Interesting articles, September 2023

Small Ukrainian suicide drones destroyed two Russian cargo planes on the ground and damaged two more.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/moment-of-drone-attack-that-destroyed-il-76s-at-russian-base-seen-in-infrared-image

Russian ground crews responded by putting old tires on top of their planes when parked on the ground.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-really-is-using-tires-to-protect-its-bombers-from-attack

Ukraine used cruise missiles and drone boats to fatally damage a Russian sub and landing ship docked in Sevastopol.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-submarine-landing-ship-struck-in-attack-on-sevastopol

Elon Musk refused Ukraine’s request to use his Starlink satellites to facilitate an attack on Russian warships docked in Crimea last year.
https://apnews.com/article/spacex-ukraine-starlink-russia-air-force-fde93d9a69d7dbd1326022ecfdbc53c2

The first British Challenger 2 tank donated to Ukraine was destroyed in combat. A Russian land mine or artillery explosion immobilized it, the crewmen ran away, and then a Russian antitank missile finished it off.
https://youtu.be/1SrWjCic3QM?si=2ztgUQ-fC0FtnTbo

Here’s footage of a German-made Leopard 2 tank in Ukrainian service fighting with a Russian T-72. The Ukrainian tank scores a direct hit on its opponent on the first shot, but because the shell that it fired is a high explosive round instead of a special penetrator round, it fails to go through the T-72’s armor. Nevertheless, the force of the impact and of the ensuing explosion against the exterior of the tank causes enough superficial damage to the T-72 to render it incapable of further action, and it has to turn back to the repair shop. This is called a “mission kill.”
https://youtu.be/cMLYwhG7mmM?si=XsVu_RPLECqdyF24

‘When it comes to tanks, in particular, the lesson of the Ukrainian war is that tank-on-tank battles have become a rarity—which means that the relative sophistication of a tank is no longer as important. Fewer than 5% of tanks destroyed since the war began had been hit by other tanks, according to Ukrainian officials, with the rest succumbing to mines, artillery, antitank missiles and drones.’
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-new-warfare.html

Both sides in the Ukraine War continue to field “mutant” armored vehicles that marry whatever old weapons they can find to Soviet-era vehicles.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/mutant-soviet-armored-vehicles-come-153000354.html

Russia has gotten so desperate for ammunition and weapons that Putin is trying to get them from the pariah state of North Korea.
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-putin-missile-0d70f5190df1088ebe53e8ca19f8e9c9

Russia’s arms industry has proven itself surprisingly resilient, largely because it has found ways around some of the Western-imposed sanctions. Nevertheless, it’s not making tanks and artillery shells fast enough to meet the demands of the Ukraine War.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-manufacturers-making-7-times-023446584.html

This analysis of Russian tank losses in Ukraine gives insights into Russia’s production capacity and bottlenecks. Their factories are producing relatively small, steady quantities of modern, new tanks (T-90M and BMP-3), but the other 85% is old stuff made in the Soviet era that they have pulled from storage and dusted off. Overall, Russia is losing tanks on the battlefield faster than they can replace them from all sources. They really need help from other countries.
https://youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgs?si=-C62tmmrKZh599-l&t=1901

The Kremlin keeps saying that it fears NATO will attack it, and that Russian militarization and seemingly aggressive foreign policy actions are actually defensive. In reality, this is a lie that Russia’s elites peddle to brainwash average Russians and sympathetic foreigners. If they ACTUALLY thought a NATO invasion was a threat, they never would have depleted their forces along the borders of Norway and Finland as much as they have.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-forces-near-norway-20-171622974.html

Ironically, Russia accuses the U.S. of waging “hybrid war” against it.
“U.S. and British reconnaissance planes are not only working to identify objectives and targets but are showing where our anti-air defenses are working so next time they could help. So, you can call this whatever you want to call it, but they are directly at war with us. We call it the hybrid war but it doesn’t change the reality.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-directly-war-moscow-russian-233830418.html

Overall, the front line in Ukraine has been stable this year.

