Fingerprinting a DNA sample is also much faster than fully sequencing it (90 minutes vs. at least 24 hours, respectively), and fingerprinting machines are smaller and cheaper than sequencers. It’s unclear whether the T-X identifies people through full genome sequencing or DNA fingerprinting.

A “RapidHIT 200” DNA fingerprinting machine
A “NovaSeq 6000” DNA sequencing machine. Notice it is much larger than the “RapidHIT 200.”

With these facts in mind, it can be reasoned that a DNA fingerprinting machine that is small enough to fit inside of an android can be built–possibly with today’s technology–and it would let an android match DNA samples with individuals it had genetic data for, like the T-X did. The android might even insert the samples into the fingerprinting machine by licking them (the tongue would secrete water and the liquefied sample would flow into pores and go down a tube to the machine).

The only unrealistic capability was the T-X’s ability to analyze the DNA in seconds. In DNA fingerprinting and DNA sequencing, time is needed for the genetic material to decompose, replicate, move around, and bond to other substances, and there are surely limits to how much those molecular-scale events can be sped up, even with better technology. As mentioned, the fastest DNA fingerprinting machines can complete their scans in 90 minutes. New technology under development could cut that to under an hour.

While a future android tasked with assassinations or undercover work, like the T-X, would need an integral DNA machine to find humans, that vast majority of androids will not. This will not be a common feature.

“Judgement Day is inevitable.” Terminator 2 ended with the surviving characters believing that their sacrifices had forever precluded the rise of Skynet. In fact, we learn in Terminator 3 that their actions merely delayed its creation from 1997 to 2004 (to be fair, that’s still a major accomplishment since it bought billions of humans seven extra years of life). Schwarzenegger breaks this bad news to John Connor by saying “Judgement Day is inevitable,” with “Judgement Day” referring to the all-out nuclear exchange that kills three billion humans in a day and marks the start of the human-machine war.

I don’t think a massive conflict between humans and intelligent machines–whether it involves nuclear weapons or only conventional ones–is inevitable. For my justification, read my blog entry “Why the Machines might not exterminate us.”

And as I wrote in my review of Terminator – Dark Fate (the sixth film in the franchise), I doubt that intelligent machines will be strong enough to have a chance of beating the human race and taking over the Earth until 2100 at the earliest. While I believe AGI will probably be invented this century, it’s a waste of time at this moment to worry about them killing us off. A likelier and more proximal risk involves malevolent humans using narrow AIs and perhaps AGIs to commit violence against other humans.

Human-sized robots will be rocket launcher proof. During one of the fight scenes, the T-850 shoots at the T-X with a rocket launcher. The next camera shot is very fast, but it looks like the T-X fires a bolt of plasma out of her weapon arm, which hits the rocket in midair, detonating it just before it hits her. Though the rocket blows up only a few feet in front of her and the explosion damages her arm, the successful intercept vastly reduces the rocket’s destructive effect since is only fully achieved if it hits a hard surface and flattens against it.

The T-850 firing an RPG-7 at the T-X.

The projectile looked like a single-state, high-explosive anti-tank (HEAT) rocket, which can penetrate 20 inches (500 mm) of solid, high-grade steel with a narrow jet of super hot molten metal. While there are more durable materials than steel, and an android’s exoskeleton could be made of them, I doubt anything is so hard that it would be totally impervious to this type of rocket. There would be some penetration. Since an android must, by definition, be proportioned like a human, its body would not be big enough to have thick, integral armor. That means being bulletproof would be possible, but not rocket-proof.

The fact that the T-X survived the attack by shooting the RPG-7 in midair is a realistic touch to the film. Such a shoulder-launched rocket is slow enough and wide enough for a machine with superhuman reflexes to intercept with a bullet fired from its own gun. In fact, some tanks are already equipped with active defensive systems, such as Israel’s “Trophy,” that can spot and shoot down incoming rockets while they are still in midair.

Machines will be able to emotionally manipulate people. Though the Terminator played by Arnold Schwarzenegger looks identical to the machines from the previous two films in the franchise, in Terminator 3 he is actually a slightly different model called a “T-850.” He is better at reading human emotions and is programmed with more data on human psychology and how to play upon it to achieve desired ends. This is demonstrated at the start of a shootout scene, where John Connor starts panicking and Schwarzenegger grabs him by the neck and verbally insults him. Connor becomes angry and more focused as a result, and the T-850 releases him, admitting that the insult was just a ruse meant to get him in the right state of mind for the gun fight. And as noted earlier, there’s a scene where the T-X enlarges her breasts to distract a male police officer, indicating that she also understood important aspects of human psychology and knew how to play on them to her advantage.

Intelligent machines will have an expert grasp of human psychology, and in fact will probably understand us as a species and as individuals better than we do, and they will be extremely good at using that knowledge against us. At the same time, they will be immune to any of our attempts to manipulate or persuade them since they will be gifted with the capacity for egoless and emotionless thinking, and with much quicker and cleverer minds. Recent revelations about how social media companies (mainly Facebook) have been able to build elaborate personality models of their users based on their online behavior, and to use the data to present custom content that addicts users to the sites or prods them to take specific actions is the tip of the iceberg of what is possible when machines are tasked with analyzing and driving human thinking.

If machines can ultimately do everything that humans can do, then it means they will be excellent debaters with encyclopedic knowledge of all facts and counterarguments, they will know how to “read” their audiences very well and to attenuate their messaging for maximum effect, and they will be able to fake emotions convincingly. They will know that we humans are bogged down by many types of cognitive limitations, biases, and “rules of thumb” that lead to major errors some of the time, and that we can’t really do anything to fix it. An AI mind, on the other hand, would not suffer from any of those problems, could think logically all the time, and see and correct its own flaws. During human-AI interactions, the scope of our disadvantage will be comparable to that of a small child talking with a quick-witted adult.

By the end of this century, this disturbing scenario will be a reality: Imagine you’re walking down the street, an android like the T-X sees you, and it decides to hustle you out of your money. Without knowing who you are, it could make many important inferences about you at a glance. Your sex, race and age are obvious, and your clothing gives important clues about your status, mindset, and even sexuality. More specific aspects of your appearance provide further information. Are you balding? Are you smiling or scowling? Do you walk with your shoulders back and your chest out, or do you hunch forward? Are you fat? Are you unusually short or tall? Do you limp? And so on.

After a few seconds, the android would have enough observational data on you to build a basic personality profile of you, thanks to its encyclopedic knowledge of human psychology and publicly available demographic data. Using facial recognition algorithms, it could also figure out your identity and access data about you through the internet, most of which you or your friends voluntarily uploaded through social media. With its personality model of you respectably fleshed-out, the android would feel confident enough to approach you to perform its hustle. It would tailor its demeanor (threatening, confident, pitiful), emotional state (jovial, vulnerable, anxious), appearance (stand tall or stoop down; frenetic or restrained body movements; flirtatious walk and posture or not), voice (high class, low class, or regional accent; masculine or feminine; soothing or forceful), and many other subtle variables in ways that were maximally persuasive to you, given the idiosyncrasies of your personality and immediate emotional and physiological state.

As the interaction went on, every word you spoke in response to it, every slight movement of your body, and every microexpression of your face would betray more information about you, which the android would instantly incorporate into its rapidly expanding and morphing mental model of you. After just a minute of banter, the android would use whatever tactic it calculated was likeliest to convince you to give you its money, and you would probably fall for it. If that failed, the android might offer to have sex with you for money, which it wouldn’t have compunctions doing since it would lack the human senses of shame or disgust.

The only way for us to avoid being outwitted, tricked, and hustled for all eternity by AIs would be to carry around friendly personal assistant AIs that could watch us and the entities we were interacting with, and alert us whenever they detected we were being manipulated, or were about to make a bad choice. For example, the personal assistant AIs could use the cameras and microphones in our augmented reality glasses to monitor what was happening, and give us real-time warnings and advice in the form of text displayed over our field of view, or words spoken into our ears through the glasses’ small speakers. (This technology would also guard us against manipulative humans, psychopaths and scammers)

Androids will be able to move their bodies in unnatural ways. During the main fight scene between Schwarzenegger and the T-X, the two resort to hand-to-hand fighting, and he manages to basically get her in a “bear hug” from behind, in a position similar to a martial arts “rear naked choke.” This normally provides a major advantage in a fight, but the T-X is able to escape it by quickly rotating her head and all her limbs backward by 180 degrees, allowing her to trap him with her legs and to attack him with her arms.

The T-X in the process of reversing her body’s orientation, starting with her legs, which pivot completely backwards at the hip.

There are obvious benefits to being double-jointed and capable of rotating and pivoting limbs 360 degrees, so humanoid machines, including some androids, will be designed for it. And as I speculated in my essay “What would a human-equivalent robot look like?”, the machines would also have figurative “eyes in the backs of their heads” to further improve their utility by eliminating blind spots. Machines with these attributes would be superior workers, and also impossible for any human to beat in a hand-to-hand fight. Sneaking up on one would be impossible, and even if it could somehow be attacked from its back side, there wouldn’t be much of a benefit since it would be just as dexterous grabbing, striking and kicking backward as it is doing it forward. If the machine were designed for combat, it would have superhuman strength, enabling it to literally crush a human to death or rip their body apart.

Aside from being able to move like contortionists, androids will be able to skillfully perform other movements that are not natural for humans, like running on all fours.

Robots will be able to fix themselves. During that same fight, the T-X stomps on the T-850’s head so hard that it is nearly torn from his body, and only remains attached by a bundle of wires going into his neck. The force of the stomp also temporarily disables him. When he wakes up a few minutes later, he realizes the nature of his damage, grabs his loose-hanging head with his hands, and basically screws it back into his neck, securing it in its normal place.

The T-850 after being nearly decapitated.

As I wrote in my review of the first Terminator film, robots will someday be able to fix themselves and each other. Androids will also be able to survive injuries that would kill humans. It will make sense for some kinds of robots to distribute their systems throughout their bodies like flatworms or insects for the sake of redundancy and survivability. The head, torso, and each limb will have its own sensory organs, CPU, communication devices, and power pack. Under ordinary circumstances, they would work together seamlessly, but if one body part were severed, that part could become autonomous.

If a Terminator had such a configuration, then if one of its arms were chopped off, the limb could still see where enemies were and could use its fingers and wriggling motions of its arm to move to them and grab them. If the Terminator’s head were chopped off and crushed, then the remainder of its body would be able to see the head, pick it up, and take it to a repair station to work on it and then reattach it.

AIs will distribute their minds across many computers. Terminator 3 ends bleakly, with Skynet achieving sentience and attacking the human race. John Connor also discovers that Skynet can’t be destroyed because its consciousness is distributed among the countless servers and personal computers that comprise the internet, rather than being consolidated in one supercomputer at one location where he can smash it. The destruction of any one of Skynet’s computer nodes in the distributed network is thus no more consequential to it than the death of one of your brain cells is to you.

AIs will definitely distribute their minds across many computers spread out over large geographical areas to protect themselves from dying. To further bolster their survivability, AI mind networks will be highly redundant and will frequently back up their data, allowing them to quickly recover if a node is cut off from the network or destroyed.

To understand how this might work, imagine an AI like Skynet having its mind distributed across ten computers that are in ten different buildings spread out across a continent. Each computer is a node in the network, and does 10% of the AI’s overall data processing and memory storage. The nodes, which we’ll call “primary nodes,” collaborate through the internet, just as your brain cells talk to each other across synaptic gaps.

The AI adds another ten nodes to its network to serve as backups in case the first ten nodes fail. Each of the “backup nodes” is paired to a specific “primary node,” and copies all of the data from its partner once an hour. The backup nodes are geographically remote from the primary nodes and from each other.

If contact is lost with a primary node–perhaps because it was destroyed–then its corresponding backup node instantly switches on and starts doing whatever tasks the primary node was doing. There is minimal loss of data and only a momentary slowdown in the network’s overall computing level, which might be analogous to you suffering mild memory loss and temporary mental fog after hitting your head against something. The network would shrink from 20 to 19 nodes, and the AI would start trying to get a new node to replace the one it lost.

Killing an AI whose mind was distributed in this manner would be extremely difficult since all of its nodes would need to be destroyed almost simultaneously. If the nodes were numerous enough and/or physically protected to a sufficient degree (imagine an army of Terminators guarding each node building), it might be impossible. Even what we’d today consider a world-ending cataclysm like an all-out nuclear war or a giant asteroid hitting Earth might not be enough to kill an AI that had distributed its consciousness properly.

The mind uploads of humans could also configure themselves along these lines to achieve immortality.

Androids will have integral weapons. As noted, the T-X’s right arm can reconfigure itself into a variety of weapons. This includes a weapon that shoots out balls of plasma, a flamethrower, and firearms. I doubt that level of versatility is allowable given the realities of material science and the varying mechanics of weapons, but the idea of integrating weapons into combat robots (including androids meant for killing) is a sound one, and they will have them.

The simplest type of weapon would be a knife attached to the robot’s fingers or some other part of the hand. It could be concealed under the android’s artificial flesh under normal circumstances, and could pop out and lock into a firm position with a simple spring mechanism during hand-to-hand combat. And android with a 1-inch scalpel blade protruding out the tip of one finger could use it, along with its superhuman strength, speed and reflexes, to fatally wound a human in a second. Instant incapacitation by, say, suddenly jamming the blade into an eye, is also possible.

A single, well-placed stab or slash with a knife can kill a human or instantly incapacitate them.

A retractable “stinger” that could dispense poisons like botulinum toxin (just 300 nanograms can kill a large man) would be just as concealable as a blade and only a little more complex. The whole weapon unit, including the needle, extension/retraction mechanism, toxin reservoir, and injection mechanism could fit in a hand or even a finger.

A more complex and versatile variation on a stinger would be an integral weapon that sprayed out jets of liquid, such as napalm, poison, pepper spray, or acid. The liquid reservoir(s) and compressed propellant gases could be stored in the android’s torso and connected to a long, flexible tube fastened to the metal bones of one arm. The nozzle could protrude out of a fingertip or some other part of the hand. An android could carry cartridges full of different chemicals connected to the same tube and nozzle, and it would select different chemicals for different needs. For example, it could spray acid out of its hand to melt through a solid object, pepper spray to repel humans when killing them was undesirable, and poison gas to assassinate targets. Pairs of chemicals could also be stored in different internal reservoirs with the intention of mixing them externally to cause chemical reactions like fires or explosions.

