Interesting articles, June 2024

Israel’s army staged a daring rescue of four of their citizens who had been held hostage in Gaza since October 7. During the sudden and ferocious attack, one Israeli commando and over 200 Gazans (mostly civilians) were killed.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hostage-rescue-new-details-gaza-operation-nuseirat-rcna156273

The expensive military pier the U.S. built to supply Gaza with aid has been rebuilt.
https://www.twz.com/sea/gaza-pier-repaired-aid-to-flow-soon

Israel’s high court has ruled that military draft exemptions for Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men must end.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-politics-ruling-military-service-orthodox-e2a8359bcea1bd833f71845ee6af780d

A Ukrainian drone attack deep inside of Russia destroyed one of the latter’s prized Su-57 stealth fighters on the ground.
https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-targeted-in-ukraine-strike-seen-in-new-higher-resolution-satellite-images

Russian defense missiles intercepted U.S.-made missiles that Ukraine fired at Crimea. The midair explosions from the two groups of missiles colliding hurled shrapnel down onto a packed beach, killing five Russian civilians and injuring more.

The Ukrainians almost certainly weren’t targeting civilians, and their missiles were probably headed for Russian warships or bases. Nevertheless, Russia has sworn revenge.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pppr719rlo

‘One year after Wagner uprising, Putin more powerful than ever’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-wagner-uprising-putin-more-063929686.html

Russia now has three captured M1 Abrams tanks. Each one is damaged in a different way. I bet their working parts could be combined to make one working tank.
https://youtu.be/yBhYcMb8Tng?si=kYf17lu3a_eyjV2e

The carousel autoloader found in Soviet and Russian tanks isn’t necessarily a fatal design flaw. If the Russians copied the gunpowder from the advanced ammunition they found in the captured German Leopard 2 tank, then their own tanks would become much less likely to blow up thanks to their own ammo cooking off.
https://youtu.be/6A4CqxGMBQw?si=DUc_wyPlbWI7QgHv

This is from 2008. Six years later, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7583810.stm

According to a new agreement, North Korea will supply Russia with weapons and guest workers in exchange for Russian technology and hard currency.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-north-korea-putin-kim-agreement-7221909867dbb999de8adb23604e3c79

The third variant of the British WWII Sten sub machine gun was one of the simplest and cheapest guns ever made. It’s interesting to see how those factors hurt its reliability and longevity, even compared to other Sten variants. The Mark III was truly a throwaway weapon.
https://youtu.be/W0qlOOE8G_k?si=LNbw1XOwYr5urr5A

The man who invented a small add-on device that turns any Glock into a full-auto weapon is a mechanical genius from Venezuela. He created the first device in the late 1980s while he was still a teenager and working at a gun shop. Only in recent years has the device started becoming common among criminals.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/feel-terrified-inventor-glock-switch-090429902.html

A photo of the top secret U.S. “Manta Ray” submarine was captured by a private satellite.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13567175/Top-secret-aquatic-drone-weapon-Manta-Ray-spotted-Google-Maps.html

‘Russia develops its first chipmaking tool — outdated by 30 years from day one’
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/russia-develops-its-first-lithography-tool-outdated-by-30-years-from-day-one

Nvidia briefly became the world’s most valuable company, with a market cap over $3.4 trillion. It was worth $418 billion just two years ago.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyrr40x0z2mo

Within days, Nvidia lost 16% of its stock value, resulting in a market cap loss of $500 billion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/business/dealbook/nvidia-stock-wipeout.html

Without using the term “singularity,” math whiz and high-ranking OpenAI staff member “Leopold Aschenbrenner” published a paper claiming that milestone is upon us. Radical changes thanks to AI will happen in just the next ten years.
https://situational-awareness.ai/

Here’s a counterpoint to his claims from Sabine Hossenfelder.
https://youtu.be/xm1B3Y3ypoE?si=FAZ30WLfCjA9i74T

Between 2026 and 2032, LLMs will gobble up all the written content humans have ever created.
https://apnews.com/article/ai-artificial-intelligence-training-data-running-out-9676145bac0d30ecce1513c20561b87d

Apple has made a major deal with OpenAI to install ChatGPT on its iPhones.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn5mejl89o

An internet writer describes how LLMs destroyed his workplace in 18 months and totally changed his own daily roles.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240612-the-people-making-ai-sound-more-human