The U.S. Army has adopted a new “light” tank called the M-10 Booker. It is heavier than a Soviet T-55 main battle tank, has virtually the same cannon, has the same number of crewmen, and costs 26 times more money.
https://www.army-technology.com/news/us-army-spends-258m-for-more-m10-booker-vehciles/?cf-view

The Russian T-90 tank is an iterative improvement upon the T-72. Were it not for political and marketing reasons, it should have been named the “T-72C.” A key improvement is the storage of excess ammunition in a new bustle at the rear of the turret. This reduces (but doesn’t eliminate) the odds of a catastrophic cook-off of the tank’s own ammunition.
https://youtu.be/8LsBbQOL0JY?si=quXfKTr4slhF9sS1

This 2019 article on Yevgeny Prigozhin is weird to read knowing what we know today.
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/30/685622639/putins-chef-has-his-fingers-in-many-pies-critics-say

Azerbaijan’s army launched a mass attack against its breakaway province of Nagorno-Karabakh, defeating its militia in a few days and establishing control over every part of its territory for the first time in 30 years. The self-declared republic’s government surrendered and announced it will disband by January 1. As of this writing, at least 80% of the province’s ethnic Armenian inhabitants had fled to Armenia.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/28/europe/nagorno-karabakh-officially-dissolve-intl/index.html

The F-35 is actually an excellent fighter plane. Even though it is slower and less maneuverable than its predecessors, those factors are not as important in air-to-air combat anymore.
https://youtu.be/OeZ1DrnQl5c?si=3GORwvohMBjHbhiK

After its pilot had to eject from it in midair, an F-35 continued flying on its own. It took the Air Force over a day to find the crash site.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/f-35-jet-reported-missing-authorities-pilot-ejects-mishap-officials

This article about Sudan has it all: The Ukraine-Russia War expanding into a new front, precision suicide drone attacks, an evil PMC propping up dictatorships for a cut of their natural resources.
https://youtu.be/1M5iq5x29mY?si=oby8-5WH8xDeFYU0

‘France to withdraw ambassador, troops from Niger after coup’
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/france-to-withdraw-ambassador-troops-from-niger-after-coup-macron

There is such a thing as a magazine-fed “tactical crossbow.”
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2023/09/11/potd-ar-6-tactical-crossbow/

The “ALOFS Repeating Shotgun System” was invented in the 1920s and let people turn their single-barrel shotguns into repeating shotguns.
https://youtu.be/63xFGmlsrww?si=utelQKLPnGai0qdL

This guy tests out the standard cold weather jacket Red Army troops had in WWII and he says it’s not as good as modern winter coats made of performance fabrics.
https://youtu.be/GyoAgqUVj8k?si=h6MeTStXppU14Oac

‘The Auspicious Incident (or Event[3]) (Ottoman TurkishVaka-i Hayriye, “Fortunate Event” in ConstantinopleVaka-i Şerriyye, “Unfortunate Incident” in the Balkans) was the forced disbandment of the centuries-old Janissary corps by Sultan Mahmud II on 15 June 1826.[4][5] Most of the 135,000 Janissaries revolted against Mahmud II, and after the rebellion was suppressed, most of them were executed, exiled or imprisoned. The disbanded Janissary corps was replaced with a more modern military force.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auspicious_Incident

Sonar doesn’t sound like it does in the movies.
https://youtu.be/AaO6jQEmfoY?si=WatTh9Dv85Dtv-bB

Biplanes only made sense in the early years of aviation, when engines had poor thrust-to-weight ratios.
https://youtu.be/0P0K9BSuQqE?si=XckiNNjaV-mxAbME

This prediction from a year ago was wrong: ‘House prices could fall by up to 20 percent next year if there’s a recession, experts warn – and property in some areas of the country is overvalued by as much as 72 percent.