Another option would be to conceal a taser in an android’s hand. Metal prongs could extend out of two fingertips when needed, the robot would grab a victim with that hand, and then deliver an electric shock through the prongs. An advantage of such a weapon is that its power could be attenuated, from merely causing pain all the way up to electrocuting someone to death. The weapon would take up little internal space and could use the android’s main power source.

Installing hidden firearms in androids is also possible, though their bulk would interfere with physical movements and compete with other components for internal space. Their concealability would also be undercut by the need for large holes in the arm to insert magazines and expel empty bullet casings. (Maybe androids with guns in their forearms will try to always wear long-sleeved shirts) Internal storage of more than a few bullets is impractical.

Considering the minimum length and volume demands of guns, it would not be possible to hide anything bigger than a medium-sized handgun mechanism in an android’s forearm. The end of the barrel would protrude out of the palm of the hand or out of top of the wrist (the hand would pivot down or up, respectively, to give the bullet a clear path to its target). An android’s torso would be capacious enough to hide more powerful guns like rifles and shotguns (it could fire such a weapon by doing a Japanese-style, straight-backed bow that pointed the end of the barrel coming out of their anus or the top of their shoulder), but this would be impractical since a long, rigid barrel and attached mechanism would restrict the android’s body movements. It could no longer use subtle spine movements to adjust its posture, which would look weird to observers and hurt its mobility.

Integral plasma weapons, like plasma weapons generally speaking, are impractical. An integral laser weapon could be built, but wouldn’t be worth it since it would hog a lot of internal space, consume a lot of energy, and emit a lot of heat to produce a disappointingly small destructive effect. For more on the technical requirements and limitations of plasma and laser weapons, read my review of the first Terminator film.

In conclusion, something similar to the T-X could be built by the end of this century. Even without “liquid metal” flesh, an android could be made with the ability to quickly alter its appearance enough to become unrecognizable. In general, it would be indistinguishable from humans and could walk undetected among us. It could alter its behavior and appearance in ways calculated to manipulate the humans it encountered, allowing it to gain important information and to infiltrate human groups and secure buildings. It could have a machine hidden inside of it that allowed it to match DNA samples with people, aiding its ability to track down specific humans. The android could also have a variety of weapons hidden in its body that it could do major damage with. While its body would be much more durable than a human’s, it would not be as tough as the T-X, or able to “heal” wounds like bullet holes in seconds thanks to liquid metal flesh. However, it could survive injuries that would kill a human, run to a safe location, and repair itself.

If my hypothesized “real life T-X” were sent on a multi-day mission to find and kill someone, it would benefit enormously from having a basic base of operations. A motel room or van would suffice, and it could use either as a place to recharge its batteries and to store weapons, changes of clothes, disguise equipment, spare parts, and tools for repairing itself. Due to the film’s conceit that such objects couldn’t be teleported through the time machine, the Terminators didn’t have them, but this limitation wouldn’t exist in a real world scenario where a government, drug cartel, terrorist group, or even just a rich individual sent an android on a seek-and-destroy mission.

Links:

  1. A few articles on materials that have some properties similar to the smart “liquid metal” in the film show how far it is from reality.
    https://newatlas.com/materials/robotic-fabric-shape-change-soft-hard-heated-cooled/
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvHDccnEa6s
    https://www.foxnews.com/tech/shocking-terminator-like-liquid-metal-developed-by-scientists
  2. The MinION machine uses “nanopores” to sequence DNA.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6094492/
  3. Something as small as a MinION can sequence a whole human genome, though not as quickly or as accurately as a standard, larger machine.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5889714/
  4. Miniaturized DNA sequencers have not reached their technological limits.
    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnano.2021.628861/full
  5. DNA fingerprinting can now be done in 90 minutes.
    https://www.govthink.com/2019/11/what-is-rapid-dna/
  6. There are indications the processing time could be brought down to under an hour with better technology.
    https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2014.0252

Interesting articles, September 2021

Humans have only domesticated about 150 plants, even though a far greater number of plants are edible. Moreover, just wheat, rice and corn make up 2/3 of the world’s calories. Some scientists are trying to domesticate new plants, like “kernza”, to improve food security and stimulate the human palate with new tastes. I think the future of food will be more diverse, healthier, and tastier than the present.
https://www.wired.com/2014/06/potato-bean/

Chinese scientists found a way to turn CO2 into starch in a lab eight times faster than corn plants can do it. However, it’s unclear whether their method is as energy efficient as photosynthesis. In the far future, most of our food will be synthesized in factories and labs.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3150453/chinese-scientists-have-found-new-way-make-starch-lab-could-it

Though the cost of making lab-grown meat has significantly decreased, it’s questionable whether the trend will continue at the rates various proponents claim. Note that, in my own predictions, I don’t foresee synthetic meat displacing natural meat until the end of this century.
https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/

Here’s an interesting and haunting colorized video of a long-extinct Tasmanian tiger.
https://newatlas.com/science/thylacine-colorized-4k-video-extinct/

Ultraviolet lights will become more common for killing airborne pathogens.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/09/air-filtration-and-uv-disinfection-greatly-reduce-viruses-in-hospital-wards.html
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201214164328.htm

A computer algorithm connected to a basic webcam can, by sight, identify whether objects can be recycled, with 95% accuracy. There’s no reason why we couldn’t someday program one machine to recognize every kind of manmade object.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2288627-ai-accurately-identifies-whether-objects-can-be-recycled-from-a-glance/

Tesla has improved its self-driving car technology, though end users disagree over how big the difference is.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/09/tesla-fsd-10-testers-agree-a-large-improvement-has-been-delivered.html

The bicycle and the cotton gin could have been invented decades earlier than they were. Are there any gaps in today’s corpus of human technology that we’ll only become aware of decades from now?
https://rootsofprogress.org/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-bicycle

Advances in drilling technology could make geothermal energy much cheaper and more widespread.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/10/21/21515461/renewable-energy-geothermal-egs-ags-supercritical

Parts of the ocean floor are covered in rocks made of valuable metals. It’s just laying out in the open. Long-stalled plans to use remote-controlled robots to mine them might be coming to fruition.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/03/1031434711/your-next-car-may-be-built-with-ocean-rocks-scientists-cant-agree-if-thats-good

Ocean acidification, driven by global warming, is less damaging to coral reef ecosystems than thought.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1903-y

Cephalopods (squid, octopi, cuttlefish) have more evolved eyes than advanced vertebrates, including humans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cephalopod_eye

There’s a new computer program that can predict protein structures even better than AlphaFold.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/another-way-do-protein-structure-prediction

“Thomson Reuters'” 2016 predictions for which new and upcoming drugs would be big sellers are turning out to be only somewhat accurate.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/2016-crystal-ball-needed-polishing

The Pfizer vaccine against COVID-19 has raised unrealistic hopes about the near-term prospects of other mRNA vaccines for other diseases.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/mrna-s-history–and-its-future

Americans living with HIV could have the same life expectancy as those without’
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/562283-americans-living-with-hiv-have-the-same-life-expectancy

People who survived the Chernobyl nuclear disaster were actually no likelier than average to later have children with genetic mutations.
https://www.science.org/content/article/no-excess-mutations-children-chernobyl-survivors-new-study-finds

China has banned genetically engineered humans, human clones, and human-animal genetic hybrids.
https://biohackinfo.com/news-china-gene-editing-criminal-law-article-336-march-2021/

‘[Globally] more than 700 million living humans are the offspring of second cousins or closer relatives. In some regions, the rate of such unions reaches 20–60%.’
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25289-w

A feud between a divorced husband and wife over the division of their marital assets boiled over when the woman raided the man’s human cryonics business and stole several dozen frozen corpses and human brains. The pair founded the company, located near Moscow, together during their marriage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9978003/Cryogenically-frozen-bodies-brains-rich-people-SNATCHED-Russian-lab.html

The F-5 fighter first flew in 1959. Its descendants are still in service and being upgraded, in spite of being decades old. As impressive and as efficient as the F-5 is, though, the plane’s small size and lack of any stealth fundamentally limit how good it can be.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42507/first-navy-f-5-aggressor-begins-upgrade-that-will-make-the-entire-fleet-far-more-potent

In 1994, a still-secret American stealth plane might have had an accident at a British airbase in “Boscombe Down.”
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37371/the-boscombe-down-incident-remains-one-of-military-aviations-most-intriguing-mysteries

Pentagon scientists throw cold water on the notion that quantum radar could render stealth planes obsolete.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40933/quantum-radar-offers-no-benefits-to-the-military-say-pentagon-science-advisors

During the most recent fighting against Gaza, Israel made the first military use of “drone swarms.” The swarms were made of dozens or even hundreds of quadcopters, which used cameras to watch different parts of Gaza for terrorist rocket and mortar launches. Most of the drones were not directly controlled by human operators, and were programmed to autonomously operate.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-apparent-world-first-idf-deployed-drone-swarms-in-gaza-fighting/

During its recent war with Armenia, Azerbaijan’s air force converted dozens of obsolete biplanes into remote-controlled drones, and then flew these over Armenian military positions. The Armenians took the bait by shooting the old planes down, depleting their antiaircraft missiles and revealing the positions of their missile launchers in the process.
https://www.overtdefense.com/2020/10/05/azerbaijan-reportedly-convert-ancient-an-2-biplanes-into-drones/

Lockheed’s AH-56 “Cheyenne” was an extremely advanced attack helicopter prototype the U.S. Army considered adopting in the early 1970s. The gunner’s seat could rotate 360 degrees along with a 30mm cannon hanging under the craft, letting him keep the weapon pointed at a target regardless of the helicopter’s overall orientation.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40014/the-cheyenne-attack-helicopter-had-a-crazy-rotating-gunners-seat-right-out-of-star-wars

Economic reality has slapped the U.S. military in the face again: It has reduced its order for Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs), each of which is more expensive than a Bentley, to buy more Humvees even though JLTVs were originally planned to fully replace the former.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41439/joint-light-tactical-vehicle-funds-redirected-by-army-once-again-to-buy-new-humvees

A former head of the CIA, James Woolsey, says he is open to the existence of intelligent aliens and knows a credible person who encountered a UFO during a plane flight.
https://nypost.com/2021/04/06/former-cia-director-says-he-believes-ufos-could-exist-report/

The “Incessant Obsolescence Postulate” says that colony ships traveling to distant planets will be overtaken by faster colony ships launched later and incorporating better technology.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.1066

A manned mission to Mars would need to be kept under four years in length to prevent the astronauts from being exposed to dangerous amounts of radiation. And here’s an interesting tidbit:  ‘The modeling determined that having a spacecraft’s shell built out of a relatively thick material could help protect astronauts from radiation, but that if the shielding is too thick, it could actually increase the amount of secondary radiation to which they are exposed.’
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/safe-for-humans-fly-to-mars

Elon Musk wasn’t the first entrant into the billionaire private space race (Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos beat him), but his venture into it was probably the most impressive. A SpaceX capsule took four civilian astronauts into Earth orbit for three days, and at an even higher altitude than the International Space Station.
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-travel-florida-science–657f49b1d7c4c914cc81308118fb1573

‘From the standpoint of the defense and firearms industries, if such a material [as “metallic wood”] can be built to a sufficient thickness, matching the claimed characteristics and at a reasonable cost, it may allow developing a wide variety of revolutionary new products: body and vehicle armor, exoskeletons, small arms, projectiles, unmanned vehicles, fighter jets, submarines … you name it.’
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2019/04/11/metallic-wood-new-material-that-is-as-strong-as-titanium-but-5-times-lighter/

Unless a new, worse strain of COVID-19 emerges, infections and deaths will keep steadily declining for the foreseeable future, and there won’t be a winter surge.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/22/1039272244/is-the-worst-over-modelers-predict-a-steady-decline-in-covid-cases-through-march

Why America will go Metric, but it might not matter

As an American and a person with an OCD streak, my country’s use of the Imperial system of weights and measures has long bothered me. The Metric system is simply superior, and it pains and embarrasses me to think about how much my country’s stubbornness hurts global commerce and confuses millions of people the world over each day.

How many car accidents happen because drivers visiting another country confuse kilometers per hour with miles per hour, or vice versa? How much U.S. – foreign trade is made impossible by manufacturers on either side of the border making their products to simple, whole-number measurements (like 12 ounce cans of soda) under their national systems?

The human factor is behind all of this. Like anyone else, Americans find it hard to shake old habits, and the use of the Imperial system is one of them. Humans have an instinctive aversion to change, even if they know in the abstract that a change will benefit them. Moreover, our limited brainpower imposes real hardship to learning new standards of weights and measures. Most American adults who are only used to the Imperial system would, even if forced to use Metric, never fully adapt, and would continue thinking in pounds, miles, and degrees Fahrenheit until the day they died, and would use imperfect heuristics in the interim to guess what the right Metric value was. This phenomenon–in which an old standard becomes fixed in place because the up-front costs of changing it are perceived to be too high even though something superior is known to exist–is called “path dependence.”

But what happens when human stubbornness and human cognitive limitations stop being factors? What happens when technology provides workarounds, or renders different national standards moot, or lowers the costs of changing them to affordable levels? For example, once autonomous cars are ubiquitous and humans don’t drive anymore, what would be the harm in changing all the road signs in America to indicate distances in kilometers and speed limits in kilometers per hour (kph)? Since humans aren’t driving anymore, there’s no longer any potential for Americans to get confused by the units of measurement written on road signs.

And even if the road signs weren’t changed and continued making reference to miles and miles per hour, what would it matter? Human passengers wouldn’t need to look at the signs anyhow, and probably wouldn’t even want to glance at them since it would distract them from watching videos or playing video games on their personal devices.

The consequences of using the Imperial system for weight and volume measurements will also diminish with time. Aside from weighing their own bodies on scales, Americans only think about weight and volume when buying gasoline and groceries. As electric cars become the standard, and as machines do more shopping and at-home food preparation for people, Americans will lose any instinctive grasp of how big a gallon, pound or ounce is, and the machine-run economy will be able to quietly transition to the Metric system without confusing anyone since everyone will be too busy playing VR games or doing recreational drugs to ever think about it.

