Month: September 2024

Plot:

“Past Tense” is a two-part episode of Star Trek Deep Space Nine that aired in January 1995. It is noteworthy because it was set now, late August / early September 2024. This was another time travel episode where an accident or alien force teleports the crew into the past. For those of you unfamiliar with the Star Trek franchise, Deep Space Nine is set over 300 years in the future, in a nearly utopian era where humans have overcome tribalism, materialism, ignorance, and all forms of injustice, and reap the benefits of radically advanced technologies. Most people dedicate themselves to the arts, science, family, or the exploration of space.

According to Star Trek’s back story, this condition was only achieved after a series of disasters in the late 20th and 21st centuries convinced humanity that war, capitalism, nationalism, and injustice would lead to extinction. One of those events was the “Bell Riots” of 2024, named after the pivotal figure “Gabriel Bell.” By 2024, the U.S. had become a very unequal and callous society, and it was a matter of federal government policy to imprison unemployed people in walled-off urban ghettoes called “sanctuary districts.”

Whatever initial hopes there were for the sanctuary districts to rehabilitate the underclass were dashed due to underfunding and government ineptitude. The sanctuary districts swelled with people, including criminals and the mentally ill, and the promises to provide them with jobs, medical care and other forms of support were broken. The districts effectively became open-air prisons where undesirable people could be dumped, out of sight and out of mind, so the rest of society could live unbothered. The bad conditions inside the ghettoes were not widely known in the rest of America because people just didn’t care.

In “Past Tense,” three Star Trek crewmen from the year 2371 are visiting San Francisco, which is an idyllic and highly advanced city in their time. However, one of their machines malfunctions and sends them back in time to the San Francisco of 2024. As if that isn’t enough of a problem, they materialize on the eve of a massive riot in one of the city’s sanctuary districts. The two male crewman–“Sisko” and “Bashir”–are mistaken for homeless people, immediately arrested by the police for vagrancy, and imprisoned in that sanctuary district. The female crewman, “Jadzia,” has the luck to run into a tech tycoon who takes her to his penthouse. This way, the viewer sees the extremes of 2024 American society.

As Sisko and Bashir explore the sanctuary district, we see it’s essentially a big homeless encampment where the residents have been given free reign over several square blocks of the city. Residential townhouses are crowded with people sleeping in the rooms, hallways and stairwells, and the streets are full of tents and crude shelters. The public spaces are full of crowds of people of all ages and types. Everyone looks unhappy, poor and dirty. Stern policemen with shotguns patrol the streets while muggings happen in the alleys. The long breadlines, overloaded government waiting rooms, and mentally ill residents going without medicine attest to the state’s failure to serve the sanctuary district’s needs.

As Sisko remembers from history class, the sanctuary district would soon erupt in a mass riot over these problems. During the mayhem, one group of armed residents seized control of a small government office and took the staff hostage, refusing to release them until all the sanctuary districts were dismantled. One of the hostage-takers, “Gabriel Bell,” used savvy and force of personality to prevent his comrades from killing the hostages at crucial moments during the ordeal. During the heavyhanded government response, National Guard troops raid the office, shooting Bell and several other hostage-takers dead. Hundreds more, many of them unarmed poor people caught in the crossfire, are also killed elsewhere. The high death toll (Sisko describes it as “One of the most violent civil disturbances in American history”) and Bell’s martyrdom shift public opinion in the U.S., and the sanctuary districts are dismantled nationwide.

While Sisko and Bashir initially plan to lay low, stay out of the way, and await rescue during this pivotal event, they are forced into action when Gabriel Bell is stabbed dead while trying to save them from muggers. When the riots start the next day, Sisko–who bears a resemblance to Bell–impersonates him to ensure historical events proceed correctly. Sisko succeeds, though he manages to narrowly escape death because the police gunshot proves nonfatal. Though Star Trek has always avoided explicitly describing how today’s world evolved into a techno-utopia, it’s clear that the Bell Riots was a key event that spurred the U.S. to adopt democratic socialism.

On the occasion of this episodes’ set date arriving, there have been a flurry of internet articles praising its prescience. After rewatching the episodes, I’m skeptical of that, and think they’re getting undue credit from people who like anything that highlight America’s problems. In fact, most of the elements in the show’s fictitious 2024 turned out wrong or depict the same reality that existed in 1995 when the episode aired.

Analysis:

Poor people are forced to live in government-run ghettoes in America. As noted, the sanctuary districts are essentially prisons. The police can force people into them at gunpoint for legal infractions common to the homeless (e.g. – public sleeping, no ID), as Sisko and Bashir were. Another character says some residents willingly agreed to move into the sanctuary districts after the government promised to get them jobs, but when the latter reneged, the people discovered it was impossible to leave. This prediction has failed to pass, and everyone still enjoys freedom of movement within America.