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, was pessimistic about the housing market in May, but he has now made his forecasts even more bleak…’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11150999/Is-America-verge-new-housing-collapse-Mountain-West-Sun-Belt-overvalued-72.html

A prediction from 18 months ago: ‘While an inversion generally indicates a recession is coming within the following 12 months, it can sometimes take years. The curve inverted in 2005, but the Great Recession didn’t start until 2007. The most recent inversion, in 2019, prompted fears of a recession — which materialized in 2020, but that was due to Covid-19.’
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/economy/inverted-yield-curve/index.html

Elon Musk is a genius, the richest man in the world, and also has a huge number of future predictions that badly failed.
https://thenextweb.com/news/elon-musk-most-ridiculous-predictions

By 2025, all new Tesla cars will have bidirectional charging, meaning they will be able to transfer surplus power from their batteries into the power grid. “The dream for many is a scenario in which millions of electric cars are all connected to the grid most of the time. They could absorb lots of renewable energy from solar panels during the day and feed it back into the grid after dark. The grid would become like the tides — distributing zero-emissions energy all day every day and reclaiming it at night.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/tesla-confirms-game-changing-feature-050000765.html

‘[Tesla] pioneered the use of huge presses with 6,000 to 9,000 tons of clamping pressure to mold the front and rear structures of its Model Y in a “gigacasting” process that slashed production costs and left rivals scrambling to catch up. In a bid to extend its lead, Tesla is closing in on an innovation that would allow it to die cast nearly all the complex underbody of an EV in one piece, rather than about 400 parts in a conventional car, the people said.’
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gigacasting-2-0-tesla-reinvents-100727153.html

Unionized workers at the Big Three car companies went on strike to demand better pay and job security. Problems at those companies are principally being driven by Tesla, which is more innovative and has a non-unionized workforce.
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/15/uaw-worker-strike-electric-vehicle-industry

Waymo’s driverless cars may already be safer than human drivers.
https://www.understandingai.org/p/driverless-cars-may-already-be-safer

Thanks to better technology, “surge pricing” will someday be common for all types of things.

‘Amazon changes the price of its products on average every 10 minutes, using millions of real-time data points to benchmark against competitors and track demand surges.

“It will eventually be everywhere,” says Robert Cross, who created a computerised dynamic pricing model for Delta Air Lines in the early 1980s before doing the same for hotel giants Marriott, Hyatt and InterContinental Hotels Group.

As high inflation erodes margins and improvements in technology make dynamic pricing cheaper and more practical for businesses to implement, the temptation to deploy the pricing strategy is growing in industries that have so far remained largely untouched by the method. Bars, restaurants and bricks-and-mortar retailers have historically only adopted dynamic pricing for basic discount offers, but that could change.’
https://www.ft.com/content/d0e3bcb5-b824-414e-bfac-4c0b4193e9f0

GPT 3.5’s ability to play chess at the expert level, even though it wasn’t trained on the game’s rules, suggests it could have a limited degree of general intelligence.
https://twitter.com/GrantSlatton/status/1703913578036904431

‘Suleyman predicts fully autonomous AI is less than a decade away, and to “buy time,” the U.S. government should leverage “choke points” by restricting the sale of critical technologies to China and other adversaries. That includes high-tech microchips made by Nvidia and cloud computing services from the likes of Google, IBM and Amazon.’
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/06/mustafa-suleyman-made-his-name-on-ai-now-he-wants-d-c-to-rein-it-in-00114126

ChatGPT can now communicate with people verbally.
https://dnyuz.com/2023/09/25/chatgpt-can-now-respond-with-spoken-words/

“ChatGPT can now browse the internet to provide you with current and authoritative information, complete with direct links to sources. It is no longer limited to data before September 2021.”
https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1707077710047216095

Microsoft released “DALL-E 3,” it’s most advanced text-to-image AI yet.
https://youtu.be/sqQrN0iZBs0?si=rgCYNpoHK0TwijEu

‘Autonomous, AI-powered submersibles would minimise the risks to human lives from deep-sea exploration and would allow faster mapping of ocean floors. But what researchers ideally want is to go one step further: build submersibles that can explore for indefinite stretches of time, thereby speeding up the process of scanning the planet’s deepest spots.’
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/9/14/titan-implosion-is-ai-the-future-of-deep-sea-exploration

ChatGPT badly defeated a group of Wharton MBA students in a classroom assignment to come up with creative business ideas.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mba-students-vs-chatgpt-innovation-679edf3b