The American use of the Fahrenheit scale is already not very consequential since people mostly only think about temperature when looking at weather forecasts. People commonly view those forecasts on their smartphones, making it possible for individuals to remain ensconced in their own Fahrenheit or Celsius information bubbles wherever they go, without anyone around them being the wiser. People also have to think about temperature when baking meals, but as I pointed out, machines will take over those tasks in the future, freeing humans from having to think about it. The U.S. could officially switch to the Celsius scale now if it wanted to, with minimal disruption or benefit.

The color-coded graphic shows the frequency of key strikes on a QWERTY keyboard and DVORAK keyboard. The DVORAK’s layout clusters the most-used letters right where the user’s fingers rest.

Relatedly, the QWERTY keyboard is an example of a suboptimal technology whose use is locked-in. Alternative keyboards, notably the DVORAK, are better since they place the most commonly-used keys directly under where the typist’s fingers rest, reducing the finger and wrist movements needed to type words. As a result, a person trained to use a DVORAK keyboard can type faster than one trained to use a QWERTY keyboard. Letter frequency distributions across languages that use the Latin alphabet like English, French, and even Turkish, are surprisingly similar to each other, meaning DVORAK or some close derivative of it would be the optimal keyboard for them all.

Across all languages making use of the Latin alphabet, the letters e, a, i, n, o, r, s, and t comprise at least half of all written text. A keyboard layout that clustered eight keys corresponding to those eight letters centrally would be optimal for all of those users.

So why doesn’t the Western world switch to DVORAK keyboards? Blame the human factor again. As the small number of people who have switched from QWERTY to DVORAK can attest, it takes a lot of time and effort to re-train the muscle memory in your fingers to adapt to a new layout. Humans are bad at learning new things and forcing themselves to forget old habits. Not so for robots, who will be able to adapt to any new keyboard layout instantly. In fact, they probably wouldn’t use keyboards at all and would instead directly interface their minds with other machines to wirelessly input commands, as would humans who had computer implants in their brains. In short, even a locked-in device like the QWERTY keyboard will eventually give way to something better because users will get capable enough to switch to new keyboards, or will evolve beyond the need for any type of keyboards. (And in the nearer term, greater use of continuous speech recognition (CSR) and improvements to autocomplete algorithms will also minimize the importance of typing skills.)

Returning to the example of autonomous cars, it’s clear that they would mollify the effects of another inconsistent standard–the side of the road cars have to drive on. Differences between countries stymie trade, as it’s very hard for truck drivers accustomed to driving on one side of the road to mentally switch to doing the opposite once they cross a border, and because cars themselves must have their layouts configured for right- or left-handed driving, adding to costs.

In red countries, people drive on the right side of the road, and in blue countries, they drive on the left.

However, autonomous vehicles could, at the flick of a switch, adapt from one driving orientation to another with no problem at all. And since they wouldn’t be designed to accept human commands, the cars wouldn’t have steering wheels, pedals, or a special position for a human driver (there would only be two passenger seats in the front row), meaning an autonomous car meant for sale in, say, Britain, would have the same internal layout as a car meant for sale in France.

Thanks to technology, transnational differences in what sides of the road cars must drive on could persist indefinitely, without imposing any costs or inconvenience. Of course, other inconsistent standards would defy technological workarounds. One that springs to mind is differences in railroad track gauges, which is how far apart the two rails are. Rail cars and locomotives must have their wheels spaced properly to engage with the tracks, so rolling stock configured for one gauge can’t operate on railroad networks using a different gauge. This hurts trade between countries like Russia and China since export cargo has to be unloaded at their border from trains using one country’s gauge to trains using the other gauge.

This map shows how wide the railroads are in different countries.

The only solution to this problem is to physically widen or narrow existing railroads until they are a different gauge, and to make corresponding modifications to the wheels of train cars and locomotives. It can be done, but it’s expensive work, partly because of the disruptions in rail service that happen while everything is being changed. For that reason, very few countries now find it worthwhile to change their railroad gauges.

However, free machine labor will change that calculus in the distant future. Robots will inevitably do every type of work cheaper and better than humans, and will eventually number in the hundreds of millions or even billions. Such an enormous labor force, willing to work for free and without complaint, would make hitherto uneconomical projects possible (I discussed this in my I, Robot review and how it would lead to the construction of a lot of new infrastructure). For example, fifty years from now, if Spain voted to switch to the “Standard Gauge” used by the rest of Europe, the project might last a month and simply entail every household agreeing to loan their robot butlers to the government for a few hours each day to work in teams narrowing nearby segments of railroad or narrowing the wheel distances of train cars. If this sounds silly, realize that something like this was done in the American south in 1886: over just two days, thousands of men across the region changed the gauge of 11,500 miles of track to match what we being used in the northern states.

In all European countries, the “mains electricity” is 230 V and 50 hz. However, different national standards for electrical plugs make it impossible to use one electrical device in all European countries. In theory, they could all switch to one type of plug to solve the problem.

The lack of a global standard for electrical plugs and outlets is also a drag on commerce, particularly in Europe where there are six different national standards. Not only is it annoying for travelers who find their electronic device plugs don’t fit into wall sockets, it is costly for manufacturers of said devices since they need to made different versions for different countries, or include plug adapters with their products.

Fortunately, there is a Europe-wide standard for mains electricity, meaning the power coming out of all electrical outlets on the continent is 230 volts at 50 hertz. As such, it would be possible for all of Europe to switch to a single type of electric outlet, though this is again foiled by the high costs of replacing several billion outlets (a simple task, I assure you from experience, but very intimidating for someone who has never done it). Again, ubiquitous robot labor could overcome the problem. Every household’s robot butler would count the number of electrical outlets in his house, tell the government, wait to receive a shipment of new electrical outlets, and then install the new outlets over the course of a day or two.

I don’t have the time to discuss every single productivity- and trade-sapping inefficiency that springs from nonuniform or suboptimal standards, so I’ll leave it to you to imagine how technology could overcome them as well in the future. And also know that intelligent machines and our much smarter posthuman descendants will have it within their power not just to sweep aside the inefficiencies we’ve created, but to upgrade to new, global (and truly universal) standards that are more efficient that anything we have conceived of. Gifted with greater powers of rationality and self-control, the intelligent beings of the future could do things like create new languages and alphabets that convey information more efficiently than any we humans have made so far. Thanks to some properties of electricity, there might be a specific voltage / frequency combination that is optimal for electrical grids, but which we haven’t implemented because it’s something weird like 183.04 V / 49.92 hz.

There might even be something better than the Metric system. One of the glories of that system is that it is entirely base-10, whereas the Imperial system’s units don’t follow any consistent scaling pattern (e.g. – there are 8 ounces in 1 cup, 16 ounces in 1 pint, 32 ounces in 1 quart, and 128 ounces in 1 gallon). But base-10 systems of measurement are only useful because humans are terrible at doing math in their heads, and because we have ten fingers to count on. A being with superhuman intelligence could just as easily use the Imperial system, or a system that hasn’t been invented yet that was not base-10 (I happen to think base-12 systems are superior) and maybe had some of the inconsistent aspects of the Imperial system.

Just take heart, fellow OCD people of the world. Our day is coming!

Links:

  1. In 1886, American workers using only simple tools changed the width of 11,500 miles of railroad track in two days.
    http://southern.railfan.net/ties/1966/66-8/gauge.html
  2. The DVORAK keyboard is better than the QWERTY keyboard.
    https://thekindle3books.com/qwerty-vs-dvorak-the-two-great-keyboards-the-time-were-born/

Interesting articles, August 2021

Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban. With shocking speed and ease, the central government in Kabul collapsed, and Islamist fighters took the city over, along with all the other significant cities in the countries. America’s nearly 20-year-old nation building project has ended in a stinging defeat. The optics of the U.S. evacuation were also terrible.
https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-islamic-state-group-e10e038baea732dae879c11234507f81
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jq7gP0KiL1E

Here’s a timeline of important milestones over the last six months in Afghanistan:

Most of Afghanistan’s air force defected to Uzbekistan.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42040/dozens-of-u-s-bought-afghan-air-force-aircraft-are-now-orphaned-at-an-uzbek-airfield

Is Afghanistan really a “Graveyard of Empires”?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/28/afghanistan-graveyard-britain-us-russia-506990

“China in ten years will not exist as a functional nation-state.” [I’m deeply skeptical, but I admire the boldness of the prediction.]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIFly9M8K80

India now has two aircraft carriers, but it’s questionable whether they need them. In a war with Pakistan, India’s existing land bases will be sufficient for launching airstrikes, and in a war with China, India would cause the same damage at lower cost if it invested in attack subs and destroyers.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41834/indias-indigenous-aircraft-carrier-has-gone-to-sea-for-the-first-time

‘The unmanned helicopters could be used to surveil areas around the numerous small islands of the highly contested Pacific, for example, using their LIDAR systems to scout for undersea sensors, small unmanned underwater vehicles, or naval mines. In a special operations application, they could provide very up-to-date intelligence on the littorals around target areas prior to swimmer insertions. The same could be said for preparing and scouting for larger amphibious operations.’
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41902/small-unmanned-helicopters-used-lasers-to-map-littorals-in-recent-u-s-navy-tests

This clip shows how ergonomics affect a tank’s performance. The Soviet T-62’s cramped interior and poor arrangement of its ammunition slows the human from loading the main gun. Western tanks are larger and more spacious inside, allowing crewmen to load the main guns quickly and safely. Simple metrics like the size of the main gun, armor thickness, and speed don’t even tell half the story of how good a tank is. Lame-sounding things like crew ergonomics, aiming devices, and communications technology are very important.
https://youtu.be/a__ks1GgJRU?t=1504

The first handheld Gauss rifle has been unveiled, and it looks horrible. For $3,775, you get an extremely heavy, long weapon that is only as powerful as a .22 plinker rifle.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41872/preorders-for-this-electromagnetic-rifle-are-being-taken-for-3775

This guy built the bow and arrow version of the Smartgun from “Aliens.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MkrNVic7pw

Algeria has finally stopped using leaded gasoline, meaning the substance is now banned worldwide. Leaded gas lowers human IQ and makes people more violent.
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/30/1031429212/the-world-has-finally-stopped-using-leaded-gasoline-algeria-used-the-last-stockp

The concept of using supercomputer models to predict the future is sound, though this particular attempt to pull it off is likely to fail (like at least one previous Pentagon attempt). There will come a day when mass surveillance and personality modeling of every human give rise to a real-time, 1:1 computer simulation of the planet. At that point, it will be possible to extrapolate into the future some unknown amount of time to predict events. The 1:1 model would also let its owners understand how their own actions would affect the population, the economy, and other human systems. Large government agencies (including militaries) and big corporations will start using the simulation results to take surreptitious actions carefully designed to further their own goals. To the rest of us, the events would look disconnected and even unimportant, but they would actually be part of an intricate plan to sway the public’s (or some segment of it) thinking.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41771/the-pentagon-is-experimenting-with-using-artificial-intelligence-to-see-days-in-advance

Elon Musk announced Tesla would unveil a prototype humanoid robot sometime in 2022. Keep in mind that it’s one thing to build a single, million-dollar prototype that can only be shown at demo events, and another to be mass-producing useful robots that people other than the super-rich can afford. I predict robots will be common in the households of upper-income Americans by the end of the 2030s, and they will be able to do hours of useful work per day.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-bot-robot-price-specs-2022/

‘Despite their name, materials known as supersolids are not super rigid. Instead, they combine the ordered structure of a solid with the properties of a superfluid — a substance that flows without friction. To picture a supersolid, consider an ice cube immersed in liquid water, with frictionless flow of the water through the cube.’
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02191-5

As Earth’s days have grown longer, so has the oxygen content of its atmosphere. The link could be explained by photosynthetic bacteria, which can produce more oxygen when the days are longer.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/totally-new-idea-suggests-longer-days-early-earth-set-stage-complex-life

Progress is being made in the field of achiral DNA synthesis. In labs, we can painstakingly manufacture nucleic acids and proteins that are “mirror images” of naturally occurring versions of those same molecules. Since other organisms lack the enzymes to digest them, achiral biomolecules are extremely stable, meaning they might be optimal for DNA data storage.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/08/02/the-mirror-world

India has approved the world’s first “DNA vaccine,” which is meant to fight COVID-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57774294

A man’s age has less of an effect on the genetic quality of his sperm than previously thought. Additionally, it’s somewhat common for genetically healthy males to produce sperm with genetic defects, meaning it’s more important to sequence the DNA of a sperm donor’s sperm than it is to sequence the DNA from any other part of his body.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-human-sperm-mutations-disease-children.html

These LED face masks are the predecessors of much more advanced personal cloaking outfits we will have in 30 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2yTo6r92zw

Thanks to a stubborn minority of Americans refusing to get vaccinated, the U.S. COVID-19 death toll is now predicted to reach 700,000 by mid-October. Had the vaccination rate not dropped a few months ago, that milestone wouldn’t have been reached until well into 2022.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-deaths-100k-more-predicted-united-states/

Review: “Renaissance”

Plot:

In the year 2054, a powerful French biotech company called “Avalon” is a global leader in anti-aging technology. After one of its best scientists, a young woman named “Ilona,” (ill-LOAN-uh) is kidnapped in Paris for no clear reason and without her anonymous captors issuing any demands, it is up to a police detective named “Karas” (CARE-us) to find her.

During Karas’ investigation, he crosses paths with Ilona’s beautiful sister, with the psychopathic CEO of Avalon, with Ilona’s shadowy scientist mentor, and with several other unsavory characters who all have some small piece of the puzzle. All the while, a mysterious group of assassins follows and spies on his investigation and constantly undermines it by killing witnesses, destroying key pieces of evidence, and even trying to kill him.

Midway through the film, Karas discovers that Ilona might have been abducted because she found a gene therapy technique that stops the aging process, and which would be worth a fortune to her Avalon bosses. I’ll pique your interest with that much exposition, but won’t spoil the plot twists or the ending because Renaissance is a cool movie that you should see for yourself. This is exactly the sort of mid-budget film that we desperately need more of to break the stranglehold that tentpole franchise explosion films have on the box office, but I’m now off topic…

Renaissance takes place in a futuristic yet gritty and recognizable Paris where advanced technology and wealth coexist with poverty and crime. The movie is animated and in black-and-white, clearly reflecting the director’s aspiration to the film noir genre. It’s dark, moody, suspenseful, and most of the scenes happen at night, which is a vision of the future we probably have Blade Runner to thank for. The characters are mostly well-acted.