Ah, memories…

‘In February, AI-based forgery reached a watershed moment–the OpenAI research company announced GPT-2, an AI generator of text so seemingly authentic that they deemed it too dangerous to release publicly for fears of misuse. Sample paragraphs generated by GPT-2 are a chilling facsimile of human- authored text. Unfortunately, even more powerful tools are sure to follow and be deployed by rogue actors.’
https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-will-we-prevent-ai-based-forgery

After quitting OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever has set up a company called “Safe Superintelligence Inc.,” whose goal it is to safely create an AI.
https://apnews.com/article/openai-sutskever-altman-artificial-intelligence-safety-c6b48a3675fb3fb459859dece2b45499

According to the 1999 movie The Thirteenth Floor, by June 21, 2024 we were supposed to have had AGI, full immersion virtual reality like The Matrix, lifelike digital worlds, and really cool-looking glass skyscrapers in L.A.
https://youtu.be/UCsR9iPvX0I?si=iLM31LuQMMcC5Q1u

This prediction was accurate:

“I think Joe Biden will run again in 2024 and I think he will run against someone with the last name ‘Trump.’ I do not know whether that is Trump or Trump Jr…”

Saagar said that in March 2021, when it was unclear whether Trump had a political future and whether Biden would want to stand for reelection.
https://youtu.be/grceJbuPUXI?si=JMZFlNQ-dRCHVMvc&t=5851

Engineering and logistics impose limits on how big wind turbines can get; physics does not.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-theoretical-maximum-size-of-a-wind-turbine

Corrugated steel sheets are a construction wondermaterial.
https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2021/12/18/the-rise-and-rise-of-corrugated-iron

There’s a reason why the classic Spielberg movies have slightly “off” colors that make them look old fashioned in a subtle way: the film stock used back then had a limited color range. It would be interesting to use AI to reverse those distortions and create rereleases of those films that are true to the actual colors on set.
https://youtu.be/kQmIPWK8aXc?si=7L2nPuUZ9aaVU_EM

A lack of passive safety features doomed the Fukushima nuclear reactors.
https://youtu.be/YBNFvZ6Vr2U?si=sCm_zthCZHgm12g_

Some forest fires are actually caused by bacteria. Just like a human-made compost pile, underground peat deposits can get extremely hot due to the metabolisms of bacteria that inhabit and eat them. Furthermore, sudden jumps in surface temperature caused by heat waves can cause the bacteria to raise the peat temperature by even more. The result is spontaneous combustion.
https://theconversation.com/zombie-fires-in-the-arctic-smoulder-underground-and-refuse-to-die-whats-causing-them-221945

‘Breeders also value posture, hoof solidity, docility, maternal ability and beauty. Those eager to level up their livestock’s genetics pay around $250,000 for an opportunity to collect Viatina-19’s egg cells.

“She is the closest to perfection that has been attained so far,” Martins said. “She’s a complete cow, has all the characteristics that all the proprietors are looking for.”’
https://apnews.com/article/brazil-cow-cattle-breeding-zebu-nelore-amazon-deforestation-9d58844f3e695ce878da838c10280f0d

For the first time, more aquatic animals were farmed than were caught wild through fishing.
‘Experts say the milestone in human history had been expected, as the hauls from fisheries have largely stagnated over the last three decades — largely because of limits in nature.’
https://apnews.com/article/fisheries-aquaculture-fao-united-nations-84a92a43387a4bea79dcdb278da14a59

And there are other ways the Drake Equation could be tweaked to result in humans being the only intelligent species in the galaxy. ‘According to Stern and Gerya, it’s likely quite rare for planets to have both continents and oceans along with long-term plate tectonics, and this possibility needs to be factored into the Drake Equation.’
https://gizmodo.com/drake-equation-update-fermi-paradox-intelligent-life-1851503974

Here are three, technically feasible megaweapons that aliens could use to destroy Earth from light years away.
https://youtu.be/tybKnGZRwcU?si=CFzXWpxbCRDdRkfP

The fourth test of the SpaceX “Starship” rocket was fully successful.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/06/science/spacex-starship-launch-fourth-test-flight-scn/index.html

Elon Musk has revolutionized the space rocket industry.
https://youtu.be/effFp6AnCWo?si=Dy_tsekGVR-vQAzw