A company called “HeyGen” has made an app that converts video of someone speaking in one language to a video of them saying the same things in a different language. The translation mimics the real sound of their voice, and their lip movements are automatically altered to match the new words. I hadn’t predicted this would happen until the 2030s.
https://twitter.com/mrjonfinger/status/1701075571630047525

‘Deepfakes of Chinese influencers are livestreaming 24/7’
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/09/19/1079832/chinese-ecommerce-deepfakes-livestream-influencers-ai/

Most NFTs have collapsed in value.
https://dappgambl.com/nfts/dead-nfts/

Meta’s new virtual reality teleconferencing technology is incredible.
https://youtu.be/MVYrJJNdrEg?si=5Yxqocmvu2js2EqE

Joseph Marie Jacquard invented a loom in 1805 that halved the number of workers needed to make patterned fabric. Loom workers mad about losing their jobs tried to kill him.
https://youtu.be/K6NgMNvK52A?si=GwPAWvVS_gHTP7CR

In 250 million years, the continents will merge into one “supercontinent” that will get so hot that mammals and humans will only be able to live on parts of its coastal areas. If we are still around by then, I predict we will use various technological solutions to surmount nature.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/sep/25/supercontinent-could-make-earth-uninhabitable-in-250m-years-study-predicts

Apple is finally abandoning its proprietary charger cords, meaning USB-C is set to become the global standard.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/13/tech/iphone-15-usb-c-charging/index.html

Andrew Lincoln Nelson’s surreal artwork is kind of what I envision organic-synthetic hybrid life forms will look like in the distant future.
http://www.nelsonrobotics.org/robotchild_web/

To protect coral from extinction as ocean temperatures rise, some scientists want to collect samples of all endangered species and cryogenically freeze them for possible reintroduction to the wild at some point in the future when conditions are right again. Why not do this for all species?
https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197792650/coral-reefs-bleaching-restoration-climate

The genomes of 60 different species of potato have been sequenced, setting the stage for the creation of genetically engineered super potatoes.
https://www.futurity.org/potato-pangenome-food-crops-2968602/

The first known dog-fox hybrid has been found. Foxes have 74 chromosomes, dogs have 78, and the hybrid has 76.
https://www.newsweek.com/shelter-rescues-injured-animal-worlds-first-dog-fox-dogxim-1827353

The U.S. canceled its controversial “DEEP VZN” program which sought to collect exotic disease samples from across the world and send them to U.S. labs for biodefense research.
https://thebulletin.org/2023/09/the-us-government-cancels-deep-vzn-a-controversial-virus-hunting-program/

The weight-loss drug Wegovy will go generic in 2038. I foresee a drop in global obesity rates and associated healthcare spending starting then.
https://www.drugs.com/availability/generic-wegovy.html

An AI program that visually analyzes microscopic tissue samples could help treat male infertility. Men with that condition have to get sections of one of their testicles surgically removed so technicians can find the few healthy sperm that are in them, and then inject those sperm into ova in an IVF lab. Computers can scan the samples 1,000 times faster than a human.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66608073

A pig kidney surgically implanted in a braindead man functioned as well as a human kidney for two months. It was just removed for careful lab analysis to refine the pig organs further, and the man’s family turned off his life support. The contribution that they made for science could help save thousands of lives in the near future.
https://apnews.com/article/pig-kidney-transplant-xenotransplant-83dfb5e6d022ca72039a821cc6bc00ef

A genetically engineered pig heart was transplanted into a human for only the second time.
https://www.wbal.com/article/616915/3/surgeons-perform-second-pig-heart-transplant-trying-to-save-maryland-man

‘A boy saw 17 doctors over 3 years for chronic pain. ChatGPT found the diagnosis’ [tethered cord syndrome]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/boy-saw-17-doctors-over-204224194.html

Being a psychopath is partly genetic, and we’re finding some of the responsible genes.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2656184