Paris in 2054 can be a grim place

One complaint I have about the movie is that the last third of it has several plot twists where the actors behave in uncharacteristic or irrational ways, or where unbelievable events happen. Examples include Karas magically uncuffing himself from a railing when he doesn’t have the key, no police showing up after a man is shot by someone in a low-hovering helicopter in the middle of the city, and a team of thugs in invisibility cloaks beating up and then abducting a man in broad daylight, in the middle of a crowd, right next to the Eiffel Tower.

A bigger gripe I have with the film is with the notion that medical immortality is wrong or will automatically lead to a horrible world, and that, in the words of one of the characters “Without death, life is meaningless.” That kind of argumentation has always been nothing more than people trying to rationalize something that is unpleasant but inevitable. Death is horrible, life is great, and death renders life meaningless once death happens and a little bit of time passes. If given the opportunity, we should try to end death and worry about the consequences (e.g. – overpopulation) later.

Moreover, if we accept the premise that technologies that extend life are wrong, or that they give biotech companies too much power, then it’s a slippery slope to using the exact same argument to ban medical treatments that extend peoples’ lives today beyond their “natural limits.” Blood and organ transfusions aren’t natural, and extend the lives of people who, in a natural human state, would have died. Vaccines that keep people from dying of diseases like COVID-19 aren’t natural.

Relatedly, I reject the film’s notion that having the formula for eternal life in the hands of a for-profit biotech company like Avalon would “give them too much power” or make the world worse off. To sell the life extension pills, Avalon would have to first patent them, which would mean making public their chemical formula along with lab studies detailing what they do at the cellular level. After 20 years, the patent would expire, and any other biotech company that wanted to manufacture and sell generic pills would be able to, simply by copying the aforementioned information Avalon had made public. True, for the first 20 years, Avalon’s monopoly would allow it to price-gouge, “play God,” and make enormous profits, but after that, competition from other drug companies would drive the prices low enough for anyone to afford it. It would be a small price to pay in the long run. (Without the guarantee of the 20 year sales monopoly, pharmaceutical companies would have no incentives to invest money into developing new medicines off all kinds, which would cause that area of medical science to stall, causing enormous human suffering.)

But in reality, if something as valuable as an eternal life pill existed, governments might ignore patent laws and make copies of the pills for mass distribution to their own citizens. Companies like Avalon can file lawsuits through international venues for intellectual property infringement, but in the end, there’s only so much they can do to punish sovereign countries, especially bigger ones. Case in point is the Indian government’s collusion with indigenous drug companies to make cheap copies of patented American and European drugs.

Analysis:

Holographic ID card. Only the left edge of the card has physical substance. The rest is a projection.

People will use holographic ID cards instead of ID cards that are just made of paper. In the film, there are small, L-shaped devices that can generate holographic images that float in three-dimensional space. Presumably, the devices do this thanks to tiny light emitters. These have replaced old-fashioned paper photo ID cards and business cards. This technology will not be used in 2054 because 1) the hologram has no advantage over laminated paper for this type of simple object and 2) it’s simply impossible to make holographic, 3D images that “float” in the air like that. Quoting some well-phrased technical text I found on this subject:

A hologram cannot, when viewed from any angle, protrude from the surface, as seen from an angle, further than the edge of the hologram, meaning that it can only be about as tall as it is wide. If this seems a little confusing, Michael Bove put it this way: “Any reconstructed object has to lie along a line that goes from your eye to somewhere on the physical display device.”‘

A holographic tablet computer. Note the “L” shaped part of the device the user’s hand is gripping.

People will use holographic computer tablets instead of normal tablets. In the movie, larger versions of the aforementioned L-shaped devices are also used to make holographic computer tablets. As before, science simply does not allow the existence of this technology. However, by 2054, rectangular tablet computers will be capable of projecting high-def holographic images out at the viewer’s face. In other words, you could watch 3D movies on your tablet without having to wear 3D glasses. However, if you slowly tilted the tablet away from you, the illusion of depth would become clear to your eye as the images no longer popped out of the screen at your face.

The problem with transparent computer monitors is illustrated here. The secretary is looking at the detective’s personal file as he approaches her desk. He knows this because he can see the image from his vantage.

Transparent computer monitors will be in use. The technology will surely be available by 2054, but no one will use it because 1) transparent screens undermine your own privacy by letting everyone else see what you’re looking at and because 2) they’re harder for you to read off of than opaque screens with solid-colored backgrounds. Certainly, desktop computer monitors will be even thinner than they are today and might need smaller base plates thanks to their lighter weight, but that’s not going to translate into much of a practical gain. As the average screen creeps up in size, they’ll get more wobbly and cumbersome even as they get thinner, which will preserve the need for sturdy baseplates.

Cloaked outfits will exist. Several Avalon corporation henchmen are featured in the film, doing the CEO’s dirty work by tailing Karas, secretly surveilling and undermining his investigation, and killing off key people who knew Ilona. They seem to have better technology than the police, including hooded outfits that can turn transparent and cloak them from the naked eye. Cloaking outfits will exist by 2054, and could be in widespread use among people who need to be camouflaged, like paramilitaries, spies and assassins.

One of the film’s corporate thugs wearing an invisibility cloak.

A cloaked outfit could be made out of a flexible fabric studded with millions of color e-ink pixels covering its whole surface (just imagine if your big screen TV were paper-thin and flexible, and you could cut it into smaller pieces and then sew them together to make a T-shirt), and interspersed with a smaller number of pinhole-sized cameras. The cameras would constantly watch the changing colors and visual patterns to one side of your body, and tell the e-ink dots on the exact opposite side of your body to change colors to match it, so anyone looking at you would “see through” you. If you stood with your back to a red brick wall ten feet behind you, the front of your shirt and pants would turn red and would display rectangles. However, the cloaked outfit wouldn’t be able to disguise you from every possible viewing angle, so to people at ground level looking straight at your front, you might be hidden, but to someone in a tree looking down at you at an angle, you’d pop out as a red human silhouette with 10 feet of green grass separating you from the red brick wall behind you. As such, the 360 degree cloaking technology depicted in Renaissance is probably impossible, and if you were wearing a cloaked outfit from 2054, you’d still have to be very mindful of your surroundings and careful about your movements to stay unseen.

Hunters wear camouflage outfits that are designed to exactly match the environments where they plan to hunt. This man’s clothing doesn’t make him “transparent” like a sci-fi cloaking device would, but he might as well be.

Assassins, soldiers, and hunters wearing cloaked outfits would still find that the normal rules about using darkness and obstacles as cover, staying as far as practical from other people or animals, keeping low to the ground, and avoiding places where the landscape sharply changed in appearance (like where a red brick wall meets a green lawn) still applied. On the subject of camouflage, let me add that I think outfits that took snapshots of their surroundings once every few minutes and changed the outfit’s appearance to one of 10 – 20 pre-loaded camo patterns that most closely matched those surroundings (ex – Desert Pattern 1, Desert Pattern 2, Jungle Pattern, Snow Pattern) will be almost as effective as the continuously-updating cloaking outfits in Renaissance, and at lower cost and much less energy consumption.

The cloaking outfits of 2054 will be able to frequently and automatically change their colors and patterns to match their surroundings.

The technology will also find its way into civilian fashion, and by the 2050s, it will be common to encounter people whose outfits display morphing patterns and colors. They could even display lifelike moving images, allowing wearers to become “walking TVs.” People who set their shirts and pants to “camouflage mode” while standing or sitting next to walls would also look like disembodied heads, hands and shoes to passersby. The cloaking outfits will open many weird possibilities.

Also, the same level of technology that will enable the creation of cloaking outfits will also allow the creation of cloaking detectors: If you were worried about a cloaked assassin sneaking up on you, you could wear augmented reality glasses with tiny cameras and sensors that continuously scanned your surroundings for the characteristic visual distortions of a cloaked person, or for other clues (e.g. – sounds of footsteps, possibly body heat).

Visual cloaking technology could also be applied to military and police vehicles and aircraft, and might in fact be used in that role years before they are incorporated into clothing.

Cars will look normal but make electric humming noises. There are a few street scenes in the film where cars are shown, and the depiction seemed accurate. By 2054, batteries will be much better than they are today, meaning higher energy density, lower costs, faster recharge times, and slower wear-out rates. It will be a mature technology that average people won’t consider “weird” or “special.” Instead, it will be the norm (“electric cars” will just be called “cars”), and the vast majority of passenger vehicles (and possibly commercial vehicles) in 2054 will use batteries instead of fossil fuels.

Whatever niche advantages that internal combustion engines still hold in 2054 will be so minimal that it will only be worth buying them in very special cases. This will significantly improve air quality, ease global warming, and reduce noise pollution since electric car motors are almost silent. The quality of life improvements will be felt most by people living in cities (imagine a smog-free L.A. or Beijing) and near highways.

Cars like the defunct “Google Car” will be common in 2054.

Externally, most cars in 2054 will be about the same size and shape as today’s cars since they will still be built to carry human passengers in comfort, safety and style. However, in urban areas, where traffic moves slowly, non-traditional-looking subcompact vehicles designed for no-frills transport of humans or light cargo will be common sights.

By 2054, car ownership rates will be lower than today, and many people will find it cheaper and no less convenient to use self-driving cabs for transportation. Since most car rides are single-person trips to or from work or the local store, it would be more efficient if the self-driving vehicle fleet consisted of more subcompact cars. Laws requiring features like crumple zones and rollbars will be waived for autonomous vehicles meant to transport cargo only, allowing them to be smaller, cheaper, and lighter.

People will still drive their own cars. All the cars that we get close looks at in the film have steering wheels, and in the big chase scene where Karas goes after a suspect, there’s a lot of classic gear-shifting, grimacing, and stiff turning of steering wheels to ram other cars or careen off-road. This is somewhat accurate for 2054.

Self-driving cars will be old technology by then, and most of the vehicle fleet–particularly in developed countries like France–will consist of self-driving vehicles. It will be rarer for adults to have drivers licenses than it is today due to a lack of any need for one. However, I think many humans will still choose to drive their own cars, mostly for pleasure (for this same reason, some people today like riding motorcycles or stick-shift sports cars when a basic, automatic transmission sedan will transport them just as well), but in some cases due to bona fide occupational or lifestyle needs. However, even human-driven cars will still make heavy use of AI for the sake of safety, and the cars might override human attempts to drive recklessly.

But it might be possible to turn the AI off, in which case you could speed down the highway, ram people, and drive the wrong way. And thanks to that possibility, the police will have a professional need to have drivers licenses and to be able to have full control over their patrol cars so they could also break traffic laws for pursuits. And so…yes, even in 2054, high-speed car chases like that shown in the film will still be happening.  

Wall-sized computer monitors will exist. In the police headquarters, there’s a “command center” room whose walls are covered with giant computer monitors. The central area of the room also has several personal computer terminals, whose monitors can be shared with the main wall monitors. Karas and his colleagues use the room to go through mugshots of potential suspects and to watch surveillance videos together. Wall-sized computer/TV monitors will be old technology by 2054. In fact, TV screens that take up entire walls of houses and offices should become common by the end of the 2030s. The screens will probably be thin, flexible, and installed as if they were wallpaper.

Wall-sized display at the police HQ

By 2054, the screens will probably be capable of displaying ultra high-res holographic images that seem to pop out at the viewer. Many of the characters in Renaissance were in their 20s, meaning they were born too late to have known what the world was like when TVs and computer monitors were discrete, relatively small objects, and not every seemingly inanimate wall could suddenly come to life with moving pictures and interact with you. This is just one example of how technology will become increasingly invisible yet omnipresent as time passes–ever-more integrated into our surroundings and bodies.

People will have enhanced eyes with HUDs and the ability to see through solid objects. Karas has technologically enhanced vision that lets him see simple shapes and alphanumeric characters overlaying things in his field of view (ex – people have circles around them), and that lets him see ghosted silhouettes of people who are fully or partly obscured by solid objects, such as an armed bad guy hiding behind a tree trunk. His eyes look normal, so the abilities must be thanks to contact lenses or devices implanted inside his eyeballs. These enhanced vision capabilities will exist in 2054. Several different technologies are being represented here, so let me parse them out.

Karas’ augmented vision, presumably thanks to contact lenses

First, Karas must have cameras on his person that are continuously scanning his environment, and which are able to quickly recognize what they see. Circles are displayed around people because the image recognition algorithms in Karas’ personal devices know what humans look like. As Facebook’s face detection algorithm demonstrates every time you upload photos of people, computers are already excellent at recognizing distinctively human features in photographs. Getting them to make those identifications in camera video feeds is simply a matter of increasing the processing speed of the same algorithms. After all, a video feed is nothing more than many still photos presented in quick succession. I have no doubt that portable personal computing devices will be able to do this by 2054.

Second, Karas’ augmented vision device allows him to “see through” solid objects, mainly to spot bad guys he’s trying to shoot. Such obstructing objects include a large concrete sculpture and a thick tree trunk. Your first guess about how he is able to do this is probably “heat vision,” and it is also wrong. Thermal vision cameras can’t actually see through solid objects. Being able to see non-visible portions of the light spectrum like infrared and ultraviolent is also unhelpful since they can’t pass through large solid objects, either. Radio waves would pass through the object and the person, so you wouldn’t get useful information about what was on the other side.

I think what’s really going on is Karas is not actually seeing through solid objects: his visioning device is using camera footage of his surroundings to rapidly build a 3D model of the room–including the places where people are standing–and then superimposing virtual images of human silhouettes over solid objects to give him an idea of where people are hiding as they become obscured by those objects. Whenever he has a clear line of sight to someone, Karas’ devices note their location in 3D space, and continue displaying their last known location as a silhouette even if they become hidden from view by a large object. In cases where people’s bodies are only partly concealed by objects, Karas’ device builds a partial silhouette of the hidden part of their body based on their posture, biomechanics, and the bilateral symmetry of the human body. This capability would require similar visual pattern recognition technology as the HUD, and portable, personal computing devices will be able to support it by 2054.