Boeing’s troubled “Starliner” space capsule has had serious problems during its maiden crewed flight. The two passengers could be stranded on the ISS for weeks until it is known whether the capsule can safely bring them back home.
https://www.livescience.com/space/space-exploration/astronauts-stranded-in-space-due-to-multiple-issues-with-boeings-starliner-and-the-window-for-a-return-flight-is-closing

An unmanned Chinese probe returned rocks to Earth from the dark side of the Moon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c04447venm1o

The 1997 “Phoenix Lights” incident was one of the most credible mass UFO sightings ever.
https://youtu.be/GdAz93WL5To?si=Hl1di4ApIPBX5CTy

The FDA has rejected the first MDMA drug for treating PTSD because the medical studies supporting the drug were flawed.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-panel-rejects-first-mdma-treatment-deep-concerns-flawed-trials-rcna155325

Lung cancer, once a death sentence, has become more treatable thanks to new drugs.
https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/lung-cancer-treatment-deaths-5cfeb6fd

Researchers have discovered a gene that causes obesity in some people. Genetic engineering and new medical interventions will end the global obesity problem in the future. The average person will be taller, thinner, stronger, and healthier.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/health/obesity-genetic-wellness/index.html

A woman endured eight years of excruciating leg surgeries to increase her height from 5′ 5″ to 6′.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/28700728/model-frankenstein-surgery-shows-off-results/

Musings 6

It won’t be long before you’ll be able to feed a computer a script or the text of a book, and it will be able to produce a professional-quality audiobook or film. It would be so fascinating to finally see the great, unmade movies (like Stanley Kubrick’s epic biopic about Napoleon) or to see movies that stayed true to their written source material so they could be compared with what was actually made. Jurassic Park comes to mind as a famous movie that diverged greatly from the book. Imagine the same, CGI-generated characters in the same island setting, with the same style of soundtrack and cinematography, but with different dialog and different plot points than happened in the film we all know.

Will RV living and houseboat living be the norm in the future? Think about it: If humans won’t have jobs in the future, then they won’t have enough money to buy houses, making RVs and boats the only affordable option. Even a bus-sized recreational vehicle is only 1/3 the price of a typical American home, and a houseboat with the same internal volume is 2/3 the price. Also, without jobs, humans would have much less of a reason to stay tethered to one location and could indulge in their wanderlust. Additionally, thanks to VR being more advanced, people won’t need large TVs or computer monitors, easing the need for spacious living rooms.

Humans talking about the need to control AGI to ensure our dominance is not threatened are like Homo erectus grunting to each other about the need to keep Homo sapiens down somehow. It’s understandable for a dominant species to want to preserve its status, but that doesn’t mean such a thing is in the best interests of civilization.

It’s still unclear whether LLMs will ever achieve general intelligence. A lot of hope rests on “scaffolded systems,” which are LLMs that also have more specialized computer apps at their disposal, which they’re smart enough to know to use to solve problems that the LLM alone can’t.

Part of me thinks of this as “cheating,” and that a scaffolded system would still not be a true general intelligence since, as we assigned it newer and broader tasks, it would inevitably run into new types of problems it couldn’t solve but humans could because it lacked the tool for doing so.

But another part of me thinks the human brain might also be nothing more than a scaffolded system that is comprised of many small, specialized minds that are only narrowly intelligent individually, but give rise to general intelligence as an emergent property when working together (Marvin Minsky’s “Society of Mind” describes this). Moreover, we consider the average human to be generally intelligent even though there are clearly mental tasks that they can’t do. For example, through no amount of study and hard work could an average IQ person get a Ph.D in particle physics from MIT, meaning they could never solve cutting-edge problems in that field. (This has disturbing implications for how we’ve defined “general intelligence” and implies that humans actually just inhabit one point in a “space of all possible intelligent minds.”) So if an entity’s fundamental inability to handle specific cognitive tasks proves they lack general intelligence, then humans are in trouble. We shouldn’t hold future scaffolded systems to intelligence standards we don’t hold ourselves to.

Moreover, it’s clear that humans spend many of their waking hours on “mental autopilot,” where they aren’t exercising “general intelligence” to navigate the world. An artificial mind that spent most of its time operating in simpler modes guided by narrow AI modules could therefore be just as productive and as “smart” as humans in performing routine and well-defined tasks.