The FDA was warned that the decongestant chemical “phenylephrine” probably didn’t work in 2007. It took this long for them to finally remove it from shelves. How many billions of dollars did people waste in the interim buying it?
https://apnews.com/article/sudafed-decongestants-phenylephrine-pseudoephedrine-fda-0f140bafae9a500c5fba05fe764ecb66

Lab-grown diamonds are getting cheaper and more popular.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/a-diamond-pricing-puzzle.html

An undiscovered, Earth-sized planet could be orbiting 50 AUs from the Sun.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/aceaf0

NASA’s new report on UFOs contains nothing new. At least it frankly mentions “alien” and “extraterrestrial” instead of falling back on the clumsy alternative terminology found in other recent U.S. government reports.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66812332

Review: “Terminator Genisys”

Plot:

In this fifth and worst (so far) movie in the Terminator franchise, familiar ground is trod again, but the viewer’s expectations are also upended. The movie opens in 2029, as a strike team led by rebel leader John Connor and his aide Kyle Reese attacks Skynet’s main base. As in past films, the attack succeeds, but not before a Terminator uses a time machine to go to 1984 to kill Sarah Connor. Kyle Reese is sent through the machine to protect her, but here the plotline twists: while John Connor and his men are watching Reese teleport into the past, a Terminator emerges from the back of the room, runs up behind John Connor and infects him with a nanomachine “disease” that transforms him into an advanced Terminator.

From that point on, the Terminator Genisys manages to have a story that is overly complicated but very stupid at the same time (just like too many action films made in the last 10 years). I won’t waste my time describing every contrivance and every side-plot that exists only for fan service. Suffice it to say Sarah Connor, Kyle Reese, and a friendly T-800 played by elderly Arnold Schwarzenegger team up to destroy Skynet, and evil robot John Connor goes back in time to stop them. He’s so advanced that it’s doubtful whether the other three can stop him.

The rehashing of scenes, events (2029 final attack on Skynet, Reese and Terminator teleporting into 1984 from the future), and characters from earlier movies is a testament to how unoriginal it is, and how hard it banks on fan service to have any appeal. But even that appeal is minimal: While Kyle Reese and Sarah Connor were relatable characters with depth of personality in the first film, they are one-dimensional caricatures in Genisys. The development of a romance between the two in the first film was believable and tragic, whereas in this remake, the lack of personal chemistry between the actors playing them is striking.

Schwarzenegger’s performance in the first movie was so stolid and intimidating that it became iconic. Now, he seems like an aging father that is reduced to being a background character in his high-strung teen daughter’s chaotic life. Having the homey and vaguely comical name “Pops” encapsulates his diminishment. The terrifyingly relentless and resilient T-1000 from Terminator 2 makes a guest appearance and is easily destroyed this time around. In summary, all the same notes from the better, earlier films are struck, but they ring hollow.

Terminator Genisys is the worst film in the Terminator franchise, and I understand why the next movie, Terminator Dark Fate, canceled it out by pretending like its events never happened. If there ever was a cash-grab devoid of any creativity or passion, this is it. Don’t watch it.

Analysis:

First, bear in mind I’m skipping any futuristic elements of this film that I discussed in my reviews of the other Terminator movies. You can read those here:

Robots will have superhuman reflexes. During the introductory combat scene where the humans raid Skynet’s base, the machine forces consist of humanoid T-800s, tilt-engine “Hunter-Killer” aircraft, and “Spider Tanks.” While the first two of those have been in every previous Terminator film, the last is new. Spider Tanks are quadrupedal fighting machines with plasma guns for arms. Overall, they’re about the size of small tanks. Each Hunter-Killer aircraft carries a Spider Tank attached to its belly, and they are air-dropped into the middle of the base within minutes of the human attack. One of the Spider Tanks starts delivering accurate fire at the human infantrymen while it is still in free-fall, and it continues shooting after hitting the ground at high speed.

A Spider Tank

This depiction of future robots having superhuman reflexes will prove accurate. In fact, the fire control systems in modern tanks and naval guns might already have the same capabilities as the Spider Tank aiming systems (able to hit moving targets with bullets while the tank or ship is also moving). If not, incremental improvements will surely close the gap. More generally, physical feats demanding fine dexterity, flexibility and bodily coordination that only the most skilled and highly trained humans can do today, like hitting a moving target with a bullet while you are also moving, throwing a dart onto a tiny bullseye from eight feet away, or doing a gymnastics performance that would win an Olympic gold medal, will be easy for multipurpose, human-sized robots by the end of this century. We will be surpassed in every way.