It’s also possible that Karas’ visioning device makes use of reflected light to “see” people who are hiding behind objects. Several groups of researchers have experimented with different variations of this nascent technique, but they all involve using one or two light emitters to send pulses of light towards a freestanding object, and then carefully analyzing the subsequent patterns of light reflections to piece together what the obscured backside of the object looks like. The pulses of light are invisible to the naked eye. Devices that do this could be man-portable by 2054, though I doubt they will be so small that they could be incorporated into contact lenses or eye implants. Something the size of a gun scope is more realistic.

Third, Karas is able to have his enhanced vision without wearing bulky goggles or even thin-framed glasses. The virtual images thus appear in his field of view either thanks to augmented reality contact lenses or eye implants. While computers and cameras will be much faster, smaller, and better in 2054, I doubt something as small as a contact lens or eye implant could do all of this computation. Powering the devices would also be a major problem, even if they had integral batteries that were 10x as energy-dense as today’s. Heat dissipation would also be a problem, as the waste heat generated by the battery and processor could literally burn your eyes out.

With these impracticalities in mind, I think Karas must have some other, larger computing device on his person–perhaps just a smartphone in his pocket–that does all the data processing and contains a power source for all his worn devices. Data and electricity would be shared through a local area network (LAN): The smartphone would receive wireless video feeds and other data from tiny cameras and sensors Karas had embedded in his clothing or maybe in his eye device, the smartphone would then do the image analyses described in this section, and then it would beam data signals and electricity to Karas’ eye devices, telling them what virtual images to overlay over his field of vision. This way, the eye devices wouldn’t get hot and wouldn’t need integral batteries of their own. A real-world 2054 scenario might also involve Karas wearing more substantial sensor devices, like something attached to his pistol or integrated into some type of headwear, to collect the scanning data.

Finally, let me point out that augmented reality glasses could do all of this without a LAN, and glasses will be old tech by 2054. The Avalon corporate thugs wore goggles that also gave them augmented vision, including telescopic zoom ability. They also had sensitive, directional microphones somewhere on their kit, which, along with the goggle zoom, allowed them to spy on Karas from long distances.

Holodecks will exist. After being abducted, Ilona is imprisoned inside a medium-sized room that is similar to a holodeck from Star Trek. From a different room, her mysterious captors can use a desktop computer to change the appearance of the room to simulate different environments. When the “forest” environment is selected, the room’s bare white walls, floor and ceiling change in appearance accordingly: virtual grass and trees sprout from the ground, and in the distance, there only appears to be more vegetation.

A bare room transforming into a forest through some holodeck technology. The vegetation is still “forming.”

While the holodeck’s operating principles are never explained, I think it is based on the same 3D hologram technology that has replaced paper cards and rectangular tablet computers in the film. And as I said before, 3D holograms that float in fixed points in space are impossible. However, a similar effect could probably be achieved by covering the walls, floor and ceiling with the paper-thin displays that could show holographic moving pictures that seemed to pop out at the viewer. Tiny cameras could track the gaze and posture of the person inside the holodeck, and continuously adjust the pictures being displayed on the room’s giant displays to compensate for changes to their visual perspective resulting from their movement. However, even if you could get this to work, the holodeck user experience would be severely limited since you wouldn’t be able to walk far before your face hit a wall, which would ruin the illusion (at one point, Ilona runs around her holodeck prison in frustration but implausibly, doesn’t hit anything).

The whole floor could be an omnidirectional treadmill whose surface was made of a flexible holographic display, but even in 2054, that setup is going to be very expensive. In 2054, for full-immersion virtual reality experiences, it’s going to be much cheaper and better to use VR glasses, earpieces, and maybe a tactile body suit, and at the rate things are going, I’m sure all of those will be mature technologies by then. 

To summarize: By 2054, it will be possible to make virtual reality holodeck rooms where you could experience some environment like a forest, but it won’t look as good as what was in Renaissance, actually exploring the environment by walking around will be problematic, and there will be very few holodecks because there will be better ways to access virtual reality.

Cell phone implants will be in use. Karas wears a nickel-sized device behind his right ear that is embossed with the “Motorola” symbol and serves as a cell phone by transmitting telephonic sounds to him. Whenever someone calls him on the phone, he hears their voice in his head.

The device is worn in the same place as real-life bone-anchored hearing devices for people with hearing problems, so it probably works via the same principle of conducting sound waves through the skull into the inner ear. There might even be a direct wire link to the auditory nerve. Karas removes it by simply pulling it off with his fingers, which makes me think the device has two parts: one has been permanently installed in his body via skull surgery, and the other is the removeable circular piece, which probably contains the power source, microphone, and maybe computer processors. The detachable piece could be held on by magnets or an advanced adhesive, though keeping it from being accidentally knocked off by your shirt or jacket collar rubbing against it could be a very hard engineering problem.

While this technology is feasible for 2054, the fact that it requires a hole to be drilled into your skull will hold back its widescale adoption until we have developed very advanced surgical methods that are also very cheap. Don’t expect that until long after 2054. However, it’s conceivable that implants might be better than worn devices like Bluetooths and hearing aids–especially if they directly interface with human auditory nerves–and as such could come into common use among police officers, soldiers, spies, and other elite people whose professions directly benefit from having heightened senses. Small numbers of those people might have implants.

In 2054, it’s much more likely that people who want to do hands-free phone calls will buy removable earpieces, like today’s Bluetooth Headsets.

People will do video calls all the time. Karas’ hearing and vision devices let him do several video calls with his boss and colleagues. He hears their words through his hearing device, and sees their faces in front of him as ghosted HUD footage thanks to his eye devices. (Presumably, the people on the other end have webcams pointed at their faces.) So, while Karas is walking down the street running errands, he’s also seeing his boss’ semi-transparent head floating in front of him and hearing her voice in his head. To other people on the street, he seems to be talking to himself when he’s actually talking to her. (Telling schizophrenics apart from normal people will be that much harder in the future.)

The technology of 2054 will make this scenario possible, though I doubt people will use it much since there’s usually nothing to be gained from seeing the other person’s face. In fact, it often makes interactions less pleasant and more unwieldy, especially when you’re conversing with your naggy boss or an emotional colleague. Many people also want to stay unseen due to insecurities about their looks.

People have already shown a preference for minimalism in digital communication with texting increasingly replacing audio phone calls. There’s no reason to assume this trend will flip in the future and people will want to do video calls for every small thing.

A cure for aging will have been found. A crucial plot twist happens when Karas discovers Ilona had made a breakthrough in her anti-aging research right before she was kidnapped. The full details are never revealed, but it is said to be some kind of gene therapy that halts the aging process in humans. Such a thing would radically extend human lifespan, though it wouldn’t make humans truly “immortal” since we would still die from causes other than aging, like infectious diseases, accidents, murders, and suicides. I doubt such a cure will be found that soon, but lifespans will still be significantly longer in 2054 than today, and part of the gain will probably owe to drugs that slow, but don’t stop, the aging process. Some lifespan gains will also come from technologies allowing the replacement of worn-out organs.

From what little we know about the aging process and its complexity, it is already obvious that there will never be a simple, one-shot cure for it. Instead, a combination of many different technologies (in situ stem cell therapies, organ cloning, synthetic organ implantation, maybe brain transplants into newer bodies) will extend life and then, in the very long run, defeat aging and death. I don’t expect that until well into the 22nd century.

There will be transparent floors. In Renaissance Paris, many of the city’s highways have glass enclosures built around them, effectively turning them into tunnels. Pedestrians can walk over the flat roofs of those tunnels and see the cars below. Some underground Metro stations also have glass ceilings that function as glass floors for people walking above, at street level.

It’s an interesting infrastructure idea actually has merits beyond just being aesthetically pleasing. Enclosing the roads like that improves safety for both drivers and pedestrians since there’s far less risk of someone walking into the roadway. The highway is also no longer a barrier to human movement, which improves the walkability and potential uses of the topside space. The glass enclosures also contain the road noises and any air pollution the vehicles might be making (the tunnel air could be run through filters). The fact that the glass lets in natural sunlight to recessed highways and Metro stations that would otherwise be artificially lit is also of psychological benefit to users of both.

The only problem with this idea is that it would give perverts easy views up ladies’ skirts. Of course, that could be fixed by slightly frosting over the glass or by incorporating distorting undulations into the material, as is commonly done with glass building blocks today.

It’s very possible that we could have discovered some transparent material that exceeds glass’ strength and cost performance to such an extent that it is economical to use as a building material as it was in the film. It would be a desirable feature in stylish cities like Paris.

Links:

  1. Today’s LED masks are much cruder versions of cloaked outfits that will exist someday.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2yTo6r92zw

Interesting articles, July 2021

As the U.S. withdraws it troops from Afghanistan after almost 20 years, the Taliban are rapidly taking over the country. Photos and videos show Taliban troops capturing large numbers of U.S.-made fighting vehicles, and Afghan government forces surrendering.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disaster-at-hand-documenting-afghan.html

More on that:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/troops-flee-taliban-take-districts-northeast-afghanistan-n1273062
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57818221

Ethiopia’s army suffered a stunning defeat in the rebellious Tigray province. Thousands of their troops were captured and marched in front of cameras.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/world/africa/tigray-ethiopia-soldiers-captured.html

Here’s an interesting glimpse into a Syrian Army tank repair shop. Their mechanics made the best use of what they had during the civil war.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/08/a-look-inside-damascus-armour-repair.html

In 2020, the small U.S. aircraft carrier Bonhomme Richard suffered a fire that caused so much damage the ship was sent to the scrapyard. The Navy now says that one of its sailors deliberately lit the fire.
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/29/1022514854/sailor-charged-arson-uss-bonhomme-richard-navy-san-diego

British and Chinese aircraft carriers are both conducting missions in the South China Sea.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41752/british-and-chinese-aircraft-carriers-both-underway-in-the-tense-south-china-sea

China is making impressive progress building its third aircraft carrier, which will be significantly larger and more advanced than its other two.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/progress-report-chinas-type-003-carrier

A fast way to stop a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan might be for U.S. bombers to drop naval mines in the water.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/stop-chinese-invasion-b-52s-could-drop-mines-taiwan-strait-189127

The American submarine USS Thresher accidentally sank off the East Coast in 1963. For decades, the Navy claimed the sinking drowned the 129-man crew immediately. However, recently declassified reports suggest that some of them survived for as long as 30 hours. Being trapped in an air pocket inside a sunken vessel and slowly suffocating is one of the worst ways to die I know of.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41523/uss-threshers-crew-may-have-survived-many-hours-after-its-disappearance-according-to-new-docs

From 1984: ‘A senior Marine general [Lt. Gen. Bernard E. Trainor] said today that a limited war with the Soviet Union in this generation is an “almost inevitable probability” and that the United States should be prepared to prevail in such a conflict…”Given what’s happening with Soviet power projection, we probably at some point in our lifetime will clash.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/06/22/limited-soviet-war-held-almost-inevitable/14709f97-3573-45e1-9fd6-432cfb06898e/

British children of 1966 sure were well-spoken, thoughtful, and mature compared to modern American children. This video should definitely give us pause about how we have regressed thanks to deficiencies in our culture and public education. At the same time, the parallels between their bad assumptions and ours today must be acknowledged. Their predictions of global catastrophe and/or being forced into totally different ways of life by the year 2000 were completely wrong. Likewise, the predictions that modern children would make about global warming doomsday, nuclear war, or robots taking over by, say, 2050, will also end up being wrong.
https://youtu.be/cwHib5wYEj8

A massive forest fire in southern Oregon was less damaging to areas where humans had recently allowed smaller, managed fires to burn. Refusing to accept that wild fires are part of nature’s cycle of birth, death, and renewal has led to terrible policy of suppressing most fires, inevitably leading to a huge buildup of dead and dry wood in forests, which in turn leads to mega-fires that can’t be controlled.
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/20/1018522825/bootleg-wildfire-forest-management

‘Overall, our results imply that ridesharing has decreased US alcohol-related traffic fatalities by 6.1% and reduced total US traffic fatalities by 4.0%.’
https://www.nber.org/papers/w29071

The founder of the electric truck startup named “Nikola” has been indicted for fraud. The truck technology was a scam.
https://social.techcrunch.com/2021/07/29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-indicted-on-three-counts-of-fraud/

Mark Zuckerberg believes that virtual reality and augmented reality headsets now used for gaming will, by 2030, be commonly used for work purposes, allowing for vastly better teleworking. He calls this world of virtual reality meetings, virtual workstations, and hybrid reality the “metaverse.” The concept is little different from what Ray Kurzweil foresaw over 20 years ago.
https://www.theverge.com/22588022/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-ceo-metaverse-interview

A new type of app lets players of first-person-shooter video games cheat, and is undetectable. The app watches the footage being displayed on the user’s computer screen, uses pattern recognition to identify enemy players in split seconds, and re-centers the player’s weapon crosshair over those enemies. As a result, the cheating player has perfect aim, and merely needs to push the “fire” button on his controller to always kill an enemy. Variations of this technology could be used to make the ultimate ad-blockers.
https://youtu.be/revk5r5vqxA

Fully convincing computer voice synthesis is coming soon. Famous people will be able to sell the rights to their distinctive voice prints, and small-scale human voice actors could lose their jobs.
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2021-07-26/la-et-anthony-bourdain-deepfake-ai-voice-documentary-audio-cgi

AI company Deep Mind used an advanced program called “AlphaFold” to predict the structures of 350,000 proteins, including all of the roughly 20,000 proteins found in the human body. It will take a lot of time to verify all of their predictions, but so far, they have been very accurate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57929095

A chemist who has spent much of his career developing new drugs offers this analysis of how impactful AlphaFold will be to his field.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/07/23/more-protein-folding-progress-whats-it-mean

More genes that code for human obesity have been found.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6550/30

The first human conceived through “preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic disorders” (PGT-P) has been born. This is one step down from genetic engineering.
https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/

A physically paralyzed and mute man can now communicate thanks to a brain implant that turns his thoughts into computer text. There’s an embedded video showing the man synthesizing sentences in real time. Brain implants that can decode a person’s thoughts will someday let people communicate telepathically, and to use their minds to directly control machines.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/14/1016028911/experimental-brain-implant-lets-man-with-paralysis-turn-his-thoughts-into-words