Yes, there is enormous wealth inequality in America. Yes, people geographically sort themselves by income, race and ethnicity (as they do in all countries). Yes, this has led to the formation of impoverished ghettoes in most U.S. cities, where conditions are no better than in the fictious sanctuary districts. However, the crucial difference is no one is stopping anyone from moving out of those ghettoes.

“There’s a law against sleeping in the streets.” The older policeman says this right after waking up Sisko and Bashir at gunpoint. Most cities and states have laws against camping in public places, though the enforcement of them has always varied. A 2018 ruling by the Ninth Circuit Court, which has legal authority over the whole U.S. West Coast, cited humanitarian concerns to forbid any authorities in that zone from enforcing such laws. Unsurprisingly, this led to a visible increase in the number of homeless people and their tents in places like San Francisco, and widespread complaints about their behavior.

In June of 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court overrode that ruling, and city and town level police have resumed ticketing and arresting the homeless. In San Francisco since then, the police have typically been respectful when evicting homeless people from sidewalks and public parks, giving them warnings to leave and then maybe a written citation if they refuse. They don’t deal with the issue by pressing loaded guns to heads of sleeping homeless people to wake them up. Efforts to roll back the homeless presence in West Coast towns and cities are only gradually going into effect, and in many places have not started at all.

Not carrying an ID card is a crime. The other legal violation that lands Sisko and Bashir in the sanctuary district is their failure to produce ID cards. Contrary to myth, it is not actually a crime in any part of America to be in a public area without an ID card. I think this was put in the episode to illustrate how draconian the legal system had become in the alternate 2024.

San Francisco is a very unequal place. Having visited San Francisco recently, I think the episode correctly predicted the level of wealth inequality it has today. Moreover, the best estimate is that there are 8,323 homeless people in the city, which is close to the sanctuary district’s population of 10,000. If you add in people who are not homeless but chronically unemployed and living in squalid conditions, the number of San Franciscans whose lives are comparable to the sanctuary district dwellers is some multiple of 8,323.

At the same time, the city boasts a sizeable upper-class, disproportionately comprised of tech sector workers (the tech tycoon who rescues Jadzia personifies San Francisco’s rich). Twenty percent of the city’s households have annual incomes over $200,000, and millionaires are common. The city is home to the super rich and the super poor.

But before we applaud Star Trek’s ability to predict this state of affairs, keep in mind things were essentially the same in 1994 when the episode’s script was written. For many decades, San Francisco has been an unequal city with an unusually large homeless population due to fair weather, lenient laws, and liberal politics. The share of the city’s population that is homeless might even be the same as it was in 1994 (the statistics are imprecise due to methodological problems counting homeless people). And while it wasn’t as large or as powerful as it is today, San Francisco’s economy had a large tech sector back then. Hewlett-Packard, Intel, and Apple were massively profitable companies whose principal facilities were just outside the city in Silicon Valley.

Unemployment is high. The sanctuary district partly exists because there are so many unemployed people. The female case manager also confirms to Sisko and Bashir that not enough jobs are available for the district’s inhabitants. After taking the Processing Center staff hostage, one of the hostage-takers demands is the reinstatement of the “Federal employment Act.” The episode clearly envisioned a 2024 bedeviled by rampant joblessness. This is wrong: the U.S. unemployment rate is only 4.2% and has been below 5% (widely considered the healthy level) for three years. If you ignore the 18 month spike due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the sub-5% era started in December 2015.

Computers are built into desks. Thankfully, no. Also, did the people who made the episode think about why anyone would want such a setup? Upgrading to a new monitor or PC would be harder if the devices were integrated into a piece of furniture. I don’t even see how this is more ergonomic or space-saving than having your monitor on top of your desk and your PC underneath it, like on a special shelf designed just for that purpose.

There are no cell phones. I didn’t see one in either episode. This is obviously completely wrong. If someone from 1995 stepped through a time portal into San Francisco today, they’d surely be struck by how many people were staring at little screens held a few inches in front of their faces.

City governments are full of incompetence. After the police take Sisko and Bashir to the Processing Center, they sit in a crowded waiting room for three hours before seeing a case manager. Used to the highly competent and well-resourced bureaucracies of the distant future, Bashir becomes outraged. I don’t need to do any kind of research to conclude that incompetence and delays are common features of municipal and local governments. That said, things weren’t much better in 1995, so this depiction of 2024 wasn’t much of a prediction, it was just more of the same.

America uses the Metric system. Wrong.

Cashless payments are common. In the sanctuary district, a government worker gives Sisko and Bashir “ration cards,” which they can use to get free food. They look like credit cards that are scanned or swiped. Jadzia also speaks of receiving “credit chips” after tricking the local authorities into believing she’s someone else and merely lost her ID. We never see paper money in the episodes or hear people speak of it. This depiction of 2024 is mostly accurate.