Machines will learn a lot about you from a single glance. At the start of the fight scene between Pops and the younger T-800 that has just emerged from the time portal, there’s a shot showing things from the latter’s perspective. We see the usual red tinting and text overlaid across its field of view. Simple graphics also show the T-800 scan Pops, identifying him as a fellow android and also identifying his gun (a Remington shotgun) along with its range.

This is accurate. Today’s best neural networks can already describe what they see in an image (a task called “visual question answering”) with over 80% accuracy. The multi-year trend has been one of steady improvement, leaving no doubt they will be as good as we are (presumably, 99% accurate) in the near future. Machine abilities to understand what they see in videos (“video question answering”) are less advanced, but also steadily improving. Again, there’s every reason to expect them to ultimately reach human levels of competency.

Machines could also potentially have much better eyesight than humans thanks to a variety of technologies like telephoto lenses and digital sensors that are more light-sensitive than human eyes, able to capture light from wavelengths that are invisible to us, and able to see finer details. Things that look blurry to us, either due to long distance or because the object is moving, would look clear to a machine that could be built with today’s technology.

Additionally, computers have the potential to process and analyze the contents of what they see faster than the human brain can. As a result, a machine could comfortably watch a movie at 10 times the normal speed–which would look like a disorienting blur of motion and shapes to us–and accurately answer whatever questions you had about it at the end. In a split second, it could notice levels of detail that most humans would need several minutes of staring at a still image to absorb.

These abilities will have many uses for machines in the future, a subset of which will involve combat. Yes, like the T-800 in the film, a fighting machine in just 20 years will be able to visually recognize humans, even at long distances and under poor light conditions, as well as the weapons and other gear they were carrying. At a glance, it would know what your weapon’s capabilities were, along with how much ammunition you were carrying. It could use that information to its advantage by doing things like keeping track of how many bullets you fired so it would know the exact instant you ran out and needed to switch magazines. From its initial glance at you, the fighting machine would also know how much body armor you were wearing, allowing it to jump out and target your unprotected areas during that brief pause in your ability to fire.

Robots will be able to detach parts of themselves to perform specific functions. Unlike in Terminator 2, this film’s T-1000 detaches parts of his own body when it is useful to his mission. At one point, as Kyle, Sarah and Pops are speeding away in a van, part of the T-1000’s hand separates so it can stick to the back of the vehicle and serve as a tracking device. When it catches up to them, the T-1000 turns its arm into a javelin, which it then throws at Pops, impaling him against a wall.

The T-1000 preparing to throw a spear made of metal from his own body

Being able to detach body parts will be a very useful attribute for many types of future robots. At the very least, it would let them replace their damaged or worn-out parts easily. The ability could also make them more survivable. For example, imagine a robot butler falling down a deep well and getting trapped because the walls were too slick for it to climb out and they also blocked the radio distress signals it sent out. Rather than wait to run out of power and rust away, the robot could detach one of its arms and throw it up and out of the well. After landing on the ground outside, the arm would send its own distress signal and/or use its fingers to crawl towards help.

That of course requires the robot’s systems to be distributed throughout its body, with the head (if it has one), torso, and each limb having a computer, a battery, sensors, and a wireless chip for communicating with the rest of the robot if physically severed from it. The redundancy, survivability, and functional flexibility of such a layout will be especially valuable for combat robots, which are expected to take damage but to also to complete critical tasks. If a combat robot like a T-800 were cut in half at the waist, the bottom half could still run towards and kick the enemy while the upper half used its arms to crawl towards him and attack. If blown to bits, the T-800 body parts that were still functional could still perceive their surroundings, communicate with each other, and try to put themselves back together again or to complete the mission to the best of their abilities separately. Fighting with machines like this would be very hard and demoralizing since every part of one of them would need to be neutralized before it was safe.