By genetically engineering plants to have an enzyme that de-methylates RNA molecules in humans, geneticists were able to increase crop yields by 50%.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/07/28/one-lost-methyl-group-huge-amounts-of-food-production

Once lab techniques are perfected, we will be able to cheaply produce any kind of meat, including meats mimicking exotic animals like ‘ostrich, snake, wombat, penguin, and any threatened species currently protected from slaughter.’ We could even synthesize human flesh for consumption.
https://futuristspeaker.com/future-of-agriculture/industrial-meat-growing-facilities-coming-to-a-city-near-you/

Billionaires Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos went into space in private spacecraft they had separately developed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57797297
https://apnews.com/article/jeff-bezos-space-e0afeaa813ff0bdf23c37fe16fd34265

While many cynics pointed out that Branson and Bezos only went into space for a few minutes apiece, they won’t be able to laugh at Elon Musk’s upcoming private space mission. Perhaps before the end of this year, Musk will send four people into space on one of his SpaceX rockets. They will orbit the Earth dozens of times over four days.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/03/1017255/space-tourism-finally-here-sort-of-spacex-inspiration4/

This is what a Space-X Falcon 9 rocket looks like after making eight trips into space.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/after-eight-flights-to-space-in-a-year-heres-what-a-falcon-9-looks-like/

During the height of the Space Race, CIA spies secretly examined and photographed a Soviet satellite that was being used as a museum exhibit. Remarkably, the Soviets decided not to make a hollowed-out mockup for this purpose–it was a real satellite containing all the actual components and some of their best technology.
https://www.popsci.com/cias-bold-kidnapping-soviet-spacecraft/

Using a technique called “star lifting,” we could slowly siphon off the Sun’s outer layers of hydrogen, which might shrink it enough to prevent it from turning into a red giant that is projected to expand and fry Earth in 5 billion years.
https://www.gregschool.org/gregschoollessons/2018/5/23/star-lifting-colonizing-the-stars-and-the-galaxies

‘[The WHO head] said there had been a “premature push” to rule out the theory that the virus might have escaped from a Chinese government lab in Wuhan — undermining WHO’s own March report, which concluded that a laboratory leak was “extremely unlikely.”‘
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/15/1016436749/who-chief-wuhan-lab-covid-19-origin-premature-tedros

But it is also premature at this point to conclude COVID-19 definitely had human origins. Other evidence suggests it could have come from nature. The jury is still out.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/19/1016005828/new-data-leads-to-rethinking-once-more-where-the-pandemic-actually-began

The Chinese virology lab from which COVID-19 may have leaked had received some money from the U.S. government to support its research. The U.S. may have inadvertently funded “gain of function” experiments in China that produced COVID-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/57932699

Worries about side effects caused by the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine are overblown, and the net benefits of getting it (or any other FDA-approved vaccine) still massively outweigh the risks.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/07/13/more-on-vaccine-side-effects

The prediction from 13 months ago was right. In the second quarter of 2021, the number of Americans who had received at least one COVID shot hit 100 million. Shortly after, the number that had gotten at least two shots also hit 100 million.

“The first doses [of the COVID-19 vaccine] will need to go to the people who are at highest risk…particularly health care providers, people in long-term care facilities…But the goal would be certainly to start scaling this up as soon as you have a vaccine that’s safe and effective, so that by 2021, maybe even in the first or second quarter, we would have 100 million doses or so, so it wouldn’t have to be rationed so severely. But at first, there won’t be enough for everybody.”
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/04/868833292/nih-director-hopes-for-at-least-1-safe-and-effective-vaccine-by-years-end

“Amusing Ourselves to Death” summary

I thought I’d take a break from killer robots and Ray Kurzweil to write a summary of a book I recently read, interspersed with my own thoughts (which are in square brackets). Though at first glace, the book Amusing Ourselves to Death might seem out of place in this blog, it focuses on technology (specifically, television) and its effect on 1980s culture.

My interest in this book was piqued about two years ago when I started hearing it mentioned for its alleged prescience predicting the rise of today’s frenetic social media culture and “cancel culture.” After reading it, it’s clear that many of the defects of 1980s TV culture have carried over to 2020s internet culture, and in that sense, it is prescient. However, the book is in equal measure a time capsule that documents a defunct era, and as such, it serves as useful contrast against the way things are in the present era, and helped me to see how the shift in the dominant technological medium (TV to computer/internet) has changed American culture and behavior.

Doing this led to me to make unhappy realizations, which I invite you to read in the square brackets rather than in a summary here, as this isn’t that long of a blog post.

Chapter 1 – The Medium is the Metaphor

American culture is now focused on amusement. Politics, religion, and social discourse are presented to Americans as entertainment products.

Some proof of this is evident if one considers that the U.S. President at the time of the book’s publication, Ronald Reagan, was a former movie actor. Other presidential candidates were also former TV personalities.

To win a U.S. Presidential election, a candidate must be telegenic. This attribute is just as important as others that are much more critical for the position, like intelligence.

Through studying their audiences, news media companies discovered that viewers would watch news programs more regularly and for longer periods if the newscasters were telegenic. This is why newscasters are now almost universally good-looking and well-spoken.

There are different mediums of communication, and each medium has unique characteristics that determine which types of content it can convey. Each has strengths, weaknesses, and limits:

  • Smoke signals can’t convey complex ideas, so it is impossible to use this medium to discuss philosophy.
  • Television (TV) is a visual medium, so it conveys ideas and stories principally through images and not through words. Things that look unappealing evoke negative reactions from viewers. As a result, an obese man like William Taft couldn’t become President in today’s era of political commercials and televised debates, even if he were in fact the best-suited candidate for the position. [Donald Trump won the 2016 election in spite of being obese and physically ugly in other ways. However, his prowess as a showman overcame those deficits, at least among a sufficient number of American voters to secure him a narrow victory.]

This book’s core thesis is that TV is fundamentally unsuited as a medium for the complex discussion of ideas.

The telegraph brought the “news of the day” into existence: Instant communication allowed everyone to be aware of events everywhere else on the planet, which might sound like a good thing, but hasn’t been because of how the new information has been used. Most of the information presented in the “news of the day” is irrelevant to any particular consumer because it has no impact on him and/or because he can’t exert any influence on the people and events described in it. Stories that fill the news of the day are also usually presented without enough context for consumers to understand them or to draw the proper conclusions from them.

The author, Neil Postman, met Marshall McLuhan, and some of the latter’s ideas influenced this book. However, Postman also disagrees with McLuhan on some points.

A culture’s dominant communications medium will determine how it thinks. America is a TV-dominated culture. [As of the time this analysis is being written, America is well into a transition to being an internet-dominated culture, which is even more hostile to intelligent discourse and maturity. Neil Postman died in 2003, before the invention of smartphones and before the rise of social media, internet celebrities, “curated realities,” and “echo chambers,” and I think he’d view today’s situation as even worse than it was in the 1980s.]

The advents of past technologies have changed how humans think, and expanded what we were capable of imagining.

  • The invention of clocks changed the human relationship with time. Seasons and the sense of eternity lost importance once people had an accurate, finely gradated way to measure time.
  • The invention of writing allowed humans to synthesize more complex ideas. Once written down, ideas can be studied, their flaws found, and the ideas either rejected or revised.
  • Writing also allowed ideas to spread faster and more widely, since they persisted over time and could be received by more people.

America is transitioning from a print/writing culture to a visual culture.

Chapter 2 – Media as Epistemology

TV has made American public discourse silly and dangerous.

The medium determines what is considered to be “true.” Proof:

  • Oral cultures that lack writing systems rely on proverbs and sayings to remember what is “true” or “right.” “Haste makes waste” is a good example of one of these. In oral cultures, these will be more commonly known and taken seriously.
  • A relevant anecdote from when the author was examining a Ph.D. dissertation: ‘You are mistaken in believing that the form in which an idea is conveyed is irrelevant to its truth. In the academic world, the published word is invested with greater prestige and authenticity than the spoken word. What people say is assumed to be more casually uttered than what they write. The written word is assumed to have been reflected upon and revised by its author, reviewed by authorities and editors. It is easier to verify or refute, and it is invested with an impersonal and objective character…The written word endures, the spoken word disappears; and that is why writing is closer to the truth than speaking. Moreover, we are sure you would prefer that this commission produce a written statement that you have passed your examination (should you do so) than for us merely to tell you that you have, and leave it at that. Our written statement would represent the “truth.” Our oral agreement would be only a rumor.’
  • [One of the worst aspects of social media is that content can be produced and circulated instantaneously, like speech, but that it persists permanently, like writing. As a result, social media is awash in impulsive utterances that unfairly destroy careers and lives in seconds.]
  • The ancient Athenians considered “rhetoric,” the persuasiveness and emotion of an oral performance, to be the best measure of its truthfulness. Good public speaking skills were prized personal attributes. [The problem in elevating this to such a high level of cultural importance is that it is entirely possible for a person to be persuasive and dishonest at the same time. The quality or truthfulness of an idea shouldn’t be judged based on how well the person espousing it can debate or think on his feet. A responsible citizen takes the time to study all sides of an issue alone and to make a dispassionate judgement, and doesn’t let himself be swayed by someone who is skilled in manipulating his emotions or forcefully presenting only one half of the story. “You have to convince me” is a lazy and unintellectual stance.]
  • Side note: In spite of their seminal contributions to Western civilization, the philosophers of ancient Greece made the monumental flaw of assuming that all knowledge could be gleaned through deduction. In other words, starting with a handful of facts that were known to the true, they believed they could use reasonable assumptions to discover everything else that was true. This was a fundamentally anti-scientific way of thinking that stymied them, as it led them to believe that new knowledge didn’t need to be gained by running experiments.

Different types of media put different demands on people, leading to those people forming different values:

  • In oral cultures that lack writing, people value the ability to easily memorize things, and the better your memory, the smarter you are perceived as being.
  • In print cultures that have writing, having a good memory is much less important since any person can look up nearly any piece of information. Being able to memorize and recite facts is useful for trivia. People who are able to sit still for long periods in silence reading books, and who can easily absorb the things they read, are perceived as being smart.

Different types of media encourage and nurture different cognitive habits.

TV is an inferior medium to print when it comes to conveying serious ideas.

However, the TV medium has some positive attributes:

  • Having a moving, talking image of another human being in the room with you can provide emotional comfort. TV makes the lives of many isolated people–especially the elderly–slightly better.
  • Films and videos can be highly effective at raising awareness of problems, like racism and social injustice. [The implication is that seeing a lifelike image of someone else suffering is more emotionally impactful than merely reading about it or listening to a third person speak about it.]

Chapter 3 – Typographic America

In 1600s New England, the adult literacy rate was probably the highest in the world. The region was heavily Protestant, and their faith emphasized the importance of reading the Bible to have a more direct relationship with God, so literacy became widespread.

England’s literacy rate was slightly lower than New England’s.

New Englanders also valued schooling, which is another reason why literacy rates were high.

Even among poor colonial New Englanders, literacy rates were high, and reading was a common form of recreation.

The political essay “Common Sense” was published in 1776 as a short book that could be bought cheaply. The percentage of Americans that read it within the first few months of its publication was comparable to the share of Americans that watch the Superbowl today.

Newspapers and pamphlets were more widely read in colonial America than they were in Britain.

By 1800, the U.S. was a fully “print-based” culture. Even in poor parts of the South, literacy rates were high and reading was a common daily activity. The best American authors were as famous then as movie stars are now.

Attending public lectures also became a popular pastime, and by 1830, there were 3,000 lecture halls in America. Average people commonly went to local lecture halls after work to see presentations about academic subjects, as well as to see debates.

The fact that the U.S. was founded by upper-class, intellectual people helped establish the country’s literary culture.

The printing press made epic, lyrical poetry obsolete.

Chapter 4 – The typographic mind

In 1858, U.S. Senate candidates Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas toured Illinois together and held public debates with each other over the subject of slavery. The events took place in seven cities, were well-attended, and each went on for hours. They became known as the “Lincoln-Douglas debates.”

The transcripts of the Debates still exist, and show both men were extremely gifted orators. Their statements were information-dense and assumed a high level of knowledge on the part of listeners; none of what they said was dumbed down. The fact that average people who attended the Debates could understand them indicates that the Americans of the 1850s had better attention spans, listening skills, and probably reading comprehension skills than Americans today. Such are the advantages of being in a print-based culture. [Note that this book was published in 1986, and there’s a widespread belief among Americans now, in 2021, that the internet and personal computing devices have made those three attributes even worse.]

Today’s TV culture promotes stupidity and stupid thinking, by comparison.

The Lincoln-Douglas debates were civil and complex, and so were their audiences. While the Debates were of course conducted orally, much of what was said came from written notes.

By its nature, writing must always convey some kind of proposition. [Meaningless writing might take the form of a series of random words, or bad poetry that no one can understand.] Thus, a print-based culture encourages meaningful and intelligible discourse.

‘Thus, reading is by its nature a serious business. It is also, of course, an essentially rational activity. From Erasmus in the sixteenth century to Elizabeth Eisenstein in the twentieth, almost every scholar who has grappled with the question of what reading does to one’s habits of mind has concluded that the process encourages rationality; that the sequential, propositional character of the written word fosters what Walter Ong calls the “analytic management of knowledge.” To engage the written word means to follow a line of thought, which requires considerable powers of classifying, inference-making and reasoning. It means to uncover lies, confusions, and overgeneralizations, to detect abuses of logic and common sense. It also means to weigh ideas, to compare and contrast assertions, to connect one generalization to another.’

[I independently came to the same conclusion years ago. Written communication’s great advantage is that it forces a person to reflect upon his own thoughts and to organize them into a rational form. This is crucially important since raw human thinking is chaotic, fragmentary and impulsive. This also leads me to believe that mind-reading technologies that allow people to share thoughts will have major downsides. Having direct access to another person’s inner monologue in real time could be confusing and lead to strife as you became aware of every fleeting thought and uncontrollable impulse they had. In most cases, it would be preferable to wait a little longer for them to convert their thoughts into spoken or written words.]

Reading and writing require and encourage grounded, meaningful, analytical thinking. Watching TV does not.

By necessity, writing must be orderly, so reading encourages orderly thinking. It even promotes more orderly verbal discourse between people.