Though America has not gone fully cashless, electronic forms of payment are used for most in-person transactions, and many people can go weeks without having to use cash. Forms of “contactless” electronic payment that use near-field communication (NFC) are common now, and bear no resemblance to anything from 1994. I’m old enough to remember that year and the heavy use of cash and even credit card imprinters, and can say things are definitely different now.

There’s a housing shortage in California. The sanctuary district is visibly overcrowded and Sisko and Bashir have to spend hours walking around the first night looking for a townhome with free space for them. Ultimately, they give up and sleep in an outdoor stairwell. Housing has definitely become unaffordable in 2024, and government housing programs have ridiculously long waiting lists. The problems are particularly bad in California, and San Francisco is now one of the least affordable cities on Earth.

This problem is mostly due to a basic imbalance between supply and demand: the number of dwellings has not increased proportionately with U.S. population growth. Contrary to what you might think after watching “Past Tense,” cruel tycoons and the capitalist system have nothing to do with this: average people and government policy do. Overly restrictive laws and grassroots NIMBY activists have stymied the construction of new dwellings across the country, and the government’s decision to basically open the border has led to a recent surge in the illegal immigrant population, and their presence has helped drive up rents.

There’s a cure for schizophrenia. While wandering the sanctuary district, Bashir spots a man on the street who is clearly in the throes of a schizophrenic episode. Bashir is a doctor and says that a cure for the disease exists in 2024, and the fact that it has not been administered to the man is more proof of how callous American society is. Unfortunately, there still is no cure for schizophrenia. The best we can do is to ease and manage the symptoms with medicines and counseling and to keep schizophrenics surveilled as much as possible. Money is certainly a factor in determining the quality of care a sufferer receives, but because the receptivity to treatments varies across the schizophrenic population, some of them barely improve with even the best treatment.

There is a new polity in the Caribbean. While rubbing elbows with San Francisco’s rich at a party, courtesy of her rich patron, Jadzia overhears them talking about “the Pan Caribbean government.” It’s unclear whether this is a nation-state or some kind of federation of nation-states. No new countries have been created in the Caribbean since 1994, nor have the borders of any preexisting countries there shifted. During the same period, no new trade blocs or supranational political bodies have formed in the region.

Seafloor mining is about to begin. At the same party, another rich guys says his company has received permission from the Pan Caribbean government to start seafloor mining under their waters soon. This prediction is accurate, so long as the word “soon” is strictly adhered to. Across the world, potential seafloor mining projects are being held up by environmental challenges, but it looks like some of them are finally poised to start.

Europe is falling apart. Star Trek got one thing right: Rich people sure do get around in 2024! At the party they also talk about Europe’s implosion thanks to social and economic disorder. The continent is definitely less stable and more under threat today than it was in the 1990s thanks to demographic decline, mass illegal immigration, Brexit, the rise of far-right, the decline of the strongest economy (Germany), and renewed Russian aggression. However, it goes too far to say “Europe is falling apart.” The E.U. is still the world’s second largest economy, living standards remain high in most ways and are rapidly improving in Eastern Europe, and NATO is still intact and now strengthening to confront Russia.

“The Net” is still a common term. In the episodes, the internet is called “the Net.” Only those of us who remember the 90s will remember this archaic term and fully appreciate how cringey saying it is in 2024.

Videoconferencing is common. While pretending to be Gabriel Bell, Sisko uses a computer inside the Processing Center for a videoconference negotiation with the police chief. This prediction is correct, and video calls are very common in 2024. In fact, the technology we have is more advanced since such calls can be made using handheld devices instead of through large computers built into desks.

Links:

1. San Francisco has only recently started clearing out its large homeless encampments.
   https://www.kqed.org/news/12006541/sfs-homeless-sweeps-have-cleared-over-1200-tents-where-are-people-going
   https://abc7news.com/post/san-francisco-tenderloin-1-month-after-homeless-encampment-crackdown/15291543/
2. The 2024 homeless count in San Francisco was 8,323.
   https://hsh.sfgov.org/about/research-and-reports/pit/
3. Counting homeless people is notoriously error-prone, and there’s reason to believe the homeless share of San Francisco’s population is the same in 2024 as it was in 1994.
   https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/san-francisco-40-years-of-failure
4. Cash is now used in only 12% of in-store transactions in America.
   https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/cash-vs-credit-card-spending-statistics/
5. In 2022, 41% of Americans said they routinely went more than a week without using cash.
   https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/10/05/more-americans-are-joining-the-cashless-economy/
6. In 2024, San Francisco was ranked as the eighth least affordable city on Earth.
   https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/06/26/impossibly-unaffordable-housing-cities/74195450007/
7. Schizophrenia still has no cure.
   https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/4568-schizophrenia
8. After years of false starts, seafloor mining now looks poised to start.
   https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deep-sea-mining-could-begin-soon-regulated-or-not