There will also be advantages to some robots carrying smaller, task-specific robots inside of themselves to be released when needed. Imagine an android carrying a small quadcopter drone in an empty space in its chest cavity. It could open a small hatch on its chest to release the drone or even spit it out of its mouth. The flying drone could transmit live aerial footage to give the android an overhead view of the area, letting it see things it couldn’t from ground level. A combat machine like a T-800 might carry flying drones that were fast enough to chase down cars and blow them up with a bomb, or inject their occupants with lethal toxins from a stinger.

Very advanced machines that won’t exist until the distant future could have organic qualities letting them “assemble” smaller robots internally and then expel them to complete tasks.

Getting back to the point, the movie’s depiction of an advanced robot being able to detach parts of its body and then throw them at people and things to accomplish various ends is accurate. The robots won’t be made of liquid metal, so the projected objects will be of fixed forms, but the end result will be the same. A future combat machine could detach its hand and throw it at the back of a van that was speeding away, the hand would grab onto something on the back door, and it would turn on its location-finding system to effectively turn itself into a tracking device. Alternatively, the combat machine could release from its body a small flying drone that could overtake the van and latch onto it, or at least follow it in the air.

Gradual replacement of human cells with synthetic matter could turn people into machines. A major plot twist is that John Connor has been “converted” into a Terminator through a process in which a swarm of microscopic machines rapidly took over all his cells, one at a time. Within a few minutes, he transformed from the hero of the human resistance to a minion of Skynet. Important details about the conversion process are never explained (including whether the machines are micro- or nanoscale), but the persistence of John’s memories and personality even after being turned into a robot indicates the machines mapped the fine details of his brain structure. It stands to reason that the same information was gathered about all the other cells in his body before they were all transformed into synthetic tissue.

John Connor having his body taken over by microscopic machines

Something like this could work, though it will require extremely advanced technology and the conversion would take longer than it did in the film. The process would involve injecting the person with trillions of nanomachines, which would migrate through their body until one was inside of or attached to each cell (a typical human cell is 100 micrometers in diameter whereas a ribosome–the quintessential organic nanomachine–is 30 nanometers wide, a size difference of 1 : 3,333). The nanomachines would spend time studying their assigned cells and how they related to the cells around them. Large scanning machines outside of the person’s body would probably be needed to guide the nanomachines, send them instructions, collect their data, and maybe provide them with energy.

After the necessary data on the locations and activities of all the person’s cells were gathered, the conversion process could start. The nanomachines already in the person’s body might be able to do this, or a new wave of specialized “construction” nanomachines might need to be introduced. Every cell would be broken down and the molecules reassembled to make a synthetic cell or some other type of structure of equal size. For example, if a person wanted ultra-strong bones, nanomachines would break down each bone cell and reuse its carbon molecules to make matrices of carbon nanotubules.

A typical human cell is much larger than microorganisms like viruses and some bacteria. A nanomachine could be as small as the latter.

The utmost care would be taken to control the speed of the conversion and to monitor the person’s life signs to make sure it wasn’t getting out of control and killing them. As each original cell was replaced, its successor would be tested again and again to ensure it mimicked the important qualities of its predecessor.

The conversion of the brain would, by far, be the most important part of the process, and hence the part done with the greatest care and oversight. Our memories, personalities, and consciousness directly arise from the microscopic structures of our brain cells and their intricate patterns of physical connections to each other. Even small mistakes transforming those cells into synthetic analogs would effectively “kill” the person by destroying their mind and replacing it with a stranger’s. For that reason, the procedure will bear no resemblance to what happened in the film, where Kyle Reese was apparently jabbed with a needle full of microscopic machines and then spent some time kicking and screaming as he felt them take over his cells. Instead, it will happen in a hospital room, with the patient surrounded by medical machines of all kinds that were monitoring and guiding the nanomachines and equipped to pause their work if necessary and to render lifesaving aid. And instead of minutes, it will take days or weeks. Multiple sessions might be needed.