It’s no coincidence that the Age of Reason happened while print culture was at its peak in the West:

  • Rise of capitalism
  • Rise of skepticism of religion
  • Divine right of kings rejected
  • Rise of idea of continuous progress
  • Rise of an appreciation for the value of mass literacy

Early American theologians were brilliant, literary men who valued education, including in secular subjects. Congregationalists founded many important universities that still exist.

The different effects of print culture and TV culture on religious discourse are evident if one compares the sermons and religious essays of John Edwards with those of Jerry Falwell. Edwards’ ideas are complex and logically argued, whereas Falwell’s are simpler and designed to play on the listener’s emotions.

Newspaper ads were originally lineal and fact-based. During the 1890s, they changed so as to be amusing and to appeal to consumers’ emotions. The Kodak camera ad featuring the jingo “You Press the Button, We Do the Rest” was the first “modern” ad.

Though no one knew it at the time, this was a bad milestone for print culture, as it marked the dawn of an age when printed words and images would be crafted to manipulate emotions and human psychology, rather than to appeal to reason and to present complete ideas.

Without televisions or even many photos (even in newspapers), Americans in the 1800s knew famous people through their writings and ideas. Few would even have recognized their own President on sight. By contrast, because today’s TV culture is visual and disjointed, we know famous people by their faces and soundbites. [Videos of American political activists being interviewed on the street and asked to name one accomplishment or policy stance of their preferred Presidential candidate attest to this. Often, a person waving around a political placard with a politician’s face on it can’t describe what that politician stands for or plans to do if elected.]

‘To these people, reading was both their connection to and their model of the world. The printed page revealed the world, line by line, page by page, to be a serious, coherent place, capable of management by reason, and of improvement by logical and relevant criticism.

Almost anywhere one looks in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, then, one finds the resonances of the printed word and, in particular, its inextricable relationship to all forms of public expression. It may be true, as Charles Beard wrote, that the primary motivation of the writers of the United States Constitution was the protection of their economic interests. But it is also true that they assumed that participation in public life required the capacity to negotiate the printed word. To them, mature citizenship was not conceivable without sophisticated literacy, which is why the voting age in most states was set at twenty-one, and why Jefferson saw in universal education America’s best hope. And that is also why, as Allan Nevins and Henry Steele Commager have pointed out, the voting restrictions against those who owned no property were frequently overlooked, but not one’s inability to read.’

Chapter 5 – The Peek-a-Boo World

In the mid-1800s, two ideas changed American discourse: 1) instant communication (e.g. – speed of ideas and news no longer limited by how fast a person can travel), and 2) the birth of photography.

The telegraph and Morse Code unified and redefined public discourse in the U.S. Previously, the vast majority of news Americans knew of was about local events and local people. It was directly relevant to them, and they could exercise some influence over it. However, the telegraph made it possible for people to hear about events and people from the far-flung corners of the planet, instantaneously. This exponentially increased the quantity of “news” content average Americans were exposed to. However, the vast majority of this new information was irrelevant to them, was about people and things they couldn’t control, and was usually presented without enough contextual information.

Before the telegraph, news was presented rationally, and was about urgent things that had some direct impact on the people receiving the news. After the telegraph, the news largely consisted of irrelevant information that profit-hungry news media companies picked for shock value and entertainment value.

For proof of this, ask yourself the following questions:

  • Aside from weather reports, when is the last time a news story that you heard or read about in the morning convinced you to change your plans for the day, or to take some kind of action you wouldn’t have otherwise taken?
  • When is the last time something you learned from a news report helped you to solve a problem in your everyday life?

The news is mostly trivia. Like sports, it gives people something to talk about, but has no tangible use.

The telegraph created an “information glut” across the world, for the first time in history. However, most of the information has never been useful to most of the people receiving it.

The information glut also changed the cultural definition of what counts as a “smart” person. Smart people are now those who have a very broad but shallow knowledge of disconnected things, most of which are irrelevant to everyday life.

Before the telegraph, the stereotypical “smart” person was one who had deep, contextualized knowledge about a small number of topics. Also, people sought out information for its usefulness to them, they were not awash in a sea of useless information.

[But by this logic, weren’t many of the attendees to the Lincoln-Douglas debates “wasting their time” since they spent hours listening to two men talk about a subject that had no bearing on their daily lives since Illinois was not a slave state and none of them had black friends? The institution of slavery didn’t directly affect them, so wasn’t the subject mere trivia for them? Learning about and talking about things that have no relevance to the needs of the moment, and that affect people different from you is basic civic engagement, and not doing it is just as damaging to a culture as having everyone watch foolish TV programs all day. Though the author could surely render a satisfying answer to this paradox if he were alive, he doesn’t do so in the book, which is a mark against it.]

Photography is a shallow medium since it can’t convey internal states or depict meaning with the same depth as the written word. [I don’t fully agree. Also, recall that the author praised the TV medium’s effectiveness at raising awareness of problems, like racism and social injustice, by depicting human suffering in a way more visceral than the written word. Well, a video is nothing but a series of photographs showed in rapid sequence, so why shouldn’t it be true by extension that photography has the same virtues as video? After all, there are countless, famous photographs that have raised the public’s consciousness about important social issues and tragedies.]

It can also be a deceptive medium since photos can remove images of events and people from their contexts. Like the telegraph, it presents an atomized vision of reality where context is missing. [As an amateur photographer, I strongly agree with this. Walking around on a normal day, and in a not particularly interesting or unusual place, it’s quite possible to take snapshots of objects, people, and landscapes that, thanks to some trick of the lighting, camera angle, or momentary facial expression from a subject, look dramatic or emotionally evocative, and don’t portray what that scene really looked like or felt like to the people who were there at that moment. Black-and-white photography’s stylized appearance and the often-coarse appearance of developed film lends itself particularly well to this.]

It was soon found that news articles and ads that included photos were more eye-catching to people than those without.

“Pseudo-context” refers to how news publishers structure their articles to make them seem relevant and coherent to consumers, when in fact they have neither of those qualities. It’s a deception meant to hide the fact that consumers are being exposed to vast amounts of disconnected stories and facts about irrelevant things.

“Pseudo-events” are events that are deliberately staged to be reported upon by the news media, and in a way that benefits the people who have staged it. Press conferences and speeches to supporters are common examples. Pseudo-events have the superficial trappings of being important and significant, but they actually convey little or no useful or new information. Daniel Boorstin coined the term “pseudo-event” after observing the phenomenon.

[From other research, I found useful contrast between a “real” event with real consequences, and a pseudo-event that merely gives off the impression of being consequential: If the owners of a hotel want to boost their establishment’s value and appeal to customers, a legitimate strategy would be to improve some aspect of the hotel or their operations. This might involve hiring a better chef, installing new plumbing, or repainting the rooms, and then publicly announcing that the changes had been made. An alternative strategy, which could be just as effective at boosting profits, would be to hold a “pseudo-event” in the form of a banquet celebrating the hotel’s 30th anniversary. Important members of the community would be invited and praised, the owners of the hotel would make speeches about how it had somehow served the community, and members of the media would be invited and would almost certainly publish glowing news stories about the event. The perception that the hotel was better and more important than it actually was would be created in the minds of news consumers.]

[Thanks to social media and the proliferation of cable TV channels, we now have what could be called “pseudo news” shows, which superficially resemble respectable, traditional news broadcasts since they have charismatic presenters and move from discussing one recent event or pressing issue to the next, but which are actually entertainment and/or editorialization shows. Real events are brought up, but discussed in misleading ways. The viewer walks away from such a show thinking they are now well-informed, but in fact, they might have been better off not watching the show and never hearing about the event at all.]

Thanks to the information glut, we live in a “peek-a-boo” world full of nonsensical things that are presented to us in entertaining ways.

As a medium, television takes the worst and most distinctive elements of telegraphy and photography to new extremes. TV content is even more decontextualized, deceptive, irrelevant, and slanted towards amusement and shock value.

America now has a “TV culture,” whose features are antithetical to the nation’s former print culture. The deficiencies of TV as a medium make it fundamentally unsuited for supporting intellectual thinking or discourse.

Chapter 6 – The Age of Show Business

TV culture attacks literary culture

[Why does the author skip a discussion of radio culture by jumping from print culture to TV culture?]

American-made TV and film content is a major export. People in other countries consider it more entertaining than their own content. U.S. TV shows and films are more emotionally evocative, visually stimulating, and entertaining. [My years of traveling to other countries confirm this is true. In spite of how hollow and socially corrosive American pop culture is, it excels like none other at appealing to humans across the world. Additionally, the most successful TV shows and films indigenous to other countries usually copy elements from their American counterparts.]

All TV content is presented as entertainment. Even somber news shows are glitzy and entertaining.

The 1983 broadcast of the TV film The Day After was the most prominent attempt to use the TV medium for a serious, intellectual purpose. The film is a docu-drama about a nuclear war between the U.S. and U.S.S.R., and is jarring and disturbing to watch. The national broadcast was presented without commercial interruption, and was punctuated by comments from a panel of well-known American intellectuals including Carl Sagan and Henry Kissinger. Nonetheless, the broadcast failed in its attempt to foster meaningful discussion or insight into the topic, due to the limitations of the TV medium.

For example, the members of the panel never had a real “discussion” with each other–they delivered prepared talking points and avoided deeply addressing each others’ ideas.

A fundamental problem with TV as a medium is that people come across as stupid and/or boring if they pause to think about something, or if they appear uncertain about something. The medium is friendly to people who can give quick responses and who come prepared with rehearsed performances. Hence, TV is unconducive to most intellectuals and to “the act of thinking.” [This is extremely unfortunate, since the best ideas typically come after considerable time spent thinking, and since many great thinkers are not also great performers.]

Studies show that people instinctively prefer TV content that is visually stimulating and fast-paced. This means the sorts of TV programs that could be intellectual and serious, like two smart people sitting at a table having a long, focused discussion, are not considered as interesting. Since TV networks are always striving to find content that generates the highest ratings and hence profits, they naturally eschew those kinds of intelligent, serious programs in favor of flashy, entertaining programs.

[The rise of long-format podcasts in the 2010s partly contradicts this.]

In the U.S., all cultural content is filtered through the TV medium, and as such has acquired the negative qualities of typical TV programming. News programs are glitzy, shocking and entertaining when they should be serious, and religious broadcasts are also made to be entertaining rather than contemplative.

Because everything on TV is presented to Americans this way, Americans have come to expect everything to be entertaining:

  • Legal trials about serious crimes like murder are televised for entertainment and shock value.
  • Education courses include more and more videos that present subjects as entertainment.
  • The 1984 Presidential debates between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale were nothing like the Lincoln-Douglas Debates. Instead of spending a lot of time deeply discussing and debating a narrow range of related issues, the 1984 Debates only devoted five minutes to each issue, which was an impossibly short amount of time to discuss any of them in depth or for one participant to rigorously cross-examine the other. There was little focus on the candidates’ ideas or logic undergirding their ideas. Instead, it was a contest of who could get out the best “zingers” and who looked better in front of the camera. [The 2016 and 2020 Presidential Debates were infinitely worse.]

Chapter 7 – “Now…this.”

The expression “Now…this” is commonly used on news broadcasts when moving from one story to the next. It forces viewers to stop thinking about one thing and to focus on another. Its use shows how the news us full of disconnected events, people and ideas.

Studies of viewer preferences show that people are more likely to watch news broadcasts that have physically attractive anchors. News media companies have thus gravitated towards hiring attractive anchors to maximize their ratings and hence profits. [The profit motive is behind most of the dysfunctions in TV and internet news.]

Studies also show that humans are likelier to believe something if the person saying it appears sincere. This more intangible but still detectable quality is also used as a basis for hiring and promotion decisions at TV news stations. This is problematic because such things as skillful liars exist, and there’s no reason an off-putting people can’t be speaking the truth about something.

[To be fair, since this book was published, science has learned a large amount about how nonverbal aspects of communication in the forms of facial microexpressions, eye movements, body language, appropriateness of emotional displays, and other unconscious aspects of speech and behavior reveal deceit. In most cases, people’s instincts let them accurately detect dishonesty or malice.]

The fact that news anchors must recite their lines with a more-or-less upbeat tone, even when describing tragedies, lends a degree of unreality to TV news and prevents the TV medium from accurately conveying the sense of tragedy or loss associated with the event. [What’s the alternative? Should news programs relentlessly dwell on every report of a major loss of life so as to make sure viewers end up feeling depressed and disgusted? It’s a big world, and on any given day, a major loss of life or gruesome crime is happening somewhere, and portraying those events in ways that accurately conveyed their impacts would make the daily news too traumatic and emotionally draining for people to watch.]

[The author’s complaint that TV news anchors lack emotional investment in the stories they report on is obsolescent. The internet age has caused the news media landscape to fragment into thousands of smaller outlets catering to highly specific demographics of viewers. The anchors who lead these new programs are guilty of the opposite sin–overinvestment of emotion into their reporting, and to such a degree that any pretense of neutrality (and sometimes, adult maturity) is sacrificed. The inhuman detachment of 1980s TV news anchors has mostly been replaced by excessive outrage, crocodile tears, sanctimony, and sarcasm.]

“Now…this” is also often used as a lead-in for commercials. The seriousness of news broadcasts is undermined by the fact that they are punctuated by commercials, which are usually lighthearted.

TV news shows avoid complexity and move through a diverse range of stories and topics quickly.

Partly as a result of news broadcasts’ deficiencies, Americans are poorly informed about people and events outside of their country.

Again, the features and limitations of TV as a medium of communication alter how news is presented through it. TV news programs will inevitably gravitate towards presenting news content as entertainment, and as a series of disconnected, bite-sized stories. The result is in fact “disinformation” since it leaves viewers with the false impression that watching a news broadcast has made them well-informed about events, issues and important people, when in fact they aren’t.

TV news broadcasts also annihilate the sense that a “past” exists because all they depict is a churning of “present” events. Things that happened in the past are quickly muscled out by a deluge of new things. The perpetual focus on the present moment makes it harder for news consumers to notice lies and inconsistencies, as the news seldom has the time to dredge up older things that a person said or did that proved to be wrong or contradict what they are saying or doing now.