What would be the point of this? Reengineering the human body at the cellular level would let us transcend the limitations of biology in countless ways. We could use electricity for energy, be bulletproof, directly merge our minds and bodies with machines, and achieve a level of substrate plasticity that would set us up for further iterations of radical augmentation that we can’t imagine.

Microscopic machines will be able to rapidly phase-change. In the final fight between John Connor and Pops, John’s technological abilities are fully utilized. While they are grappling, John’s body rapidly dissolves into a cloud of his constituent microscopic machines, which flow around Pops in pulses, delivering several concussive blows to the front of his body. The particles then rapidly reassemble into John’s body behind Pops, and John’s right arm hardens into a sword which he uses to chop off Pops’ arm. This means John’s microscopic machines managed to transform from a vapor cloud into a solid object as hard as high-grade steel in one or two seconds.

Pops getting popped by a robot dust cloud

I think it’s possible to create microscopic machines that can form into swarms and then work together to change the phase (solid, liquid, vapor) and macro-shape of the swarm, I doubt the swarms will be able to move around or switch phases that fast.

A foglet

In the 32 years since Terminator 2 came out and introduced the world to the idea of a shapeshifting robot, scientists and engineers have made pitifully little progress developing the enabling technologies. It only exists in the realm of theory, and the theoretical technology that is the best candidate is the “foglet” (also called “utility fog”). Scientist J. Storrs Hall conceived of it in 1993:

In essence, the utility fog would be a polymorphic material comprised of trillions of interlinked microscopic ‘foglets’, each equipped with a tiny computer. These nanobots would be capable of exerting force in all three dimensions, thus enabling the larger emergent object to take on various shapes and textures. So, instead of building an object atom by atom, these tiny robots would link their contractible arms together to form objects with varying properties, such as a fluid or solid mass.

To make this work, each foglet would have to serve as a kind of pixel. They’d measure about 10 microns in diameter (about the size of a human cell), be powered by electricity, and have twelve arms that extrude outwards in the formation of a dodecahedron. The arms themselves would be 50 microns long and retractable. Each foglet would have a tiny computer inside to control its actions. “When two foglets link up they’ll form a circuit between each them so that there will be a physical electrical network,” said Hall, “that way they can distribute power and communications.”

The arms themselves will swivel on a universal joint at the base, and feature a three-fingered gripper at the ends capable of rotating around the arm’s axis. Each gripper will grasp the hands of another foglet to create an interleaved six-finger grip — what will be a rigid connection where forces can only be transmitted axially.

The foglets themselves will not float like water fog, but will instead form a lattice by holding hands in 12 directions — what’s called an octet truss (conceived by Buckminster Fuller in 1956). Because each foglet has a small body compared to its armspread, the telescoping action will provide the dynamics required for the entire fleet to give objects their shape and consistency.

https://gizmodo.com/why-utility-fogs-could-be-the-technology-that-changes-5932880

A swarm of foglets could coalesce into something that looked like Kyle Reese and felt solid to the touch. They could then transform into something like a fluid or dense gas and “flow” around a person standing nearby, though I don’t know if the foglets could exert enough force against that person’s body to hurt them. The swarm could then re-form into Kyle Reese behind them. However, they wouldn’t be able to create a sharp, hard sword that could cut off a T-800’s metal arm: Hall calculated that foglets could only form into objects that are “as tough as balsa wood.” So while foglets could mimic solid objects, they will lack hardness and durability.

Even if foglets can’t “punch” you or turn into swords that can stab you, they’ll still be able to hurt you. Imagine a swarm of foglets in a vapor state enveloping you and then coalescing into a net ensnaring your body. What if they waited for you to breathe some of them in and then those foglets transformed into solids to clog up your lungs? Likewise, they could clog up the internal moving parts of any guns you had, rendering you defenseless.

Links:

  1. Progress in “visual question answering”
    https://paperswithcode.com/task/visual-question-answering
  2. Progress in “video question answering”
    https://paperswithcode.com/task/video-question-answering
  3. An interview with J. Storrs Hall about his “foglets”
    https://gizmodo.com/why-utility-fogs-could-be-the-technology-that-changes-5932880