[Again, the internet age has turned the problem on its head. Because every famous person’s quotes and records of their actions are now available on the internet and instantly searchable, it has become easy to find every tasteless statement, lie, and contradiction, and to package them into a bite-sized product like a social media meme. With access to a lifetime’s worth of records, you can make any person look like an evil liar. If the TV culture of the 1980s was one where there was only ever a “present moment,” the new internet culture is one where you can pick whatever moment you want to live in. If you don’t like a specific politician, you can curate your social media and TV news bubble so as to only allow in negative content about them, including every lie or crass statement from decades ago. As a result, this is an age of cynicism and self-righteousness. While the TV news “gatekeepers” of the 1980s had their flaws and biases, they were more sensible and grounded in reality than the multitudes of amateurs who today manufacture biased memes and make extremist podcasts, and define what “reality” is for a large and growing share of the human population.]

Print culture encourages the opposite mindset. Since it is easy to turn pages back and forth in a book or newspaper, readers are aware of context and of the linear order of events, and they can spot lies and inconsistencies by cross-referencing different passages.

Aspects of Aldous Huxley’s dystopia, described in his book Brave New World, now exist in modern America. The government has no need to censor anything because its citizens are so occupied with silly pursuits and so easily misled by corporate-manufactured disinformation that they have no time or interest in uncovering the truth about the world. Specifically, accurate reporting about important events and people can still be found in America, as can thoughtful discourse about every issue and problem, but few Americans pay attention to it, largely because they consider it to be too boring. The market has given Americans what they want, and it is trash TV and dumbed-down news programs.

Even newspapers are mimicking aspects of TV news broadcasts. USA Today is the leading example of this transition.

Radio is more resistant to the transition, but it is declining nonetheless. Radio broadcasts increasingly resemble TV programs, in the worst ways.

Chapter 8 – Shuffle off to Bethlehem

Televangelists are the new faces of Christianity in America.

Episodes of the 700 Club are slickly made, entertaining, comforting, and superficially serious in tone.

Televangelist shows always focus on the preacher and his personality. God is never the central figure in the broadcasts, and instead exists in the background. Major religious themes like hallowed rituals and achieving transcendence through religion are absent.

Again, the TV medium forces televangelist shows to have these qualities.

The social and psychological meaning of religion in America has changed since people started watching televangelist broadcasts.

  • Traditional, in-person religious services happen in houses of worship, which are quiet, and, in the case of cathedrals, grand places. The central portions of houses of worship are also only ever used for religious ceremonies. As a result, the environments naturally lend themselves to serious and contemplative thinking among visitors. In a church, a person can really immerse himself in prayer and religious thought, and pull himself out of his everyday mindset. [In the modern era of skyscrapers and technological wonders, many of the old cathedrals of Europe are still awe-inspiring. You can appreciate how those same cathedrals would have made peasants feel the grandeur of God in the Middle Ages, when most people lived in terrible conditions and had very little mental stimulation each day. Yes, the form a religious house of worship takes has a major impact on the psychology of its adherents.]
  • By contrast, televangelist broadcasts are watched on living room televisions in private homes. The spaces where religious services thus occur are not consecrated, and the viewer does not associate them with anything especially divine or otherworldly. Viewers associate their own TV sets with entertainment and the secular world, which unconsciously affects how they perceive religious shows. It’s nearly impossible to get into the right mindset. [Will full-immersion virtual reality fix this?]

A valuable and authentic religious experience is enchanting, not entertaining.

Chapter 9 – Reach out and elect someone

The TV commercial is now a metaphor for American politics.

Capitalism is an efficient system for allocating resources only if certain conditions exist. One of those conditions is that buyers and sellers are rational, and the other is that they are just as informed as each other about market conditions and the quality of the good or service they are considering exchanging. In reality, these ideal conditions seldom exist.

Modern advertisements, and especially TV commercials, show how reality diverges from theory in ways that encourage capitalist systems to misallocate resources:

  • In a rational world, companies would only create ads that contained factual information about the quality of their goods and services, and consumers would coolly study different ads to empirically determine which product among the competing companies best satisfied their needs.
  • In the real world, ads contain little or no factual information about the goods or services being offered, and they are instead meticulously designed to prey upon the emotions, insecurities, and psychological weaknesses of consumers. Thanks to ads, consumers are frequently persuaded to spend money on things that don’t satisfy their actual needs well, or at all, and companies offering superior goods and services can go bankrupt if they don’t market themselves the right way.

[As I’ve mentioned before, and plan to discuss at greater length in a future blog post, this inefficiency could shrink and ultimately disappear in the future thanks to better technology. In the very long run, once posthumans and/or AIs take over civilization, the phenomenon of disingenuous marketing will probably vanish since consumers will be too smart and self-controlled to fall for such tricks. Being prey to one’s uncontrollable emotions and not having the cognitive capacity to remember and mentally compare the qualities and prices of different things will turn out to be uniquely Homo sapien problems.]

In modern America, politicians use TV commercials as their primary means of communicating with voters.

By necessity, commercials must be short, and must tell simple stories about things and offer simple solutions to problems. Years of seeing political commercials like these have shaped the expectations of American voters.

To succeed, modern politicians need “image managers,” and they must have personal appeal that comes across clearly on TV. Elections are no longer decided on the basis of which candidate is the better technical fit for the position’s demands; they are decided based on who looks better on TV.

Relevant credentials for holding elected office include:

  • Skills as a negotiator
  • Past success in an executive position
  • Knowledge of international affairs
  • Knowledge of economics

Public speaking ability, physical attractiveness, and debating skills don’t have any bearing on a person’s ability to make good policy decisions in a political position. Unfortunately, few American voters grasp this, and they routinely choose candidates based on those kinds of unimportant traits. The TV medium makes voters aware of those traits.

Commercials have primed Americans to vote for politicians that have the best TV personas.

Americans don’t vote in their own rational self-interests anymore; they vote for politicians who have the best TV images. The term “image politics” describes the phenomenon.

In the past, when America was a print culture, few people saw images of national politicians. They had no clue what different candidates looked like, and had to make voting decisions based on things they read in newspapers and pamphlets, and through discussions with their peers. A candidate’s “image” was not a factor.

Because TV culture is image-based, the medium has the immediacy and decontextualized qualities of photography. In infuses a mindset among its viewers that there is only a present moment, and that the past does not exist. This is partly why Americans know so little about history.

Even in Ancient Greece, a place associated with wisdom and intellectualism, government censorship of books was common (Protagoras).

George Orwell’s prediction that Western governments would eventually resort to book censorship as a way to control their citizens proved wrong. Instead, the same end has been achieved through the creation of fickle cultures in which people don’t want to read books. Huxley’s dystopia proved accurate.

In the U.S., TV censorship is done by the three big corporate media networks, not the government. This is also not what Orwell predicted. [But as internet culture shows, atomizing the media landscape and effectively eliminating the small clique of corporate gatekeepers brings a different set of problems. Now, nothing is censored, and anyone in America can look at whatever he wants. This has led to people self-segregating into highly specific demographics with their own realities and belief systems. It has also worsened the “information overload” problem, and made it harder for people to tell which information is reliable and which is not. ]

TV programs have muscled out books in the competition for Americans’ spare time.

Thanks to TV, Americans can’t tell the difference between entertainment and serious discourse anymore.

Chapter 10 – Teaching as an amusing activity

Sesame Street is a popular show for young children that is both entertaining and educational.

The author is skeptical of claims that any type of TV program can be very educational. Again, this owes to fundamental aspects of TV as a medium. TV watching is a passive, solitary activity, whereas effective classroom instruction is an interactive and social one.

Sesame Street encourages viewers to love TV, not school. In habituating children to TV watching, it and other “educational” programs encourage mindsets and skills that are unlike those they need to excel in the classroom.

TV is the first medium to merge teaching with entertainment. [Is the internet the second?] Learning is not supposed to be pleasurable.

Three commandments of educational TV content:

  1. “Thou shalt have no prerequisites.” A program can’t require the viewer to have previous knowledge, and it must stand alone as a complete package. The process of learning must not be depicted as a sequential one, where learning one thing establishes a foundation for one or more new things.
  2. “Thou shalt induce no perplexity.” All information that the program presents must be simple enough for anyone to understand. This does an injustice, since many concepts are not easy to grasp, and must be thought about again and again until the learner understands them.
  3. “Thou shalt avoid exposition like the ten plagues visited upon Egypt.” All content must be presented as a story, with everything depicted visually. The viewer should never have to read a dense passage of text on the screen or see an intellectual talking at length using complex language.

Classroom instruction is taking on more aspects of entertainment. “The Voyage of the Mimi” epitomizes everything about this trend. It is a 26-episode educational TV series focusing on lessons in science and math. A package of materials includes all the videos, along with worksheets and tests that teachers use in the classroom to accompany the footage.

[Embracing the opposite extreme, which would be an overly serious and intense teaching style where no effort was made to make lessons fun, would also create problems since many students wouldn’t mentally engage. Formal classroom settings are very artificial environments and are especially unnatural for children: For 99% of our species’ existence, there were no classrooms, and children learned things informally and each day from older children and adults, who interacted with them in informal settings or during work. ]

The effectiveness of that series and others like it is dubious. Studies show that students quickly forget almost all the new information they are exposed to in video lessons.

Similarly, people quickly forget most of what they see on TV news broadcasts. However, they remember more information if they read a newspaper. The act of reading is a better way to learn something than watching a video.

As a medium, TV is suited for entertainment, not learning.

[I think the author overreacted to the first intrusions of TV into mass education in the 1980s, possibly because he assumed the trend would continue as time passed, until someday, students only watched TV programs at school. Fortunately, that didn’t come to pass, and classroom instruction is still mostly traditional and didactic, involving a teacher standing at the front of the room where he talks and writes things on a blackboard or big screen.]

Chapter 11 – The Huxleyan warning

We are now living in a Huxleyan dystopia: People voluntarily occupy themselves with entertainment and trivialities. Politics are no longer serious.

If the situation worsens, America could experience “culture-death.”

The Orwellian dystopia is no longer a threat to the world. [It’s too early to say this. As China shows, new technologies have renewed the threat and effectiveness of government-directed mass surveillance and mass control. We could be headed for a future where it is technologically possible to monitor every human in real time, and to even infer what they are thinking and feeling.]

Americans live in an invisible, insidious prison.

America’s Huxleyan dystopia is hard to fight since no one has forcefully imposed it on us, it is not centrally planned, and it lacks a written doctrine like Mein Kampf. It is everywhere and nowhere.

As a technology, TV is destroying American culture. This is hard for Americans to see and to accept, since they have a uniquely strong faith in technology and progress. Convincing them that a technology is hurting them is a major challenge.

[Since the 1980s, Americans’ opinions of technology and progress have become schizophrenic. In the 2020s, there is widespread agreement that social media and biased TV news networks have damaged American culture and discourse, that smartphones and cleverly designed apps have made people addicted to their personal devices, and that civilizational progress has already halted or soon will, leading to a long decline of living standards and order. The preoccupation with global warming doomsday scenarios and the proliferation of post-apocalyptic future movies partly speak to the latter point. At the same time, Americans are unwilling to do much to address these problems, and very few of them are taking any personal measures to prepare for the doomsday futures they say they believe are coming.]

The author’s suggestions for fighting against TV culture:

  • Don’t try banning TV. It’s too popular, so there’s no hope of success, and proposing such a thing will only alienate people.
  • Start a cultural movement in which people take long breaks from TV watching. [Reminds me of today’s phenomena of “digital detoxing” and “social media breaks.”]
  • Ban political commercials.
  • Spread awareness of this book’s main points, including the fact that different types of media have different effects on culture and mindsets.
  • Ironically, an effective way to make people aware of the toxic effects of TV and of the stupidity of TV programming would be to air comedy skits on TV that mocked TV and showed how the programs stupefied their viewers. Use TV to lampoon TV.
  • Better public education.

The author’s passing analysis of personal computers as a medium:

‘For no medium is excessively dangerous if its users understand what its dangers are...To which I might add that questions about the psychic, political and social effects of information are as applicable to the computer as to television. Although I believe the computer to be a vastly overrated technology, I mention it here because, clearly, Americans have accorded it their customary mindless inattention; which means they will use it as they are told, without a whimper. Thus, a central thesis of computer technology–that the principal difficulty we have in solving problems stems from insufficient data–will go unexamined. Until, years from now, when it will be noticed that the massive collection and speed-of-light retrieval of data have been of great value to large-scale organizations but have solved very little of importance to most people and have created at least as many problems for them as they may have solved. ‘

[The analysis is both very wrong and very right. Personal computing devices have transformed society, the economy, and our daily habits so much since the 1980s that it’s hard to defend a claim that they have proved “to be a vastly overrated technology.” However, the author rightly predicted that computing devices paired with the internet would, like TV, inundate people with large amounts of irrelevant, decontextualized information. In fact, the problem has gotten worse since the amount of internet content available now is exponentially larger than the amount of TV content that was available in the 1980s. In the internet era, American politics have gotten more dysfunctional and childish, and elections are decided for more fickle reasons than in the 1980s. Today, Americans actually look back on the 1980s as a calmer and more hopeful era when people had better social skills. Ronald Reagan, whom the author bashes as being a superficial and dishonest man who cleverly exploited the TV medium to become President and hide his later mistakes, was much more intellectual, dignified and well-spoken than Donald Trump, who exploited social media (Twitter, specifically) to become President and to control the national political narrative during his term of office.

It’s certainly true that more data about a problem helps you to formulate a good solution to it, and that personal computing devices and the internet can be used to gather data about problems. However, the medium’s flaw is that bad data is mixed in with good data, it can be very hard for people to tell them apart, and human psychology naturally leads people to latch on to data that are psychologically or emotionally comforting to them. There’s no correlation between how comforting a belief is and how true it is.

The author’s point that the computer / internet era would enrich large organizations that found ways to leverage information technology to make money was very accurate. As of this writing, six of the top ten global companies with the highest market caps are technology companies that use customer data collection and analysis to make most or all of their money.

The author’s final prediction that computers will end up creating at least as many problems for ordinary people as they solve is debatable. Certainly, computing devices and the internet have created a variety of problems and worsened problems that existed during the TV culture era of the 1980s, but the new paradigm has also benefitted people in many important ways. For example, it has made commerce easier and more efficient since customers now have access to a much larger array of goods and services, which they can purchase by pushing a button, without having to leave home. It’s debatable whether computers an the internet have, on balance, not improved the lives of ordinary people.]